Math Man 2013 MLB plays

[million2one]

Going to test out a new model for making plays based on using key statistics and what I feel are games with a +EV.
This is just the test phase so I will be risking small amounts. Fade or play as you fit.
Any and all input/criticism/advice is welcome.

I will be attempting to win one unit on Favorites and risking one unit on dogs.

Houston Astros (+127)
Tampa Bay Rays (-176)

[million2one]

Houston Astros (+127)
Tampa Bay Rays (-176)

Nice way to start the experiment
Here's what I am taking for today, I am all about value so going for the home dog again.

Arizona Dbacks (-117)
Houston Astros (+140)

YTD: 2 - 0 for +2.27 units

[million2one]

Arizona Dbacks (-117)
Houston Astros (+140)

YTD: 2 - 0 for +2.27 units

I keep coming up with Houston, there has to be a flaw in my model.
I may have more for later.
How much value do you put on home field advantage??

Cle. Indians (+183)
Chicago White Sox (-125)
Houston Astros (+185)

YTD: 3 - 1 for +2.27 units

[EXhoosier10]

HFA is ~ 8% for each team from what i've seen

[million2one]

Thanks Ex,
I am using 7% in my model just looking at some past history.
I feel better about the number I am using now.

Adding a play

Seattle Mariners (-124)

4 plays in total, that is all for today.

[million2one]

Cle. Indians (+183)
Chicago White Sox (-125)
Houston Astros (+185)
Seattle Mariners (-124)

Playing it safe with only one play today

Boston Red Sox (-184)

YTD: 4 - 4 for +0.02 units

[million2one]

Boston Red Sox (-184)

Took a hit with Boston and didn't have time to cap yesterday.
One play for today

Pittsburgh Pirates (-154)

YTD: 4 - 5 for -1.82 units