Should have got on this earlier. It being an obvious play doesn't worry me too much.
It's the classic "fade the guy coming off of a no-hitter".
But there are other things about this game that make it a play regardless of Timmah's no-no.
Arroyo hasn't given up more than 3 earned runs since late may.
Arroyo is 2-1 in his last 3.
Arroyo is 8-0 after the reds lost the previous time out
Reds are 6-1 vs. NL West in last 7 games with Arroyo on the mound.
Reds are 4-1 vs Giants over last 5 games in San Fran .
Timmah is 0-2 with an ERA nearing 7 vs the reds.
Giants 0-6 with Timmah on the mound vs a team above .500 over those 6 games.
Giants are 2-10 in their last 12 vs. NL Central opponents.
One of the main reasons I am feeling comfortable besides the fact that Arroyo should be better than Lincecum, is the fact that the Reds bullpen is one of the better iunits n the league. In fact, their bullpen is posting a sub 1.00 ERA over their last 16 games, which consists of ~48 innings pitched. Meaning, a loss due to some fukktard out of the pen is less likely.
Point being, we got a classic fade spot at + or EV money, when the team being backed is superior than the team favored.
I am 5 out of my last 6 posted plays, Hoping to go 6 for 7.
Fade or Tail, Doesn't matter to me.
It's the classic "fade the guy coming off of a no-hitter".
But there are other things about this game that make it a play regardless of Timmah's no-no.
Arroyo hasn't given up more than 3 earned runs since late may.
Arroyo is 2-1 in his last 3.
Arroyo is 8-0 after the reds lost the previous time out
Reds are 6-1 vs. NL West in last 7 games with Arroyo on the mound.
Reds are 4-1 vs Giants over last 5 games in San Fran .
Timmah is 0-2 with an ERA nearing 7 vs the reds.
Giants 0-6 with Timmah on the mound vs a team above .500 over those 6 games.
Giants are 2-10 in their last 12 vs. NL Central opponents.
One of the main reasons I am feeling comfortable besides the fact that Arroyo should be better than Lincecum, is the fact that the Reds bullpen is one of the better iunits n the league. In fact, their bullpen is posting a sub 1.00 ERA over their last 16 games, which consists of ~48 innings pitched. Meaning, a loss due to some fukktard out of the pen is less likely.
Point being, we got a classic fade spot at + or EV money, when the team being backed is superior than the team favored.
I am 5 out of my last 6 posted plays, Hoping to go 6 for 7.
Fade or Tail, Doesn't matter to me.