2013 MLB thread

[broadway6]

Good luck tonight, pal.

[No coincidences]

Good luck tonight, pal.

You too. I'm going to need it. Mondays kill me.

[broadway6]

You too. I'm going to need it. Mondays kill me.

Haha every day kills me lately. I wouldn't know what a winner felt like.

[stevex]

You too. I'm going to need it. Mondays kill me.

Its NBA on Mondays for me that always kills me. Keep doing what your doing though man, solid thread with good info.

[EXhoosier10]

Haha every day kills me lately. I wouldn't know what a winner felt like.

Been a rough week or two for everyone, Broadway. Things should hopefully turn around in the next week or two

[No coincidences]

Fvcking Correia. Are you kidding me?

Braves are just never going to lose again I guess.

[EXhoosier10]

CHW TT over 3.5 (1.25U to win 1)

Why is this line -145 and not moving to 4? I'm not laying this sort of juice

[No coincidences]

Why is this line -145 and not moving to 4? I'm not laying this sort of juice

Yeah, I don't know. Most books (including the one I booked this at) have gone to 4, but Pinny hasn't. Ugh.

[No coincidences]

MIL TT over 3.5 +100 (1U to win 1)

[No coincidences]

LAD FF -120 (4.8U to win 4)

[Pauulzcappin]

where are u playing this nc? i thought about it as well since dodgers pen is absolute shit and i have +104 on pinny

[No coincidences]

where are u playing this nc? i thought about it as well since dodgers pen is absolute shit and i have +104 on pinny

BetOnline.

[Pauulzcappin]

lad ff -.5?

[No coincidences]

LAD/MIL FF over 4 (1.15U to win 1)

[Pauulzcappin]

missed it

[No coincidences]

3-6, -3.33U tonight
238-213, +53U thread

[Marooner]

Just wondering if you could explain how you bet the dodgers vs brewers?

Taking brewers over 3.5 seemed pretty crazing considering kershaw is the best pitcher in baseball. who really cares what dodgers bullpen is when kershaw is starting?

Did you know that the brewers suck against lefties? not to mention the best lefty?

But then to take dodgers FF on top is really strange to me. you seemed to be betting that kershaw would do well, but not last long?

I dunno. Seems odd. dodgers ff was a good bet cause the chances of milwaukee scoring more than 1 was very low. If milwaukee scores 1 or less in first 5... then you know kershaw is going deep, and chances milwaukee scores 4 has to be dogshit. You couldn't possibly have been betting on lad offense for your first five bet... or that is a whole different level of fail. so, what gives?

[EXhoosier10]

Just wondering if you could explain how you bet the dodgers vs brewers?

Taking brewers over 3.5 seemed pretty crazing considering kershaw is the best pitcher in baseball. who really cares what dodgers bullpen is when kershaw is starting?

Did you know that the brewers suck against lefties? not to mention the best lefty?

But then to take dodgers FF on top is really strange to me. you seemed to be betting that kershaw would do well, but not last long?

I dunno. Seems odd. dodgers ff was a good bet cause the chances of milwaukee scoring more than 1 was very low. If milwaukee scores 1 or less in first 5... then you know kershaw is going deep, and chances milwaukee scores 4 has to be dogshit. You couldn't possibly have been betting on lad offense for your first five bet... or that is a whole different level of fail. so, what gives?

Seems odd, but it's basically the equivalent of a hedged 2nd half bet on Milwaukee.The combo of Gallardo being a slow starter his first time through the order, the Dodgers rating probably dead last in "the Will to Win," and Mattingly being a bottom 5 manager makes coin's combo of bets a bit more lucrative than just taking milwaukee 2h.

edit: thought coin took mil ML and not TTo3.5 so my statement above is somewhat misguided. Add in the fact that the dodgers bullpen blows and it's somewhat valid, but still not very good. Consider the above thought process if you want to do team A ML and team B FF, though!

[Redscot]

Just wondering if you could explain how you bet the dodgers vs brewers?

Taking brewers over 3.5 seemed pretty crazing considering kershaw is the best pitcher in baseball. who really cares what dodgers bullpen is when kershaw is starting?

Did you know that the brewers suck against lefties? not to mention the best lefty?

But then to take dodgers FF on top is really strange to me. you seemed to be betting that kershaw would do well, but not last long?

I dunno. Seems odd. dodgers ff was a good bet cause the chances of milwaukee scoring more than 1 was very low. If milwaukee scores 1 or less in first 5... then you know kershaw is going deep, and chances milwaukee scores 4 has to be dogshit. You couldn't possibly have been betting on lad offense for your first five bet... or that is a whole different level of fail. so, what gives?

I'll take a stab at this. First off, I only had the Dodgers FF in this one, but I can see NoCo's angle. First off the Brewers don't suck against LHP if you lok into any of the advance metrics available they are top 10 MLB, not world beaters, but definitely not "suck". Kershaw is dominant, period, but.....his career K/BB rate against LHB is 4.34 against RHB 2.57, batting average against RHB 30 points higher than LHB, etc. etc. The Brewcrew ran out an all RHB lineup save Aoki last night. Not to mention Kershaw coming off a high pitch count game where he has traditionally done poorly in his subsequent start AND his career road era is a point higher than his home era (there are better stats to illustrate this but I'm tired of typeing). Anyway, just some thoughts.

NoCo, glad to see you having such a great start to the season bud keep up the good work.

[Vinnie Paz]

God damn i havent seen red postsince the lta days! Whats going on bruh?!

[EXhoosier10]

Who should be the biggest road favorite tonight?
TB (Cobb) @ Tor (Ramon Ortiz)
Lad (Greinke) @ Mil (Burgos)
Stl (Wainwright) @ SD (Volquez)
Det (Scherzer) @ Cle (Kluber)
Right now Cobb and Wainwright are both sitting around -140. fair?

[Marooner]

I'll take a stab at this. First off, I only had the Dodgers FF in this one, but I can see NoCo's angle. First off the Brewers don't suck against LHP if you lok into any of the advance metrics available they are top 10 MLB, not world beaters, but definitely not "suck". Kershaw is dominant, period, but.....his career K/BB rate against LHB is 4.34 against RHB 2.57, batting average against RHB 30 points higher than LHB, etc. etc. The Brewcrew ran out an all RHB lineup save Aoki last night. Not to mention Kershaw coming off a high pitch count game where he has traditionally done poorly in his subsequent start AND his career road era is a point higher than his home era (there are better stats to illustrate this but I'm tired of typeing). Anyway, just some thoughts.

NoCo, glad to see you having such a great start to the season bud keep up the good work.

It just seems to me that you would only take dodgers ff if you thought kershaw was going to be dominant. note that he didn't take lad tt. taking kershaw to be "on" but also taking over on brewers doesn't seem right to me.

I have been reading this thread for awhile now, and like the work no coin is doing for sure, just trying to understand and get better myself.

I don't really get into advanced stats yet, but the brewers are now 4-14 against lefties. that is pretty "suck" to me. my theory is that their top hitters hit righties and lefties well, but their ave and below ave players can't hit lefties that well, which keeps them struggling in that situation. maybe w-l record should count as an advanced stat.

[Redscot]

It just seems to me that you would only take dodgers ff if you thought kershaw was going to be dominant. note that he didn't take lad tt. taking kershaw to be "on" but also taking over on brewers doesn't seem right to me.

I have been reading this thread for awhile now, and like the work no coin is doing for sure, just trying to understand and get better myself.

I don't really get into advanced stats yet, but the brewers are now 4-14 against lefties. that is pretty "suck" to me. my theory is that their top hitters hit righties and lefties well, but their ave and below ave players can't hit lefties that well, which keeps them struggling in that situation. maybe w-l record should count as an advanced stat.

I think he was counting on the Dodgers to jump on a slow starting Gallardo and the Brewcrew scratching out a run or 2 off Kershaw.

to the bolded part bro, advanced stats are not the be all and end all, the proof is in the pudding. I would expect the BreCrews numbers against LHP to improve though during the season 18 games is a very small sample size, and they are a RHB dominant lineup with Aramis back in the mix now too.

[Redscot]

God damn i havent seen red postsince the lta days! Whats going on bruh?!

Sup Pazmanian Devil! Just doing my thing down here in the DR, busy busy, but trying to get in the flow of the MLB season. Hope all is well with you

[2daBank]

How crazy am I for wanting to back oak again? Yu is awesome no doubt but damn that line tempting.

[Redscot]

How crazy am I for wanting to back oak again? Yu is awesome no doubt but damn that line tempting.

ATM doesn't look like wind tunnel in effect so that takes some of my Straily FB% fear away.

[pacocn]

Who should be the biggest road favorite tonight?
TB (Cobb) @ Tor (Ramon Ortiz)
Lad (Greinke) @ Mil (Burgos)
Stl (Wainwright) @ SD (Volquez)
Det (Scherzer) @ Cle (Kluber)
Right now Cobb and Wainwright are both sitting around -140. fair?

Cobb

[2daBank]

That was actually 1st thing I checked as well red. He still worries me a little and certainly not saying I think they win this gm as much as debating whether their chances are better than odds suggest? Been on them to get back on track since coco's return and now just finding it hard to jump off w such a big number staring at me, lol..

good to see u bro. Hope everything going well..

[Redscot]

That was actually 1st thing I checked as well red. He still worries me a little and certainly not saying I think they win this gm as much as debating whether their chances are better than odds suggest? Been on them to get back on track since coco's return and now just finding it hard to jump off w such a big number staring at me, lol..

good to see u bro. Hope everything going well..

Right on BankBreaker, those are some Marlins/Stros type + #'s for a solid baseball team. Good to see you in here, always take your thoughts into account.

[meader99]

Who should be the biggest road favorite tonight?TB (Cobb) @ Tor (Ramon Ortiz)Lad (Greinke) @ Mil (Burgos)Stl (Wainwright) @ SD (Volquez)Det (Scherzer) @ Cle (Kluber)Right now Cobb and Wainwright are both sitting around -140. fair?

I don't believe Greinke has ever lost at Miller. Of course, he used to get a ton of run support when he pitched for the Brewers, so that has probably changed a little.

[No coincidences]

Just wondering if you could explain how you bet the dodgers vs brewers?

Taking brewers over 3.5 seemed pretty crazing considering kershaw is the best pitcher in baseball. who really cares what dodgers bullpen is when kershaw is starting?

Did you know that the brewers suck against lefties? not to mention the best lefty?

But then to take dodgers FF on top is really strange to me. you seemed to be betting that kershaw would do well, but not last long?

I dunno. Seems odd. dodgers ff was a good bet cause the chances of milwaukee scoring more than 1 was very low. If milwaukee scores 1 or less in first 5... then you know kershaw is going deep, and chances milwaukee scores 4 has to be dogshit. You couldn't possibly have been betting on lad offense for your first five bet... or that is a whole different level of fail. so, what gives?

Gallardo typically struggles early in games. Miller Park is hitter-friendly, MIL's top hitters have fared well vs. lefties so far this year, and most sharp books moved the total to 4.5 while I was able to get a 4 at Bovada. Obviously not the play in retrospect, but there were quite a few runners stranded in scoring position during the early innings. Gallardo was sharper than usual.

[No coincidences]

I'll take a stab at this. First off, I only had the Dodgers FF in this one, but I can see NoCo's angle. First off the Brewers don't suck against LHP if you lok into any of the advance metrics available they are top 10 MLB, not world beaters, but definitely not "suck". Kershaw is dominant, period, but.....his career K/BB rate against LHB is 4.34 against RHB 2.57, batting average against RHB 30 points higher than LHB, etc. etc. The Brewcrew ran out an all RHB lineup save Aoki last night. Not to mention Kershaw coming off a high pitch count game where he has traditionally done poorly in his subsequent start AND his career road era is a point higher than his home era (there are better stats to illustrate this but I'm tired of typeing). Anyway, just some thoughts.

NoCo, glad to see you having such a great start to the season bud keep up the good work.

Exactly. Thanks Red. Don't be a stranger pal. Great to see you posting. You're always welcome here.

[No coincidences]

Who should be the biggest road favorite tonight?
TB (Cobb) @ Tor (Ramon Ortiz)
Lad (Greinke) @ Mil (Burgos)
Stl (Wainwright) @ SD (Volquez)
Det (Scherzer) @ Cle (Kluber)
Right now Cobb and Wainwright are both sitting around -140. fair?

I'm never big on laying juice on the road with more than a game or two, but man, it's going to be hard to pass on some of these games given the matchups -- at least FF's.

[No coincidences]

I think he was counting on the Dodgers to jump on a slow starting Gallardo and the Brewcrew scratching out a run or 2 off Kershaw.

to the bolded part bro, advanced stats are not the be all and end all, the proof is in the pudding. I would expect the BreCrews numbers against LHP to improve though during the season 18 games is a very small sample size, and they are a RHB dominant lineup with Aramis back in the mix now too.

Exactly. I obviously expected Yo to give up more than he did, which he didn't. Good for him. MIL had their chances vs. Kerfax early and didn't get to him. The possibilities were there, but it just didn't come to fruition. Now if I'd taken MIL FF and the over, I could certainly understand why the bet would look so confusing in retrospect. I've just watched so many games where Yo lets the wheels fall off before he even gets on the track.

[No coincidences]

How crazy am I for wanting to back oak again? Yu is awesome no doubt but damn that line tempting.

I was thinking the +1.5 there. I don't necessarily think Oakland will win the game, but at these odds, given the lack of a legitimate gap between these two teams compared to the line, you almost have to take advantage of the inflated Yu number.