Jeff's Bets

Jefferey13 · 08-14-13, 12:54 AM

Originally posted by 3runhomer

Hang in there...

Ya I'm very hopeful still. Still just tweaking the model a little.

Jefferey13 · 08-14-13, 12:56 AM

8/14 Plays

CWS +130
MIA +170
PIT/STL U 7 -105

If anyone has every tailed these plays, which I'm sure you haven't, the MIA doesn't really fit the model FYI. But since I tweak it bit by bit, I'm including it.

Also, I am off to Vegas in the morning for a quick overnight at the Wynn with the wife for the anniversary. So wish me luck. Got to find what plays I want to be on tomorrow. Maybe I will just dump everything I got on the dodgers....

chabooky386 · 08-14-13, 03:45 PM

BOL Jeff! I like BOSTON and Under in the Tex GAME! GL

jessetk313 · 08-14-13, 04:00 PM

Chabooky I was thinking Boston too. Jays only hitting .199 off Lester collectively in over 300 at bats. The Sox are hitting .368 off Rogers and Lester is also 3-0 vs the Jays this yr.

chabooky386 · 08-14-13, 04:02 PM

Originally posted by jessetk313

Chabooky I was thinking Boston too. Jays only hitting .199 off Lester collectively in over 300 at bats. The Sox are hitting .368 off Rogers and Lester is also 3-0 vs the Jays this yr.

Yeah, I took them for $500.00! BOL on your bets mate!

jessetk313 · 08-14-13, 04:04 PM

BOL man.. I got buried yesterday by the Orioles losing. I would love to try to get it all back on this Red Sox play but I'm a little nervous although the numbers all add up to a win.

Jefferey13 · 08-14-13, 05:37 PM

Thanks for the well wishes, I already got the MIA one at +170 so that helps.

Jefferey13 · 08-16-13, 01:33 PM

I was out of town for a couple days. So here are my finishes from August 14th.

CWS +140 LOSS
MIA +170 WIN
PIT/STL U -105 WIN

+170 For the day

YTD 18-14-1 +5.73

Jefferey13 · 08-16-13, 02:08 PM

8/16 plays

This is my biggest day so far. Lot's of bets to be made. The model has never turned out this many picks. Should be fun.

NYM +125
CLE +117
CWS +113
TOR +134
KC -107
CIN/MIL U-110
SEA/TEX U -115

italianbandit · 08-16-13, 02:24 PM

Nice thread Jeff, good luck.

joco · 08-16-13, 02:31 PM

i agree on mets and toronto...other games are no plays for me. good luyck

Jefferey13 · 08-17-13, 12:36 AM

Almost had a huge day today. I thought I had the TOR game and the CLE game but just barely lost both of them. The only one I was lost and was supposed to lose the whole way was the CIN/MIL under. The other 6 picks all looked like winners. Anyways for the results.

Today 4-3 +1.29U

YTD 22-17-1 +7.02U

I'll have some picks for tomorrow up soon.

Jefferey13 · 08-17-13, 12:55 AM

Okay got a bunch more for tomorrow. 2 days in a row with the model giving me quite a few.

CLE +123
NYM +115
SEA +100
MIA +117
NYY +115
WAS/ATL U-130

Some good lines in there. I really like NYY at + money. I also like Mejia tomorrow. The under I took is very expensive, -130 is pretty crazy. Maybe the line will move to under 7 from 6.5 and I can just arb it.

Jefferey13 · 08-17-13, 03:21 PM

Okay the line did move like I thought on the WAS/ATL, so now I have the over also. Hopefully they score 7 and I hit. If not I got juiced 15cents.

Jefferey13 · 08-18-13, 08:29 PM

Results from 8/17, taken me a while because I got raped.

1-5 -3.07U
I also had an arb that I lost on the O/U

YTD
23-22-2 +3.95U

I'm still in this luckily because almost every pick is a dog. In reality a win for me with this model is 50/50.

Jefferey13 · 08-19-13, 01:25 PM

Sorry this is late and the mets game just started

NYM +100
SF +105
LAD -125

I actually took these all like 12 hours ago. Just late to post. BOL

EDIT: I think me having NYM at EVEN money should be proof enough lol

Jefferey13 · 08-20-13, 12:32 AM

1-2 -1.25

YTD 24-24-2 +2.70 U

If I get close to -10 units I'll stop.

Jefferey13 · 08-20-13, 05:31 PM

8/20

sd +110
chc +127
nym +135
tor +121

Jefferey13 · 08-22-13, 12:36 PM

Ytd

25-27-2 +1.05u

Jefferey13 · 08-22-13, 12:36 PM

Been rough for a bit here.

Just one pick today and I like it.

PITT +1.12

Jefferey13 · 08-23-13, 03:02 PM

1-0 + 1.12

ytd 26-27-2 +2.17u

Jefferey13 · 08-23-13, 03:10 PM

8/23

LAD -109
KC -106
ARI +107
CHC +114
NYY/TB U7

Should be a tough card today. I'm excited for the LAD game today.

Charlie103 · 08-23-13, 04:18 PM

Nice job on Pitt last night, surprised me. Gl today

Jefferey13 · 08-23-13, 04:52 PM

Originally posted by Charlie103

Nice job on Pitt last night, surprised me. Gl today

Thanks man

italianbandit · 08-23-13, 06:07 PM

Good luck Jeff, enjoy reading your posts.

Jefferey13 · 08-23-13, 07:12 PM

Originally posted by italianbandit

Good luck Jeff, enjoy reading your posts.

Thanks, glad someone checks it out.

I'm thinking my formula would be better designed to pick 5 inning lines instead of ML because the model doesn't account for relief pitching right now. But bovada puts the 5 innings lines up like 10 minutes before the game.

Jefferey13 · 08-23-13, 09:03 PM

What a stupid day today so far. ARI was up 3-1 and the phils walk off. TB somehow pounds kuroda. Royals were up 6-0 and are now losing. I mean WTF.

brigade125 · 08-23-13, 09:47 PM

tough day.. too.. had oakland and arizona.....oakland blow a 3 run lead then a blow another lead... really suks..

Jefferey13 · 08-23-13, 10:39 PM

Originally posted by brigade125

tough day.. too.. had oakland and arizona.....oakland blow a 3 run lead then a blow another lead... really suks..

At least Ted Lasso feels my pain.

Jefferey13 · 08-24-13, 12:22 AM

1-4 today, I mean you gotta be kidding me. I should have been 4-1. Today was ridiculous. I'm taking this formula to a first 5 one. I will probably deposit at 5 dimes.

-3.15 today

YTD- 27-31-2 -0.98 U

First time in the red

Jefferey13 · 08-24-13, 01:44 PM

Getting first five segments sucks. They release so close to game time. Can anyone tell me how long before game time 5dimes posts them up?

Anyways, I'll be on LAD -125FF

I'll check the other games when they release

Jefferey13 · 08-24-13, 02:30 PM

Let's throw a DET/NYM U3 -130 F5 in there.

Jefferey13 · 08-24-13, 03:31 PM

ARI -120 F5
LAA -105 F5

Using the first 5 is killing my odds. Bovada juices them a lot more.

italianbandit · 08-24-13, 09:27 PM

FF is a great idea, get a 5 dimes account, my local puts them up in the morning.

Jefferey13 · 08-24-13, 09:53 PM

Okay aside from the LAD game which was really a stretch, it was a good day. It looks like the FF maybe even would have saved the ARI game today. Glad I didn't have to deal with the stress. I'm going to deposit into 5dimes as soon as an error with my account info is resolved.

3-1 +1.77U

YTD 30-32-2 +0.79 U