Why is Bucholz only -200 at home against an 0-4 pitcher?

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  • OhMyEli
    SBR MVP
    • 07-17-12
    • 1164

    #1
    Why is Bucholz only -200 at home against an 0-4 pitcher?
    Why is this not juiced up around -275 or so?

    I don't see anything out of the ordinary considering the books know they will make tons on the Sox no matter what. Explanation?
  • TwoWays
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 03-24-10
    • 13145

    #2
    They will make sure his hair is dry.
    Comment
    • forthewin
      SBR Wise Guy
      • 06-15-12
      • 561

      #3
      Originally posted by TwoWays
      They will make sure his hair is dry.
      Exactly 30+ pitches and down 2 runs, which could have easily been 5 in the first inning.

      Comment
      • ses_d
        SBR MVP
        • 04-06-12
        • 1248

        #4
        thanks Boston
        Comment
        • stevenash
          Moderator
          • 01-17-11
          • 65565

          #5
          And what did Morneau and Mauer do in the first?
          I got .5* Minny at +180



          MINNESOTA TWINS CAREER STATISTICS VS. CLAY BUCHHOLZ
          BATTER AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO AVG OBP SLG OPS
          Jamey Carroll 6 1 0 0 0 0 2 0 .167 .444 .167 .611
          Ryan Doumit 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 .333 .333 .333 .667
          Brian Dozier 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 .333 .333 .333 .667
          Eduardo Escobar 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .000 .000 .000 .000
          Darin Mastroianni 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 .333 .333 .667 1.000
          Joe Mauer 10 3 1 0 0 1 2 0 .300 .417 .400 .817
          Justin Morneau 14 7 0 0 0 1 0 2 .500 .500 .500 1.000
          Chris Parmelee 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 .500 .667 .500 1.167
          Trevor Plouffe 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .000 .000 .000 .000
          Josh Willingham 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 .667 .667 1.000 1.667
          Totals 52 17 3 0 0 2 5 6 .327 .397 .385 .781
          Comment
          • iQon
            SBR MVP
            • 04-08-10
            • 1483

            #6
            Originally posted by forthewin
            Exactly 30+ pitches and down 2 runs, which could have easily been 5 in the first inning.

            I didn't know baseball games concluded @ Top 1.
            Comment
            • stevenash
              Moderator
              • 01-17-11
              • 65565

              #7
              Originally posted by ses_d
              thanks Boston
              Did you lay -200?
              Comment
              • stevenash
                Moderator
                • 01-17-11
                • 65565

                #8
                Originally posted by iQon
                I didn't know baseball games concluded @ Top 1.
                Yesterday's Tiger game did.
                Comment
                • forthewin
                  SBR Wise Guy
                  • 06-15-12
                  • 561

                  #9
                  Originally posted by iQon
                  I didn't know baseball games concluded @ Top 1.
                  I never implied who was going to win the game. The point is under such inexplicably heavily juiced odds against a dangerous hitting Twins team, Buchholz is getting worked more than he has in any of his other starts this season. He could also very well have been affected by Jack Morris "spitball" remarks. He is starting to settle down but he definitely was getting hit hard and early and there is no reason to not see value in the Twins @ +180.






                  Comment
                  • forthewin
                    SBR Wise Guy
                    • 06-15-12
                    • 561

                    #10
                    Originally posted by stevenash
                    Yesterday's Tiger game did.
                    Right. Along with the Marlins @+170 and The Rays @+104

                    Regardless of the outcome Twins @+180 is good value pick.
                    Comment
                    • stevenash
                      Moderator
                      • 01-17-11
                      • 65565

                      #11
                      Originally posted by forthewin
                      Right. Along with the Marlins @+170 and The Rays @+104

                      Regardless of the outcome Twins @+180 is good value pick.
                      I saw the line go from +174 to +180 five minutes before first pitch, threw a small 1/2 unit on them because of the way the meat of the order hits Clay.
                      Comment
                      • OhMyEli
                        SBR MVP
                        • 07-17-12
                        • 1164

                        #12
                        Luckily did not play this, knew something was up at that price. I wouldn't have been surprised to see -300.
                        Comment
                        • forthewin
                          SBR Wise Guy
                          • 06-15-12
                          • 561

                          #13
                          Originally posted by OhMyEli
                          Luckily did not play this, knew something was up at that price. I wouldn't have been surprised to see -300.
                          Also, the Tigers were -220 vs the Twins less than a week ago... The final score? Tigers 2 - Twins 6.
                          Comment
                          • stevenash
                            Moderator
                            • 01-17-11
                            • 65565

                            #14
                            Originally posted by OhMyEli
                            Luckily did not play this, knew something was up at that price. I wouldn't have been surprised to see -300.
                            I believe the biggest price ever at Fenway was Pedro at -270
                            Comment
                            • tbird509
                              SBR Wise Guy
                              • 11-05-09
                              • 761

                              #15
                              Originally posted by stevenash
                              I believe the biggest price ever at Fenway was Pedro at -270
                              i seen pedro -400 before,highest juice i ever seen,im pretty sure it was vs det around 2000-2001....alot of big spreads back then
                              Comment
                              • stevenash
                                Moderator
                                • 01-17-11
                                • 65565

                                #16
                                Sox have a golden chance right here, down 4-2 first and second, no outs.
                                Comment
                                • forthewin
                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                  • 06-15-12
                                  • 561

                                  #17
                                  That was a good game. Stephen Drew played his best game this season.
                                  Comment
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