Smells like a Tampa win

abovepar · 09-30-13, 01:51 PM

Now Tampa is a slight underdog. Setting up just like the Arizona vs San Diego game a week ago. Line flops and right before the start large money in on San Diego. Padres hammered dbacks. I may be wrong but it seems to be the case.

ebelisle22 · 09-30-13, 04:25 PM

Originally posted by abovepar

Now Tampa is a slight underdog. Setting up just like the Arizona vs San Diego game a week ago. Line flops and right before the start large money in on San Diego. Padres hammered dbacks. I may be wrong but it seems to be the case.

tampa is not an underdog yet. they are still favorites...

riffraff24 · 09-30-13, 05:01 PM

Yeah well JJ is on Tampa so everything is out the window

abovepar · 09-30-13, 09:04 PM

Is it to early to call it?

ebelisle22 · 09-30-13, 09:13 PM

yes

abovepar · 10-01-13, 08:39 AM

Price shuts the rangers down. So many people thought he would give up 3+. Joe madden knew exactly who to start.

mrginandtonic · 10-01-13, 09:03 AM

Nice call yesterday. What do you see in today's game?

abovepar · 10-01-13, 12:08 PM

Thanks. It was a pretty easy cover for saints ML as well. I was tempted to take spread plus Tampa run line but went with the "safe" play.
Tonight's game is a little tougher. Cueto back after injury was good in two games but against two weak line ups. He could be dominate. Liriano has been solid and reds struggle against lefties.
Pitt is the hotter team and at home. A loss here would make the season they worked so hard for all for nothing after 21 straight losing seasons. Mccutchen is the best player on the field. Definitely don't believe in Dusty Baker.

Pitt and under are my leans.

abovepar · 10-01-13, 12:45 PM

Liriano has not given up a HR to a left handed batter all year. Only given up 2 at home all year. In a close game I look at HR given up because that can break open a game and be the difference. Scattered hits and walks shouldn't be the difference. The team to homer just like last night should win. Mccutchen has homered 3 times against cueto.

Just my opinion but this game seems more likely to favor the pirates.

mrginandtonic · 10-01-13, 12:53 PM

In terms of line movements, do you think the line was set to bring money towards PIT? Since they are all those things that you said plus they just swept CIN? Just thought that the opening line was set just a little low.

retire/early · 10-01-13, 01:03 PM

I like the bucs in this spot also...reds haven't hit well in a while. Pitt sweep this past weekend puts another doubt in the reds minds...My money is on bucs and under

abovepar · 10-01-13, 01:14 PM

Before I seen the line I figured between -120/-140 for Pitt. Pitt has won 3 straight and at home. BUT Cueto is by far the better pitcher if he's on hence Pitt only being a slight favorite.

A dominate pitcher can control the game. I see this being a close game and definitely playoff baseball. I feel the line will drop before the first pitch. If it continues to rise then I would think that actually favors Pitt.

abovepar · 10-01-13, 01:23 PM

Just seen the dodgers and kershaw line at -150. Baseball is hardest/easiest sport to cap due to anything is possible and anyone can lose.

BUT how can you not love the dodgers for game 1? Hottest team the last few months and the best pitcher (maybe Harvey) pitching. The braves to me have been the "worst" playoff team all year. At any given time they can go cold and have so much trouble scoring.

abovepar · 10-01-13, 10:32 PM

Pitt looks good. That will be one hell of a series with the cards. Probably favor the pirates. They've proved they can win in big spots. This season isn't a fluke.

mrginandtonic · 10-01-13, 10:34 PM

I'm glad CIN is out cuz I think they give the Dodgers more trouble.

abovepar · 10-02-13, 12:27 PM

I don't see how you can back Salazar. Only reason the line is close is because home field and the winning streak.

Salazar pitched ok in September but against weak lineups, cws and mets. Cabrera was out against det. Salazar will throw strikes and Tampa will hit.

I'm also a strong believer in teams hitting better for certain pitchers. Not that they try harder but maybe they are more relaxed and the atmosphere for that game is better. Look at the run support he's gotten in the last month or two against solid teams.

Ill take Tampa again on the road against a win streak. Cleveland had a good season but it ends tonight.

ebelisle22 · 10-02-13, 03:22 PM

tampa bay hitting < cleveland hitters

jessetk313 · 10-02-13, 03:37 PM

who you on ebelisle?

ebelisle22 · 10-02-13, 03:39 PM

Originally posted by jessetk313

who you on ebelisle?

cleveland sir

abovepar · 10-02-13, 05:42 PM

Line is still the same. Money must be in on both sides. All the talk is for Cleveland. I think this favors Tampa.

abovepar · 10-03-13, 09:43 AM

3 straight... Obviously I still like the dodgers. Football is back and my attention will be there. Good luck guys

abovepar · 10-03-13, 08:57 PM

Dodgers looking good. I know I've kinda picked the favorites according to the spread but definitely have my reasons why. Hoping this trend continue. Winning feels good.