Help!! Hedge help!

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  • Itsamazing777
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 11-14-12
    • 12602

    #1
    Help!! Hedge help!
    I did a 4 team parlay which I rarely do, for 50 bucks for fun.
    It consists of 1. Giants -3. 2. Under 48 for that game
    3. St Louis cardinals game 1 ml. 4. Under 7 for that game

    The first two have already hit.
    Is there anyway to hedge to gurantee a profit?
    Pays out 650.
    If this was a 3 teamed it would be an easy hedge but the 4rth is throwing me off
    I don't usually do this so any hedging expert way in please!
  • EXhoosier10
    SBR MVP
    • 07-06-09
    • 3122

    #2
    there are 4 scenarios that could play out still. Make a system of linear equations with 4 variables and solve
    a = original parlay net profit
    b = boston + under net profit
    c = boston + over net profit
    d = st louis + over net profit
    z = total profit

    a wins) 650 - b - c - d = z
    b wins) -50 + parlayodds*b - c - d = z
    c wins) -50 - b parlayodds*c - d = z
    d wins) -50 - b - c parlayodds*d = z

    solve for b, c, d, and profit (find an online matrix calculator). Assuming boston -118, stl +113, over7 -115, you'll want to make the following parlays
    bos + under = 184.83
    bos + over = 202.67
    stl + over = 175.78
    for a profit of 86.72 (assuming the o/u doesn't push. in that case, you'll either win 162 if bos wins or lose 56 if stl wins).
    Comment
    • Itsamazing777
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 11-14-12
      • 12602

      #3
      I see. May let it ride, who knows.....
      Comment
      • EXhoosier10
        SBR MVP
        • 07-06-09
        • 3122

        #4
        if you're doing $50 parlays, surely(/hopefully) $80 isn't going to make or break you. Let it ride
        Comment
        • Itsamazing777
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 11-14-12
          • 12602

          #5
          No not at all, just was wondering if there was anyway to collect half the payout, but I see there is not
          let it ride!
          Comment
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