Stl cards vs ny mets... Am i thinking on right track??

[MANIER08]

OK, this is the first year really betting much MLB so would like your guy's opionion on my thought process for a few games this week. First up STL Vs. NYM. -145. I really like stl here at -145 you are getting one of the best MLB teams vs one of the worst. I guess its heavily discounted due to wacha(0-0 pitched 2 games which stl lost giving the lose to the bullpen) pitching for STL. But is hefner(1-5 bull pen is 0-6 games he started but did not get disc) really that much better? But then agian maybe im fooling myself in thinking -145 for stl on road is cheap. But they are consistenly year after year one of the best road teams in MLB and actually a better road record than home record this year so far. So after i make my mind up about wacha being better for laying my money on than hefner, lets asume im wrong and they both pitch there avg game. Mets have to out bat stl! mets could not even out bat the Marlins! So after debating this one over night i dont see a downside for taking cards ML. except for saying oh NYM and Hefner are due.

Once agian any opionion about my thought process are welcome even if you just want to call me a complete idiot lol
thanks!

Thinking of hedging this bet alittle with another play I could easily win as well.
350 on STL ML -145
125 on STL/METS over 7.5
Thinking stl could easily get 5+ runs this game and stl might give a few up. If they end up loosing hard seeing the score being under.

[PaperTrail07]

Stl is on fire...never a bad bet with them right now unless your laying over 2:1

[Simon Gruber]

As a Met fan here's what I can tell you about their current team - They tend to play to the level of their competition. Look no further then their 4 game sweep of the Yankees a couple of weeks ago, yet providing the Marlins with their only 2 series wins this year, which were both sweeps for Miami. They also would've taken both games from Washington in DC after being swept in Miami if not for a Parnell blown save in the first game. The pitching match up here favors the home team tonight as Hefner has looked really good recently, and Wacha just got crushed by Arizona. Ike Davis and Tejada being demoted is addition by subtraction because whoever replaces them in the lineup tonight can't possibly be any worse. Basically the Mets tend to oscillate between either very good or very bad, and I have a feeling they'll be in overachieving mode for this Cards series. I'm not sure if I like the Mets tonight at +125, but if it gets to like +135 or more I think they're definitely worth a play. Under 7.5 looks good too.

[MANIER08]

Thanks Simon you summed up the Mets perfectly "them playing to the level of there competition". Appreciate the insight and makes me feel more comfy with the over play! what it does to my STL ML bet I will be reviewing some of the mets games especially themin STL!!
Thanks agian!

[Avala7ch3]

The cards are great money at -140 or whatever it is at now. This is our free pick of the day. Follow my thread and feel free to ask questions.

yeah cards are great money if u r ready to chase them next 2 games....
in other way.....just dont bother....

[tevari]

the books are begging you to take STL. If a team was ever "due" it is the NYM. However, I said that before I bet on Niese to avoid getting swept at home by Miami, let alone the home & home series. I wouldn't touch this game.

[HardCore]

if wacha didnt get shelled by az and had like a 2.5 era he'd be higher and trust me this line is not low the guy is on the road if it was in stl he'd be -165-175 so the line makes since. Plus the books still respect the mets lol by the end of the month they'll be getting mia/hou lines so enjoy these bargins while they last.

[MANIER08]

thanks agian for all the advice! also avala7ch3 I do feel stl is over due more for a sweep than Mets are due for a good game. But i am also a negitive bias on mets since they cost me 4 games vs marlins! so will be betting them in all three games. Also thanks simon gruber you convinced me to bump up my over bet. Hopefully i hear from you guys on my other games I post About this week!