Tired arm.

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  • billysink
    Restricted User
    • 03-29-09
    • 5172

    #1
    Tired arm.
    Here's a guy with a tired arm. Edinson Volquez of San Diego dropped 2 mph on his sinker ball over last two starts and his strike % was way down to 47% his low number for the year. It is his primary pitch. He was down over 3 MPH on his fastball. The boxscore is not indicative of his command last start.

    He hasn't had a good start in Colorado his last 3 years, either he walks half a dozen or just gets hammered. Not sure what the best approach to making money here will be until the TT's and half game lines are out. Not even sure there will be value when they do but have a look.

    Charts for Volquez last three for those who are interested.

    12-Jun
    Pitch Type Avg Speed Max Speed Avg H-Break Avg V-Break Count Strikes / % Whiffs / % SNIPs / % Linear Weights
    FA (Fastball) 93.71 95.42 -3.86 8.92 3 3 / 100.00% 2 / 66.67% 3 / 100.00% -0.641
    SI (Sinker) 92.79 95.22 -6.78 6.02 49 32 / 65.31% 7 / 14.29% 26 / 60.47% -1.0625
    CH (Changeup) 83.76 86.9 -6.61 0.9 23 17 / 73.91% 5 / 21.74% 12 / 66.67% -1.436
    CU (Curveball) 79.09 83.31 7.7 -7.4 31 17 / 54.84% 5 / 16.13% 12 / 46.15% 0.9076
    30-Jul
    Pitch Type Avg Speed Max Speed Avg H-Break Avg V-Break Count Strikes / % Whiffs / % SNIPs / % Linear Weights
    FA (Fastball) 93.45 95.36 -3.96 8.86 4 4 / 100.00% 2 / 50.00% 3 / 100.00% -0.3578
    SI (Sinker) 93.38 95.5 -7.67 6.39 45 30 / 66.67% 3 / 6.67% 19 / 55.88% -1.3014
    CH (Changeup) 84.17 88.44 -7.65 1.39 27 14 / 51.85% 2 / 7.41% 9 / 40.91% -1.0501
    CU (Curveball) 79.02 81.08 8.33 -8.25 29 17 / 58.62% 4 / 13.79% 15 / 55.56% 0.9777
    06-Aug
    Pitch Type Avg Speed Max Speed Avg H-Break Avg V-Break Count Strikes / % Whiffs / % SNIPs / % Linear Weights
    FA (Fastball) 91.32 92.11 -3.21 9.01 6 5 / 83.33% 0 / 0.00% 2 / 66.67% -1.1797
    SI (Sinker) 91.49 95.19 -7.29 6.27 49 23 / 46.94% 1 / 2.04% 19 / 42.22% 1.3701
    CH (Changeup) 82.77 87.22 -7.52 1.19 17 9 / 52.94% 1 / 5.88% 5 / 38.46% 1.6848
    CU (Curveball) 78.1 81.67 8.74 -8.09 35 26 / 74.29% 12 / 34.29% 20 / 68.97% -1.7871
  • El Nino
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 05-03-12
    • 18426

    #2
    Great minds think alike

    Finished my write up and came into the subforum and saw this.

    I also think the over could work as a pseudo hedge here. Volquez averages over 4 runs of support and in the last 2 months he's averaged 6.5 runs of support on the road. I agree he gets blasted here. Padres also slow starters to open road series. I posted the stats in my thread.
    Comment
    • joco
      SBR MVP
      • 04-24-11
      • 3242

      #3
      i think u meant san diego sinker...but yes i agree. rockies over padres today
      Comment
      • El Nino
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 05-03-12
        • 18426

        #4
        Click image for larger version

Name:	E. Volquez 8-12.JPG
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        Comment
        • No coincidences
          SBR Aristocracy
          • 01-18-10
          • 76300

          #5
          Comment
          • innovation
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 01-27-12
            • 6218

            #6
            He's always good for a touchdown at mile high.
            Comment
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