Looking at a theory

[acc19]

Is there any ounce of profitablilty to this theory? Gonna monitor it over the first week:

MLB Props - Will There Be A Run Scored In The 1st Inning (GAME)

YES
NO

thoughts?

[acc19]

accidentally hit post before i was done. I meant to add betting every game on each days card...

[calmeat]

Been betting this prop for 3 years now. I dont think it would be very profitable since NO score is really juicy sometimes and it looses. sometimes -180

[abzflabz]

How often does it lose? Is there any stats for 1st innings runs per team?

[TankHankerous]

http://www.teamrankings.com/mlb/stat/1st-inning-runs-per-game

[acc19]

i know the juice can be heavy on the NO given who is on the hill for the day... but what about maintaining the the same risk amount instead of the return?

So far ive played every game this season and selecting NO on every game is 14-6
(risking $50 per game regardless of return (averaging in the 38-42 dollar range))

[homerbush]

Is there any ounce of profitablilty to this theory? Gonna monitor it over the first week:

MLB Props - Will There Be A Run Scored In The 1st Inning (GAME)

YES
NO

thoughts?

there is profitability if you do more than just select no or yes everytime. Play a few a day and be selective. There use to be someone that posted a season long thread on this look for that might give you some ideas

[EVPlus]

Last season, I spent quite a bit of time working some models and keeping track of air bets. For my model, the only way it was remotely profitable was IF the games started at different times. In other words, on a busy card, several games start at the same time - or close enough. So I really didn't pursue it. There is, of course, the occasional situational play. For example, if you have a west coast team playing an early sunday game against a solid starting pitcher on the east coast, that might be a good time make a small play on the 'no run.' Obviously, this type of play will ususally be juiced against you.

[EVPlus]

Addendum: for the most part, I believe playing the run/no run prop is too volatile for long term profitability. The baseball equivalent of playing the roulette wheel.

[acc19]

going to keep up the record for betting NO on every game for the year on this thread

so far thru 4/3's game :

23-12 YTD

[calmeat]

So i used to post my thread for the NO but it wasnt that profitable. Since then i have found the yes to be more profitable. One rule i have is to wait for a pitcher to have at least 5 starts under his belt before i really start betting on the Prop. I have my thread up and have some other systems that i use and post those results as well.

Oh and side note the first 2 series last year Yes happened more then the no.

[acc19]

maybe u r right calmeat... but so far the NO is showing an immediate profit at betting every game risking $50

26-14 as of right now. but will continue to monitor because it would have to maintain at lease 65% to show a little profit.

[EVPlus]

maybe u r right calmeat... but so far the NO is showing an immediate profit at betting every game risking $50

26-14 as of right now. but will continue to monitor because it would have to maintain at lease 65% to show a little profit.

I believe you just answered your question in regards to the profitability of this. To think that just blindly betting 'no' (or 'yes') and expecting 65% long term is just not realistic IMO. But it's your br and ultimately it's your decision.

[acc19]

right i just noticed it was hitting at that clip right now for the first 2.5 days... i am new to this specific prop bet so i was curious if anyone else had tried out this system before and was looking for their results whether positive or negative.

[BeerBottlez]

I sort of like it for opening week if you bet on the NO but after that you will get crushed from the juice betting every game.

[MagicDiceFlow]

You may have gotten lucky this first week because hitters are still getting adjusted. After a week or two, the NO bet is a sucker's bet and here's why:

1)Bettors often look at just the two opposing pitcher's stat. They tend to forgot about the team's 1st thru 3rd hitters. If you bet the NO, you're going up against the three best hitters on the team. If one of them gets on, your chance dwindles even more because you have to deal with a possible double or hr in the cleanup hitter. Another important thing you want to look at is if any of the teams have a speed demon like a Jose Reyes leading off. If they do, don't bet the NO because you're in a terrible spot. Any cheap single to lead off the game equates to a double and if there's a man on second with no outs, you're screwed. They don't even need to get another base hit to score at that point.

2) Many often overlook that the first inning is the most volatile inning even for a Verlander or Kershaw. It usually takes an inning or two to get warmed up and during those innings, pitchers are the most vulnerable especially when the three best hitters on the team leadoff.

[greenhippo]

Started 6-1 so far on these bets, all being NO. I just pick teams that don't score often as it is with a decent pitcher going against the other team.

[acc19]

29-17 ytd thru 4/4