PuckIt's Infamous Fade the Pirates Thread - v2013 [Adding UNDER Auto-Play]

[PuckIt]

So last season we all made some money fading the buccos. I live in the burgh and am pretty familiar with how the Pirates season will go. If all goes as expected, they'll start off pretty poorly, then they will climb the ranks gaining respect in the books leveling out just over .500, but about a month or two prior to playoffs they will take a nose-dive.

Now we can either try to ride the waves or just go with the straight fade. We can track it all here. ALSO - this year I am adding an auto-play on the under in ALL games. All plays will be risking 1u when +$$$ or to win 1u.


Monday, 04/01/13:
Fade:
- Cubs +110

Total:
UNDER 7 @ -110

Results:
Fade: 1-0 (+1.1u)
Total: 1-0 (+1u)


Wednesday, 04/03/13:
Fade:
- Cubs +125

Total:
- Under 6.5 @ +100

Results:
Fade: 1-1 (+0.1u)
Total: 2-0 (+2u)

[PuckIt]

Thursday, 04/04/13
Fade:
- Cubs +138

Total:
- Under 7 @ +110

Results:

Fade: WIN!
2-1 (+1.48u)

Total: WIN!
3-0 (+3.1u)

[PuckIt]

Wow is this really happening right now...

[PuckIt]

Phew, that was close! Thanks for grounding into the double to end the game, Walker! Win for both the fade and the under!

[PuckIt]

Trying to decide on tonight's game...-195 is pretty juicy lol. I may play -1 @ -143.

...or maybe just stick with the ML fade theory. Thoughts anyone?

[PuckIt]

Friday, 04/05/13
Fade:
- Dodgers @ -195

Total:
- Under 7 @ +105

Results:
Fade: WIN!
3-1 (+2.48u)

Total: WIN!
4-0 (+4.15u)

[PuckIt]

Another 2-0 night!

[jds07v]

Nicely done

[PuckIt]

Thank you, sir! Always count on the Pirates.

Combined system off to a 7-1 start for +6.63u...hopefully the win's keep coming!

[jds07v]

How high of odds are you willing to lay? Just moneyline or runline?

[PuckIt]

How high of odds are you willing to lay? Just moneyline or runline?

I am considering laying up to -200 on the fade ML, anything higher I will play the -1

[PuckIt]

So as expected the books are losing faith in the buccos (rightfully so) and the lines are getting a little steep, but we will push on. As stated above I am willing to lay up to -200 on the fade ML, but as tonight's game the Dodgers are around -219, we will be playing the -1.

Saturday, 04/06/13
Fade:
- Dodgers -1 @ -154

Total:
- Under 6 @ -105

Results:
Fade:
ML: WIN! (+3.48u)
-1: PUSH (+2.48u)

Total: WIN! (+5.15u)

[PuckIt]

wow the Dodgers really suck considering their lineup

[PuckIt]

Not sure if we wanna call this a push or a win for the fade as technically the fade won, but we pushed due to playing the -1.

[The Samurai]

Jumping on board. Results looking good so far.For tomorrow Played the fade and under for a unit each and parlayed the 2 for a half unit.

[PuckIt]

Won the fade, but lost the total by half a run...damn.

[PuckIt]

Sunday, 04/07/13
Fade:
- Dodgers ML @ -145

Total:
- Under 7.5 @ -115

Results:
Fade:
ML: (5-1) WIN! (+4.48u)
-1: WIN! (+3.48u)

Total: (5-1) LOSS (+4.10u)

[PuckIt]

Starting to think perhaps the under should be a half unit play, that way if the buccos get blown out of the water we don't end up going 1-1 fora small loss (like tonight). Thoughts anyone?

[PuckIt]

How about this...if either the fade or total is at +$$$ we play them both for 1u, but if either (or both) are juicy, we play to win 1u on the fade and 0.5u on the total.

[zandyman]

Fellow 'burgher here. Taking Bucs tonight, but GL with the thread. Had Dodgers & U couple nights ago too & hit.

[PuckIt]

I think I might also start tracking the -1 and -1.5 also, just to see if perhaps we are missing out on the RL

[PuckIt]

Monday, 04/08/13
Fade:
- Dbacks ML @ -140 (1.4u to win 1u)

Total:
- Under 8.5 @ -110 (0.55u to win 0.5u)

Results:
Fade:
ML: (5-2) LOSS (+3.08u)

Total: (5-1) WIN (+4.60u)

[PuckIt]

Tuesday, 04/08/13
Fade:
- Dbacks ML @ -140 (1.4u to win 1u)

Total:
- Under 9 @ -120 (0.6u to win 0.5u)

Results:
tbd

[PuckIt]

damn buccos...looks like they found their bats.

[PuckIt]

So many games, hard to keep track of.

Fading them today at +105 with Leake on the mound.

[PuckIt]

I'm sensing a collapse...

Brewers ML +140