Machine Choice

[Machine Choice]

I am ready. My specialty will be the two-team parlay.

[icsky3]

That's where i made a LOT of money 2 seasons ago.... i mean a lot like more than i needed... heheh.

[diogee]

Good luck this baseball season Machine. Hope you have another solid year.

[spongerat]

i am ready as well to see your picks! is there a reason you use 2 team parlays?

[Pair of 5s Sir]

I don't usually post on other guys threads but I wanted to take an opportunity to congratulate you on you CBB plays. I keep a tight track on my selections, using spreadsheet and post documentation in order to stay in the legit category.

I have been using your % as a benchmark for myself. Moreover, to this date we are running close together at 59%. Our method of selections is quite different, where I use contrarian strategies to conclude my selections.

I am looking forward to baseball season as well.

Keep up the good work. I don't intend to post in your CBB thread but I wanted to let you know that the Machine is my benchmark. Feel free to take a peak at my selections.

See you at the window.

The Contrarian

[ryanspeer2001]

I personally stay away from baseball parlays unless I find two heavy dogs and think it may be worth it. But best of luck too you in '09.

[pbateman]

Go Astros

[Machine Choice]

First wager of the year.

$100 to win $15,000

Date placed:
Feb 12, 2009 8:06pSingle #135802382 Baseball - Futures (Game) Moneyline
Odds to win the 2009 World Series
All wagers have action. Singles only. Max $300
(3012) Kansas City Royals 150/1 Sun@10:00p
US$ 100.00 to win US$ 15000.00

[outforseason36]

Why donate $100?

[ryanspeer2001]

Why donate $100?

I don't see it as a donation as much as it is good value.

I would cap the Royals at around (80-100)-1 which is far better than 150-1. Hes getting a very good clip on them but yes either way it is a HELL of a long shot.

[Machine Choice]

Why donate $100?

Remember the Rays....that's all I'm going to say. Last to first. Worst to first.

Royals have some guys ready to break out (Gordon, Guillen, Crisp, Butler, Aviles), two solid starters in the top of their rotation (Meche, Greinke), a lock-down closer (2d best in the AL) in Soria, and a first-class manager. Their farm system has three propsects in AAA who are superstars at that level and could possibly come up this year. Off-season acquisition of Mike Jacobs from Marlins (32 HRs last year).

Last year the Royals got 75 wins and finished 4th, this year they are better and their division is weaker. 87-89 wins will get the division. If Brian Bannister returns to his 2007 form, look-out!

[Chi_archie]

did you win your prop bet on K.C wins o/u last year?

are we doing heaven's gate money management still?

[Machine Choice]

did you win your prop bet on K.C wins o/u last year?

are we doing heaven's gate money management still?

Yes to both questions. KC had to win 72 games, and they did. I'm using Heavens Gate even now in CBB. I'll definitely use it in baseball. Good luck to you this year.

[milton50]

What the heck is the Heavens Gate Money Management system? I tried to google it and cant find anything about it....

[Machine Choice]

What the heck is the Heavens Gate Money Management system? I tried to google it and cant find anything about it....

BANKROLL GUIDELINES ("HEAVEN'S GATE")

Flat betting does not produce the best profit and it is also a grinding, unrewarding affair. Instead, I have devised "Heavens Gate" which consists of small wagers that increase after two consecutive wins.

1. Divide your bankroll by 11. This is your first "base unit."

2. When placing your bet, never wager on more than one game in the same time slot. For instance, if you're betting a game at 1 p.m., wait until until 4 p.m. to place your next wager. The reason for this is because the result of the first game determines how much you will be betting on the second game.

3. After two consecutive wins, increase your bet by half of the previous bet. Example: Cubs win a $50 bet at 1 p.m., Dodgers win a $50 bet at 4 p.m. So the next day (or during a late game) your next bet would be for $75. If you then win two $75 bets in a row, your next bet is for $112. This means that you will never have more than three bets on any given day (weekend) or two bets on any given weekday. The goal is to make THE BEST 1 to 3 bets possible each day in order to get your reverse pyramid going.

4. Whenever you lose, you always go back to your "base unit", which is 1/11th of your total new bankroll. Example: if your total bankroll is $2400 after suffering a loss, your first "base unit" bet will be $2400 / 11 = $218

NOTES:

a) 2-team parlays are acceptable and count as a single play. However, they should be restricted to the most lock-worthy plays. Also, if you have a 2-team parlay and the first game begins at 3:30 and the second game is at 7:00 p.m., you can't make anymore wagers until the parlay concludes ( you'll be restricted to the late West Coast games or wait until the next day). Again, this is because the result of the parlay will influence how much you bet on your next game.

b) Each day, pick the best play possible. It is reasonable and preferred to have only 1 play each day; however, if you select more than one play, remember the time slot rules so that you can adjust your wagers accordingly after each play concludes. Remember, your goal is to get a win streak going over a series of days, not to just "fill up a card" with plays that you favor.

CONCLUSION

What will this system yield? Well, it depends on how good you are at picking the best possible 1 to 3 plays each day. In baseball, I gun for 60%. Using the above system over the last three years, I have found that I will go back and forth with the book, trading two wins for a loss, or two lossses for a win for sometimes weeks at a time. During this process (which I call "dancing"), my bankroll fluctuates in relatively small increments. But then it happens: I will reel off a 10 to 13 game win streak that pretty much guarantees a profitable season. I have had times after 10 or 11 wins in a row, where I have needed to call my book in order to get a limit increase to meet the requirements of my reverse pyramid. Those are good times.

If you are a good capper, and you use the above system WITHOUT FAIL or deviation, you will very rarely lose more than four games in a row, but you WILL have spans of winning five to seven games in a row many times. Due to the reverse pyramid betting strategy, this means that you're making solid profits during even a small winning streak. As your bankroll grows, so does your 1/11th base unit that you execute after each loss. This makes betting very fun and exciting.

"Heaven's Gate" refers to every wager you make after winning 12 in a row. I have been there three times in my career.

[brooks85]

Ride the snake

http://video.yahoo.com/watch/460399/2541309

that betting strategy sounds awesome. I look forward to your picks.

[milton50]

BANKROLL GUIDELINES ("HEAVEN'S GATE")

Flat betting does not produce the best profit and it is also a grinding, unrewarding affair. Instead, I have devised "Heavens Gate" which consists of small wagers that increase after two consecutive wins.

1. Divide your bankroll by 11. This is your first "base unit."

2. When placing your bet, never wager on more than one game in the same time slot. For instance, if you're betting a game at 1 p.m., wait until until 4 p.m. to place your next wager. The reason for this is because the result of the first game determines how much you will be betting on the second game.

3. After two consecutive wins, increase your bet by half of the previous bet. Example: Cubs win a $50 bet at 1 p.m., Dodgers win a $50 bet at 4 p.m. So the next day (or during a late game) your next bet would be for $75. If you then win two $75 bets in a row, your next bet is for $112. This means that you will never have more than three bets on any given day (weekend) or two bets on any given weekday. The goal is to make THE BEST 1 to 3 bets possible each day in order to get your reverse pyramid going.

4. Whenever you lose, you always go back to your "base unit", which is 1/11th of your total new bankroll. Example: if your total bankroll is $2400 after suffering a loss, your first "base unit" bet will be $2400 / 11 = $218

NOTES:

a) 2-team parlays are acceptable and count as a single play. However, they should be restricted to the most lock-worthy plays. Also, if you have a 2-team parlay and the first game begins at 3:30 and the second game is at 7:00 p.m., you can't make anymore wagers until the parlay concludes ( you'll be restricted to the late West Coast games or wait until the next day). Again, this is because the result of the parlay will influence how much you bet on your next game.

b) Each day, pick the best play possible. It is reasonable and preferred to have only 1 play each day; however, if you select more than one play, remember the time slot rules so that you can adjust your wagers accordingly after each play concludes. Remember, your goal is to get a win streak going over a series of days, not to just "fill up a card" with plays that you favor.

CONCLUSION

What will this system yield? Well, it depends on how good you are at picking the best possible 1 to 3 plays each day. In baseball, I gun for 60%. Using the above system over the last three years, I have found that I will go back and forth with the book, trading two wins for a loss, or two lossses for a win for sometimes weeks at a time. During this process (which I call "dancing"), my bankroll fluctuates in relatively small increments. But then it happens: I will reel off a 10 to 13 game win streak that pretty much guarantees a profitable season. I have had times after 10 or 11 wins in a row, where I have needed to call my book in order to get a limit increase to meet the requirements of my reverse pyramid. Those are good times.

If you are a good capper, and you use the above system WITHOUT FAIL or deviation, you will very rarely lose more than four games in a row, but you WILL have spans of winning five to seven games in a row many times. Due to the reverse pyramid betting strategy, this means that you're making solid profits during even a small winning streak. As your bankroll grows, so does your 1/11th base unit that you execute after each loss. This makes betting very fun and exciting.

"Heaven's Gate" refers to every wager you make after winning 12 in a row. I have been there three times in my career.

I like this alot!!!!...never heard of it before but I went through all of my NCAA and NBA plays for this year so far and I would have been up alot more using this system...

Thanks for sharing and I will be trying this out during March Madness...the hard part is picking 1 game. =)

~Milton

[Machine Choice]

I like this alot!!!!...never heard of it before but I went through all of my NCAA and NBA plays for this year so far and I would have been up alot more using this system...

Thanks for sharing and I will be trying this out during March Madness...the hard part is picking 1 game. =)

~Milton

You should be able to bet two or three games per day and still use this system, provided that you have spent enough time handicapping each game. That's the hard part.

[bobbybux]

i'm just a rookie that's just learning the ropes, but i'm with you machine!!!! your basketball picks were great.

[lambogb]

You should be able to bet two or three games per day and still use this system, provided that you have spent enough time handicapping each game. That's the hard part.

if by handicapping u mean reading your picks

[joanapoker]

Will u be posting during the preseason??

thx

[MrMonkey]

Thanks Machine for the Heavens Gate money system! Also appreciated your CBB system with the Day/X example! I won't be able to do nearly as well as you but gave me a basis to research CBB games properly! On SBR 4 months and this is the most I've seen anyone give out! Thank you sir!

MrMonkey

[Dana4U]

The Heavens Gate system is working well for me in basketball right now. Not being able to bet but 2 games during any week day is difficult if you are used to placing 8 bets or something higher. So this forces you into choosing your two best plays carefully - which in itself is advantageous to a successful outcome. Looking forward to the baseball season!

[Machine Choice]

The Heavens Gate system is working well for me in basketball right now. Not being able to bet but 2 games during any week day is difficult if you are used to placing 8 bets or something higher. So this forces you into choosing your two best plays carefully - which in itself is advantageous to a successful outcome. Looking forward to the baseball season!

I'm glad Heaven's Gate is working for you. It enforces discipline and maximizes win streaks. That's the whole point.

[milton50]

I'm glad Heaven's Gate is working for you. It enforces discipline and maximizes win streaks. That's the whole point.

Machine,

With Heavens Gate...if I have a $50,000 bankroll for 1 sport do you still advise using the Heavens Gate system? Do you have a strategy for taking money out of your bankroll for profit? It seems as though once I increase to a certain level the only place I can lay bets is in Vegas...is that what you have found?

Thanks,
Milton

[Machine Choice]

Machine,

With Heavens Gate...if I have a $50,000 bankroll for 1 sport do you still advise using the Heavens Gate system? Do you have a strategy for taking money out of your bankroll for profit? It seems as though once I increase to a certain level the only place I can lay bets is in Vegas...is that what you have found?

Thanks,
Milton

At the end of each season (NCAAB, MLB, NCAAF) I cash-out whatever I have that is in excess of $5,000. I start each season fresh with $5,000.

I take 3 two-week breaks throughout the year. I'm in the middle of one now. I'm waiting for NCAA tourney. I will start the tourney with $5,000 and roll right into baseball without stopping. My next scheduled break (and cash-out) after that is Sept 1-14.

During the season, if my bankroll gets above $15K, I will cash-out to keep it at or near $15K. Since I am a US citizen I am not able to maintain huge balances and get large payout checks without raising the suspicion of my bank. This is why I would like to live in Vegas.

[milton50]

Perfect...thanks for the reply...that is exactly what I was looking for.

~Milton

[Karate]

machine! i loved your ncaa pick and cant wait for the tourney to start to have you back, and i hope you have the same sucess in baseball as you do in basketball will be tailing you as soon as you start posting!
BOL

[rightmow]

machine i too have been trying heavens gate and just
finished an 8 game streak. Have not hit more than two or three
losses in a row. See ya in a week.

[gambit718]

Machine, do you start at preseason?

[Machine Choice]

The KC Royals have hit more home runs this spring training than any other team in baseball. They are also tied for 2d best Spring record of all AL teams.

Both of these things mean nothing....probably. Or they could mean everything.

Eight days to go.

[solobass]

Machine,
I am pretty excited about baseball, and have been handicapping/betting games already. Thanks for your money management insight, i will spend some time with it later today. One thing I have found is very few people here on SBR share any methodology, thanks again for being antithetical to that trend.

Milton50, whenever I am going to put that much cash up and feel confident, even same day jet to Vegas makes economical sense ESPECIALLY in this day and age where everything we do is less and less transparent.

Everyone have a most prosperous day!

[Machine Choice]

Geezuz Christ! Start the ****ing season! It's April..

[TheLock]

Yeah the WBC has us backed up all the way to Sunday night for the opener.

I'm pretty sure Hammels is going to sit fir the opener vs Braves. Precautionary.

[Machine Choice]

Bankroll: $2,192

Saturday

Braves (4.5 innings) -140
$200 to win $143