MLB Game of the Day

Frizouill · 07-31-13, 10:27 AM

I guess the over was a bit much, an other gran slam would have been perfect

Frizouill · 07-31-13, 10:28 AM

2013/07/31 St-Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburg Pirates

Adam Wainwright (13 - 6, 2.51 ERA) vs Jeff Locke (9 - 3, 2.15 ERA)

Pitching:
Wainwright
Away: 3.00 ERA with an AVG against him of 0.272
July: 3.50 ERA with an AVG against him of 0.259
Post-All-Star: 3.00 ERA with an AVG against him of 0.268

Locke
Home: 2.56ERA with an AVG against him of 0.226
July: 2.49ERA with an AVG against him of 0.216
Post-All-Star: 2.13ERA with an AVG against him of 0.216

Locke as an overall better than Wainwright and this dominance keep going after the all star break. This will result in a better start for Pittsburgh even if it’is a close game.

Batting:
Looking at the offense of both teams since the All Star break, you can see that Pittsburgh ranks 14th on overall AVG while St-Louis ranks 28th.
Their offenses are not the best in the league but Pittsburgh's is way better.

In conclusion, Pittsburgh will continue is winning streak in a close game with not much offense.

Pick:
Point Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5
Moneyline: Pittsburgh Pirates -102
Total: Under 7

Frizouill · 08-05-13, 04:57 AM

2013/08/05 Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Indians

Cleveland needs to win this series if they want to pretend to a playoff spot.
Can they do it?

Anibal Sanchez (9 - 7, 2.59ERA) vs Corey Kluber (7 - 5, 3.77ERA)

Pitching:
Sanchez
Away: 3.13 ERA with an AVG against him of 0.276
July: 2.15 ERA with an AVG against him of 0.227
Post-All-Star: 0.95 ERA with an AVG against him of 0.214

Kluber
Home: 2.98ERA with an AVG against him of 0.249
July: 3.00ERA with an AVG against him of 0.208
Post-All-Star: 3.20ERA with an AVG against him of 0.243

Cleveland as a pitcher who was struggling a bit lately, but who has still a lot to give. They want continue their little streak and win some precious point against their rival.

But by looking at the stats and late result, Detroit will win.
Detroit as a really successful pitcher and the third overall offense since the All-Star break.

The most interesting point to debate on is the over under 7.5:
Two great offense facing two good pitchers;

Considering one of the two pitcher will struggle, Sanchez as a max ER of 5 in the last 10 games and Kluber as a maximum of 6ER. Then their ERA for july combine to 5.
With two of the best recent offensive team in the league, we can see that the wise choice is to pick over 7.5.

Pick:
Point Spread: Detroit Tigers -1.5
Moneyline: Detroit Tigers -130
Total: Over 7.5

Other picks;
Atlanta -1.5
St-Louis -1.5
Houston +1.5
Kansas City -1.5
Yankees -1.5
Los Angeles Angels +1.5 under9
Seattle -1.5
Millwaukee +1.5

Frizouill · 08-12-13, 06:59 AM

2013/08/12 Baltimore Orioles @ Arizona Diamondbacks

Both team are third in the wild card race and needs series of win to reach the playoffs.

Baltimore last 10 games : 6 - 4
Arizona last 10 games: 5 - 5

Anibal Sanchez (9 - 7, 2.59ERA) vs Corey Kluber (7 - 5, 3.77ERA)

Pitching:
Feldman
Away: 3.82 ERA with an AVG against him of 0.237
Post-All-Star: 5.60 ERA with an AVG against him of 0.261

Miley
Home: 3.93ERA with an AVG against him of 0.245
Post-All-Star: 1.44ERA with an AVG against him of 0.180

For the month of August, Arizona has been more productive offensively than Baltimore, this advantage can be slightly increased considering the last team they faced.

Then by looking at the pitchers stat, you clearly sees that Miley have had dominant games since mid-july. Therefore Feldman is pitching the same as the beginning of the season and will have trouble against a team with a solid August-AVG.

I would first pick Arizona for the moneyline.

If you look at the odds for the U/O and the point spread, you can calculate that the moneyline is overrated. In conclusion i would take Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5

Considering one of the two pitcher will struggle, Sanchez as a max ER of 5 in the last 10 games and Kluber as a maximum of 6ER. Then their ERA for july combine to 5.
With two of the best recent offensive team in the league, we can see that the wise choice is to pick over 7.5.

For the U/O, both team are productive offensive team then Miley and Feldman will perform a bit under what they are used. under -8.5

Pick:
Point Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5
Moneyline: Arizona Diamondbacks -125
Total: Uner 8.5

Other picks:
Kansas City -1.5 (+110)
Texas -1.5 (-135)
Detroit -130
Atlanta -1.5 (+135)

Frizouill · 08-13-13, 03:33 AM

On last night result, a couple of coach decision (let Darvish pitch over a 100 pitches) and mistake (Miley’s wild and bad pitches) went against my picks but i am still confident this is the way to insure you an above average winning ration on the long run. And the long run is the good way to make money.

Tonight Games of the Day:

New York Mets @ Los Angeles Dodgers

Matt Harvey ( 9 - 3, 2.09ERA ) vs Hyun-Jin Ryu ( 11 - 3, 2.99ERA ), One of the best matchup in the league.

Will the Mets support their Ace for once?
Will the Dodgers continue their streak?

Mets last 10 games : 6 - 4
Dodgers last 10 games: 9 - 1

Pitching:
Harvey
Away: 2.44 ERA with an AVG against him of 0.202
Post-All-Star: 1.84 ERA with an AVG against him of 0.163

Ryu
Home: 1.83ERA with an AVG against him of 0.228
Post-All-Star: 2.55ERA with an AVG against him of 0.281

According to the statistics, Matt Harvey is obviously more dominant than Ryu, he will keep the score one run lower than his opponent and go deeper in the game.
By looking at the last performance of Ryu, you realise that the Cardinals, the best hitting team in the league, was scoreless.
Then Ryu has an offensive team behind him, with David Wright away, Murphy and Byrd under (even if Wilmer Flores is doing a good job) the support won’t be here.

The Dodgers are stronger and they proved it with their 6 games streak ( 4 home games streak).

To conclude, the dodgers will win but not by much:

Pick:
Point Spread: New York Mets +1.5
Moneyline: Los Angeles Dodgers -127
Total: Under 6

Other pick:
Washington (-125)
Detroit (-200)
St-Louis -1.5 (+110)
Kansas City -1.5 (+170)
Baltimore -1.5 (+145)
Oakland -305

Frizouill · 08-14-13, 06:37 AM

San Francisco Giants @ Washington National

Will Washington keep his streak running?
Will San Francisco’s offense start to be productive?

Tim Lincecum ( 6 - 11, 4.18ERA ) vs Jordan Zimmermann ( 13 - 6, 3.10ERA )

Giants last 10 games : 3 - 7
Nationals last 10 games: 6 - 4

Pitchiners:
Lincecum
Away: 4.06 ERA with an AVG against him of 0.272
Post-All-Star: 3.86 ERA with an AVG against him of 0.211

Zimmermann
Home: 2.90ERA with an AVG against him of 0.231
Post-All-Star: 6.75ERA with an AVG against him of 0.321

On their two last starts, both pitchers have been dominant, each got one Win and a low ERA.
Last 2: Lincecum: 0.60ERA and Zimmermann: 1.80ERA

Batting:
Mean for the Last 10 games:
San Francisco produced 2.3 runs per games and allowed 3.9 runs.
Washington produced 4.5 runs per games and allowed 2.9 runs.

Then you know that Marco Scutaro just got on the Day to Day Disable List who is responsible for 5 runs out of the last 10 games. Which will bring down the average production of San Francisco.

To conclude, San Francisco as a lack of production which will be fatal for this game. It will be a pitchers game until the 5th inning then Washington will produce and take the lead.

Pick:
Point Spread: Washington National +1.5
Moneyline: Washington National -146
Total: Under 7

other picks:

Tampa Bay -1.5
Minnesota -110
Pittsburg +1.5
Detroit -1.5
Texas -1.5
Kansas City -1.5
Baltimore +110