2013 MLB Chase Model

EVPlus · 05-13-13, 10:07 PM

Model Record: 5-0

A bet: 3-3

B bet: 1-1

C bet: 1-0

D bet: 0-0

Next bet is B

BraveBuc · 05-13-13, 10:45 PM

Thanks for posting this, love that you are very selective and looking forward to seeing how it goes. Good start so far!

EVPlus · 05-14-13, 12:47 PM

Originally posted by BraveBuc

Thanks for posting this, love that you are very selective and looking forward to seeing how it goes. Good start so far!

Not selective enough on the White Sux game. For anyone interested, I have a strong lean on a game that starts tonight at 7 pm Eastern. Will update board if the lean becomes a B play.

samrock67 · 05-14-13, 12:51 PM

Originally posted by EVPlus

Not selective enough on the White Sux game. For anyone interested, I have a strong lean on a game that starts tonight at 7 pm Eastern. Will update board if the lean becomes a B play.

Interested

EVPlus · 05-14-13, 04:25 PM

May 14 play: Orioles -142

Tillman must start for Orioles.

B bet.

EVPlus · 05-14-13, 08:55 PM

Model Record: 5-0

A bet: 3-3

B bet: 1-2

C bet: 1-0

D bet: 0-0

Next bet is C.

EVPlus · 05-15-13, 08:50 AM

For the tailers, faders, and those in the peanut gallery, I anticipate a possible C bet for a 1pm Eastern time game.

dalogester · 05-15-13, 09:04 AM

I'm in the peanut gallery so I am excited for the play

dalogester · 05-15-13, 11:47 AM

No play?

EVPlus · 05-15-13, 11:51 AM

May 15 play: Minn -123 Bet365

Axelrod and Pelfrey must start.

C bet.

EVPlus · 05-15-13, 01:54 PM

Does not look good for the twinkies. Regardless of how this game turns out, I'm going to shelve this project for the time being and go back to spot plays. Clearly, the model is under-performing. I apologize to anyone who lost money tailing.

dalogester · 05-15-13, 01:57 PM

Not gonna finish a d bet?

dalogester · 05-15-13, 03:06 PM

I don't get why you would give up on it before even 1 d bet loss.. makes no sense.

mrk77 · 05-16-13, 11:36 AM

Didn't see this coming. Under performing? There's no system loss yet. You're a good salesman and had me convinced with your explanation of this system...now we all know.

dalogester · 05-16-13, 12:03 PM

I made my own D bet with the Cardinals last night and thank god it covered. Yeah, I don't get it at all... Makes no sense to do "spot plays" when these spot plays are 5-6 so far. The system is 5-0, and could have been 6-0 with a successful D bet.
Guess you don't understand chase systems... Even the great ones like stiflers started out down 20 units and is now up 60.

EVPlus · 05-16-13, 02:08 PM

To dalogester: Fair enough and point well taken.

I was disappointed in the filters for the following reasons:

1) Too many juiced plays; I anticipated about a 40/60 split between small dogs and short faves but it has not been the case. A chase is dangerous enough. And if the chase involves nothing but juiced plays, you're just begging for a burial.

2) The filters actually give me 2-3 plays of equal strength on any given day; it is then up to me to make a subjective choice of which to go with; as luck would have it, the ones I chose lose while the others would win (yesterday's example would be Twins shitting the bed while the Royals won pretty easily).

For me, spot plays in baseball, wnba, and nhl are my bread and butter; that's how I win. However, I rarely post those because they involve: 1) capping the night before; 2) checking my notes the next morning; 3) going on an intuitive feel for the ebb and flow of action. For example, I really liked the over on the Red Wings/Black Hawks game last night but hated the line sitting at 5. After the first period, I got the live bet of over 5.5 at -130 which hit(the last minute goal was a disappointment but I still got the hook). I simply don't have the time or inclination to post plays like that because I find it distracting. And many of my spot plays in baseball are game-time decisions.

Regardless, I will reconsider un-shelving this. If I do, the next bet will be D.