icancount2one's MLB 2013 thread

[icancount2one]

So, it's a little late to be starting threads, but I haven't had a play that I really liked before this.

Last year, I went +14.5 units, 1 2 and 3 unit plays only (to win). Same rules apply this year.

Tomorrow:
Cincinnati Reds -230 @ Miami. Latos v. Slowey or no action

4.6u to win 2u.

[icancount2one]

YTD 0-1 -4.6u

There were some technical issues with the system I'm using, but I think I got the kinks worked out (that means expect to see more plays, I'm not making an excuse for losing a -230 play). Don't expect to see that kind of chalk often, btw. It seems any time the numbers add up for a really square play it ALWAYS loses, eh?

Well here we go, TONIGHT 4/25
Seattle Mariners +110, 1.82u to win 2u
Oakland Athletics -125 1.25u to win 1u


TOMORROW 4/26
Toronto Blue Jays +105 1.90u to win 2u
Seattle Mariners +140 0.71u to win 1u
Minnesota Twins +110 2.73u to win 3u

[icancount2one]

Ouch, 1-4 the last couple days, 1-5 -9.19 units YTD. Started off rough last year, but not like this. Let's get this thing back on the right track.

4/28

Toronto -110 (Dickey v Hughes) 1.1u to win 1u
Miami +115 (Nolasco v Villanueva) 0.87u to win 1u
Colorado +130 (Garland v Corbin) 2.31u to win 3u

[icancount2one]

4/29

Houston +215 (Harrell vs Pettite) 0.47u to win 1u

[icancount2one]

4/30

Oakland -105 2.2u to win 2u (Parker vs Richards)

[icancount2one]

2-5 -8.19 units YTD

[icancount2one]

3-5 -6.19 units YTD

[icancount2one]

5/2/2013 SDG E Stults CHC T Wood MLB Moneyline +130 $30.77 $40.00 0 -110.76 20.87%
5/2/2013 CHW J Peavy TEX J Grimm MLB Moneyline +120 $33.33 $40.00 0 -125.63 22.50%

5/2

SDG +130 2.31 to win 3 units
CHW +120 2.5 to win 3 units

[icancount2one]

5/3

CLE -150 4.5u to win 3u (Hernandez v Masterson)

[icancount2one]

with the 2 wins on 5/2 we're almost out of this hole.

5-5 (-0.19 u) pending tonight's games

[icancount2one]

Upon checking my graded bets instead of just the scores, it seems I made a couple mistakes. I had a bet graded as a push I thought I had won (pitching change) and I completely forgot to grade one of my posts. Here is an accurate update.

Date	Play	Pitchers	Risk	Win	Grade	Net	YTD
19-Apr	CIN -230	Latos v Slowey	4.6	2	L	-4.6	-4.6
25-Apr	SEA +110		1.82	2	W	2	-2.6
25-Apr	OAK -125		1.25	1	L	-1.25	-3.85
26-Apr	TOR +105		1.9	2	L	-1.9	-5.75
26-Apr	SEA +140		0.71	1	L	-0.71	-6.46
26-Apr	MIN + 110		2.73	3	L	-2.73	-9.19
28-Apr	TOR -110	Dickey v Hughes	1.1	1	L	-1.1	-10.29
28-Apr	MIA +115	Nolasco v Villanueva	0.87	1	W	1	-9.29
28-Apr	COL +130	Garland v Corbin	2.31	3	L	-2.31	-11.6
29-Apr	HOU +215	Harrel vs Pettite	0.47	1	W	1	-10.6
30-Apr	OAK -105	Parker vs Richards	2.2	2	W	2	-8.6
2-May	SDG +130	Stultz vs Wood	2.31	3	W	3	-5.6
2-May	CHW +120	Peavy vs Grimm	2.5	3	No action		-5.6
3-May	CLE -150	Hernandez vs Masterson	4.5	3	W	3	-2.6

Total: 6-7, still -2.6u because of the pitching change and lost bets on the post I missed.

[icancount2one]

5/5
Philadelphia -183 3.66 to win 2 units (Halladay vs Slowey)
Minnesota +130 2.31 to win 3 units (Pelfrey vs. Kluber)

[icancount2one]

5/6 OAK +112 (Parker vs. Jimenez) .893 to win 1u

[icancount2one]

YTD 7-8 -4.26 units

5/7

Milwaukee +105 (Peralta vs Grimm) 2.86 to win 3u

[icancount2one]

YTD 8-8 -1.26u. Living up to my current status.

Washington +110 (Zimmermann vs Sanchez) 1.82 to win 2u

[icancount2one]

YTD 8-8 -1.26u. Living up to my current status.

Washington +110 (Zimmermann vs Sanchez) 1.82 to win 2u

5/8 obv

[icancount2one]

5/9

Philadelphia +105 (Hamels vs Corbin) 0.95u to win 1u
NYM -110 (Gee vs Locke) 2.2u to win 2u

[icancount2one]

5/10

Colorado +155 (Garland vs Miller) 1.29u to win 2u

[icancount2one]

YTD (Pending games on 5/9)

9-8 (+0.74u)

Huzzah! Technically positive units and W-L!!!


Pretty much still breaking even and bonus whoring... story of my life.

[icancount2one]

5/11

Toronto +190(Buehrle vs Bucholz) 1.05u to win 2u

[icancount2one]

5/12

NYY + 105 1.9 units to win 2 units
SDG +125 2.4 units to win 3 units

YTD update after I get some sleep... possibly after tomorrow's games.

[icancount2one]

YTD (Pending games on 5/9)

9-8 (+0.74u)

5/9

Philadelphia +105 (Hamels vs Corbin) 0.95u to win 1u L
NYM -110 (Gee vs Locke) 2.2u to win 2u W

5/10

Colorado +155 (Garland vs Miller) 1.29u to win 2u L

5/11

Toronto +190(Buehrle vs Bucholz) 1.05u to win 2u W

YTD (pending games on 5/12 - it's going to be painful cheering for the Yankees...)
11-10 (+2.50 units)

[icancount2one]

btw, pitchers for today (I omitted in the post, but did specify when I bet)
NYY: Kuroda vs Santana
SDG: Stultz vs Hernandez

[icancount2one]

Milwaukee +135 (Estrada vs Burnett) 2.22 units to win 3 units.

[icancount2one]

YTD 12-11 +2.1 units

[icancount2one]

5/14
Milwaukee -117 (Lohse vs Locke) 1.17u to win 1u
Philadelphia +107 1u to win 1.07u

[icancount2one]

YTD (pending games on 5/14)

13-11 (+5.10 units)

[icancount2one]

5/15

NY Mets +185 1.62 to win 3u (Miller v Marcum)
Philadelphia -170 3.4 to win 2u (Hamels v. Kluber)

[icancount2one]

YTD: 14-12 +5 units even

[RavensFan2k3]

Keep up the good work man, but why the Mets?

[icancount2one]

YTD 14-14 -.02 units

Keep up the good work man, but why the Mets?

I use a statistical model, project the outcomes of every game, and compare the projection to the line. I've come out positive two years running, but last year was the first that I posted plays. Right now we're just keeping up with the juice, but that's better than losing, I suppose!

[icancount2one]

Ok boys, after nothing today, we got a huge one tomorrow:

5/17


Chicago Cubs + 135 2.22 to win 3 units
Philadelphia -115 2.3 to win 2 units
Minnesota +145 1.38 to win 2 units
Oakland +115 2.61 to win 3 units

[icancount2one]

5/22

Philadelphia -168 (Lee vs Slowey) 1.68u to win 1u