Strong lean to the LAA v. BALT 'OVER' 9.5 in today's matchup (6/12)

[Jago2008]

I had posted a total in the first matchup of Garcia and Weaver: unfortunately that game was rain delayed, and despite 3 HRs and multiple scoring opportunities... went 'under' the total (9) 4-3 final, among some great defensive plays that prevented more runs.

-This is a matchup that is favorable to the 'over' as both pitchers have poor numbers against each lineup respectively; Trout, Callaspo, Trumbo, Kendrick are all batting over .300 against Hammel. Machado, Hardy, Adam Jones, and Nate Mclouth all have good numbers against Jerome Williams this season, and despite his numbers and %'s I expect Chris Davis to also have a great game against this Angels pitcher.

-Starting pitcher J. Hammel was part of an 8-4 winner against LA in Los Angeles last time they matched up in a similar game during the day but had previously posted a 7.31 ERA while losing his previous 3 against the halos, I expect another high scoring game and another high ERA/associative WHIP.

-Additionally the humidity and temperature will be relatively high @ game time carrying through to the afternoon, I expect to see some men on base, and some more HRs.

GL to your bets.

[2daBank]

nice, glad we agree..wrote about this one in my thread.. i got in @ +102..

[2daBank]

my i gotta be half retarded total for the day is det/kc over 7.5 ev..if we talking bout weather it gonna be hot as shit in kc with a strong wind out..

[2daBank]

actually like all 3 day overs just couldnt convince myself to pull trigger on the atl/sd one, guess it looks easier than the other 2, lol..

[Jago2008]

nice, glad we agree..wrote about this one in my thread.. i got in @ +102..

Hey Bank , I'm glad we agree on this. I've been looking to this total for some time now when I saw they were expecting some great (hot and humid) weather approaching this wednesday. I also like this pitching matchup for these lineups, thanks for commenting bud. I wish both of us luck. I'm on the west coast, so I'm going to grab some sleep, woke up specifically for this matchup, we should grab a winner here bro.

[pattymayo]

Gotta think the over will hit once in this series right? Might as well continue the chase

[Jago2008]

actually like all 3 day overs just couldnt convince myself to pull trigger on the atl/sd one, guess it looks easier than the other 2, lol..

YES exactly, with Volquez on the mound he has the propensity to walk A LOT of batters, Volquez was money in Colorado in the 'over' with a 11.40 ERA, I think after a low scoring, many many LOB game previously for the Braves they answer back in this final game with more runs - current total is listed @ 7.5, and the weather here in San Diego has been warm, people are misjudging how the stadium changes in San Diego is changing the offense. Petco allbeit a "pitchers park" is not like it once was, right field is much closer and lower, and center field has been giving up more HRs, whether that's a "mental" advantage remains to be seen, but I'll side with you if you're selecting the 'over'. Even San Diego matches up well against Maholm, I Don't care if ATL matches up well against Volquez I've seen enough of him to realize he gives up runs.

I don't want to jinx myself by saying all of this abt the SD v. ATL mathcup, maybe Volquez has improved his delivery since his last start in Colo. but I hightly doubt it.

[Jago2008]

Gotta think the over will hit once in this series right? Might as well continue the chase

That was my thought process amongst others, GL to you Patty .

[2daBank]

My biggest worry is will atl be patient and let volquez walk them? They strike me as being maybe to free of swingers at times. But yea if they take their walks I'd think potential for a few crooked numbers and doesn't take a lot w that total. Kinda scary it set at 7.5 tho cause who isn't looking at atl bats vs a gas can? Plus like you said and I agree pads bats should help the cause as well. That a early enough start out there where shadows won't be a issue right?

[Jago2008]

My biggest worry is will atl be patient and let volquez walk them? They strike me as being maybe to free of swingers at times. But yea if they take their walks I'd think potential for a few crooked numbers and doesn't take a lot w that total. Kinda scary it set at 7.5 tho cause who isn't looking at atl bats vs a gas can? Plus like you said and I agree pads bats should help the cause as well. That a early enough start out there where shadows won't be a issue right?

you are exactly right about ATL being free swingers and that is my concern aswell, as far as the shadows - not a worry at 12:40pm. I've ran numbers in the past and day games in Petco have had higher totals than the night totals because that "marine layer" here has not been able to settle over the park, it was really hot here on Monday, no idea what happened yesterday, a lot of intermittent clouds. As for this afternoon seems like similar weather, but it is humid here. I'm concerned to see the lineups in this matchup.

But with that said I haven't done enough research in this matchup to give you a real "lean". I hope you choose accordingly bud.

[aman86]

like the over as well

[Jago2008]

There we go gentlemen.

[Jago2008]

That all played out eerily similar to Monday's game... Men on base, could not get "the hit" - Score was also 2-4 Orioles, Angels load the bases, Hamilton hits an infield single, but Pujols and Trumbo choked. The difference being Aybar, and FINALLY Pujols coming through w/ RISP today.

Record in "Posted totals" plays:

6-1-0.

[BigPete55]

Was with ya Jago!! I loved the play, saw you were on it, just confirmed....thanks bro!

Anything for the Braves? Was leaning over there as well...

Any leans for tonight?

[leetreaper]

There we go gentlemen.

[Jago2008]

Was with ya Jago!! I loved the play, saw you were on it, just confirmed....thanks bro!

Anything for the Braves? Was leaning over there as well...

Any leans for tonight?

Thanks Lee

and Thanks Pete.

I haven't analyzed much of tonight's card yet, had a busy morning and previous night, I'm going to look over some more totals and sides, some initial leans are:

Yanks +106 - with A's Cespedes and Crisp out (although I generally don't bet against the A's at home, just with those players out, now there is value in this line).
SF v. Pitt 'under' 7.5
and the 'under' 7.5 in the NY v. Oakland matchup. Just some initial leans.

[leetreaper]

Thanks Lee

and Thanks Pete.

I haven't analyzed much of tonight's card yet, had a busy morning and previous night, I'm going to look over some more totals and sides, some initial leans are:

Yanks +106 - with A's Cespedes and Crisp out (although I generally don't bet against the A's at home, just with those players out, now there is value in this line).
SF v. Pitt 'under' 7.5
and the 'under' 7.5 in the NY v. Oakland matchup. Just some initial leans.

My A's bet looked so sexy before i saw this, not anymore...Hughes is still a bum though...

[Jago2008]

My A's bet looked so sexy before i saw this, not anymore...Hughes is still a bum though...

I love the A's bro, such fundamental baseball they play, I was on them last night with Bartolo Chode-olon, he never ceases to amaze me, pitches out of a bases loaded 1st, then Crisp jacks the first ball he sees over the fence, smooth sailing from there.

And yes I almost never bet against the A's at home, they have a streak going now, like 10 in a row? Hughes pitched amazing last time he was in this park and is 5-1 in his last starts against Oakland... still its Phil Hughes. I just saw the Yanks have an inspired effort to get back into the game last night scoring 4 runs in the final two frames.

Not putting much into these games yet, still hours to consume. Let me know if you have any strong leans Lee, I'll PM you if I do. Just waiting at the moment.

[leetreaper]

I love the A's bro, such fundamental baseball they play, I was on them last night with Bartolo Chode-olon, he never ceases to amaze me, pitches out of a bases loaded 1st, then Crisp jacks the first ball he sees over the fence, smooth sailing from there.

And yes I almost never bet against the A's at home, they have a streak going now, like 10 in a row? Hughes pitched amazing last time he was in this park and is 5-1 in his last starts against Oakland... still its Phil Hughes. I just saw the Yanks have an inspired effort to get back into the game last night scoring 4 runs in the final two frames.

Not putting much into these games yet, still hours to consume. Let me know if you have any strong leans Lee, I'll PM you if I do. Just waiting at the moment.

Nothing much tonight, had a huge card yesterday though, should've posted ...
Leans: Min, Mil Ov, Col Ov...