2013 MLB thread

[tatddy]

I'm on Tigres. GL Coiner get us a win.

[No coincidences]

I'm on Tigres. GL Coiner get us a win.

Hope you're right. I'm not making a play on this, but obviously, I'll be rooting for it to cash. Keeping my fingers crossed. Bring out the smelling salts.

[No coincidences]

Red Sox getting hammered at Pinny.

Line down to -103/-105. Wow.

[EXhoosier10]

This lineup is hilarious. "eh, i don't know what to do. Let's just move jackson down to the bottom and everyone else up one spot. Oh wait, keep Iglesias last."

[HOT WINGS]

Red Sox getting hammered at Pinny.

Line down to -103/-105. Wow.

Line been moving all day. Moved against Tigers every game so far same as Oakland series

[No coincidences]

This lineup is hilarious. "eh, i don't know what to do. Let's just move jackson down to the bottom and everyone else up one spot. Oh wait, keep Iglesias last."

Leyland isn't exactly a rocket scientist.

Hell, I don't remember the last time he's juggled his lineup.

[No coincidences]

Ah, f\*\*k it. Homer alert:

DET -110 (2.2U to win 2)

[EXhoosier10]

Not a chance drew was within a foot of the base on that throw with bases loaded

[tatddy]

There go those early runs I was expecting. Lets do this pal!

[HOT WINGS]

Fcuk yes! I knew these guys were gonna smack Peavy now hopefully fister can maintain. Shit Tigers should still be hitting. Drew wasn't even close to 2nd base.

[No coincidences]

There go those early runs I was expecting. Lets do this pal!

Fcuk yes! I knew these guys were gonna smack Peavy now hopefully fister can maintain. Shit Tigers should still be hitting. Drew wasn't even close to 2nd base.

[No coincidences]

Not a chance drew was within a foot of the base on that throw with bases loaded

That was awful.

[tatddy]

Congrats buddy!

[No coincidences]

Congrats buddy!

You too, tat. Wish they were all that easy.

1-0, +2U tonight
561-570, +99.91U thread

Given the above figure, I feel like I'm heading into the bottom of the 9th with a you know what right now.

[EXhoosier10]

I feel like I'm heading into the bottom of the 9th with a you know what right now.

What do pitchers think about when nobody talks to them between innings and they're only a few outs away from getting it? Seems like it'd get pretty boring

[No coincidences]

What do pitchers think about when nobody talks to them between innings and they're only a few outs away from getting it? Seems like it'd get pretty boring

I would want to be talking to people and keeping my mind off of it, but I guess that's why I never pitched beyond a cup of coffee at the collegiate level. LOL.

[Louisvillekid1]

Good work boys we all hit that game good

[Louisvillekid1]

I'm thinking under tonight

[No coincidences]

No opinion on the total for me, LK. Game 1 was 1-0, but a ton of walks and guys stranded all over the place. I doubt both pitcher holds up as well again tonight.

BOS +110 (2U to win 2.2)

If I'm wrong and Detroit goes up 3-2 heading back to Boston with Scherzer and JV, I'll gladly accept the loss.

[Louisvillekid1]

Rain forecast cancels any under play

[BigBoi]

Is taking the cards against Kerfax a chase bet? Kerfax at that price almost seems baited.

[No coincidences]

1-0, +2.2U tonight
562-570, +102.11U thread

Not exactly the way I wanted to clear the century mark, though. Man. Tigers have pissed away so many opportunities in this series. Frustrating.

[No coincidences]

Is taking the cards against Kerfax a chase bet? Kerfax at that price almost seems baited.

Price seems about right to me, given the situation and what happened in Game 2 with the same pitching matchup.

[No coincidences]

12-5, +17.09U playoffs (including wild-card games)

[fitguy67]

have a feeling Cards at +120 (5d reduced) may be as sweet as it's gonna get...so got me some...

just thought of a line from a Ray Charles song..."there's them that gets...and them that gets got"...

but no matter what happens to the price AFTER you take a position (ie. whether u end up "beating" or "losing to" the closing price) as NC and Bank have noted several times...it has little bearing to the result of the bet...getting a "good shopping" brownie-badge on most of your positions over the long-haul is a good thing indeed, but it doesn't do a damn thing to increase the likelihood that the ticket you just bought cashes...having said that...

Go Cards!!! (Cash my game 6...AND my Series bet)

[leetreaper]

12-5, +17.09U playoffs (including wild-card games)

[No coincidences]

Thanks lee. You've been doing great lately. Keep up the solid work pal.

[No coincidences]

have a feeling Cards at +120 (5d reduced) may be as sweet as it's gonna get...so got me some...

just thought of a line from a Ray Charles song..."there's them that gets...and them that gets got"...

but no matter what happens to the price AFTER you take a position (ie. whether u end up "beating" or "losing to" the closing price) as NC and Bank have noted several times...it has little bearing to the result of the bet...getting a "good shopping" brownie-badge on most of your positions over the long-haul is a good thing indeed, but it doesn't do a damn thing to increase the likelihood that the ticket you just bought cashes...having said that...

Go Cards!!! (Cash my game 6...AND my Series bet)

Cards or nothing for me, though I'm not exactly sold on Wacha beating Kerfax twice in one series.

[riffraff24]

Cards or nothing for me, though I'm not exactly sold on Wacha beating Kerfax twice in one series.

What do you think about taking the Dodgers for the series at +315 for a game 7 hedge opportunity?

[EXhoosier10]

What do you think about taking the Dodgers for the series at +315 for a game 7 hedge opportunity?

If you're thinking aboutmaking a bet with the sole purpose to hedge, you're wasting money. Bet on the game you think the dodgers are mispriced in. if you don't think that they are mispriced in any game, you're series bet is -EV based on the game odds provided.

[riffraff24]

If you're thinking aboutmaking a bet with the sole purpose to hedge, you're wasting money. Bet on the game you think the dodgers are mispriced in. if you don't think that they are mispriced in any game, you're series bet is -EV based on the game odds provided.

I'm gonna bet the Dodgers regardless. But instead of paying -125, wouldn't it be better to take them for the series then hedge?

I rarely make hedge moves, so just asking

[jessetk313]

Your definitely right Riff. That would be the best way to go about today's game if people think the Dodgers would win. WHat do you guys think WAinwright would open around in game 7 if it goes 7? Maybe -130 to -140?

[EXhoosier10]

I'm gonna bet the Dodgers regardless. But instead of paying -125, wouldn't it be better to take them for the series then hedge?

I rarely make hedge moves, so just asking

Fair line based on Monday's closer and switching for home field advantage is about -126, should open open around -130 with juice. So LAD should be +120 lets say.

If you bet LAD -125 today and +120 tomorrow, that's a 55.55% chance of winning today and 45.45% chance of winning tomorrow. multiply those two together and if you buy these odds, your chances of breaking even is 25.25%. that translates to a fair line of +316. Another way to say it is bet $1 at -125 today, win $0.80, roll that $1.80 into tomorrow's bet @ +120 and you get back $3.16. Basically betting 1 to get $3.16.

Same scenario but you bet $1 today @ +315 for the series, you win $3.15 if LAD win both games.

If you want to hedge, you'd bet $1 @ +315. Say LAD wins. you hedge tomorrow at -130. using the arbitrage calc by sbr, you bet $2.35 for a guaranteed profit of $0.80. Assuming you have br to hedge, you bet $1 for $0.80 profit should LAD win today. If you bet $1 on LAD to win tonight, you win $0.80 at -125 odds. Both situations, you bet $1. Betting on LAD tonight or betting the series with intent to hedge are reliant on LAD winning tonight, so neither is necessarily "better" than the other.
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That being said, if you think STL will be at -140 tomorrow, you'll end up only arbitraging for a 73¢ profit. Boils down to if you think you can get STL better than -130, bet the series and hedge. If you thnk STL opens more favored than that, take LAD tonight.

The only reason to ever begin a bet with the intent to hedge is if you think there is a mispricing somewhere in the market (ie - game 6 or game 7 lines). If you do think there is a mispricing, then you should intend to hedge and make a bet on the game as both lines are off.

[riffraff24]

Thanks Exhoosier. Appreciate it bruh

[SilverTongueFox]

Fair line based on Monday's closer and switching for home field advantage is about -126, should open open around -130 with juice. So LAD should be +120 lets say.

If you bet LAD -125 today and +120 tomorrow, that's a 55.55% chance of winning today and 45.45% chance of winning tomorrow. multiply those two together and if you buy these odds, your chances of breaking even is 25.25%. that translates to a fair line of +316. Another way to say it is bet $1 at -125 today, win $0.80, roll that $1.80 into tomorrow's bet @ +120 and you get back $3.16. Basically betting 1 to get $3.16.

Same scenario but you bet $1 today @ +315 for the series, you win $3.15 if LAD win both games.

If you want to hedge, you'd bet $1 @ +315. Say LAD wins. you hedge tomorrow at -130. using the arbitrage calc by sbr, you bet $2.35 for a guaranteed profit of $0.80. Assuming you have br to hedge, you bet $1 for $0.80 profit should LAD win today. If you bet $1 on LAD to win tonight, you win $0.80 at -125 odds. Both situations, you bet $1. Betting on LAD tonight or betting the series with intent to hedge are reliant on LAD winning tonight, so neither is necessarily "better" than the other.
------------------------------------
That being said, if you think STL will be at -140 tomorrow, you'll end up only arbitraging for a 73¢ profit. Boils down to if you think you can get STL better than -130, bet the series and hedge. If you thnk STL opens more favored than that, take LAD tonight.

The only reason to ever begin a bet with the intent to hedge is if you think there is a mispricing somewhere in the market (ie - game 6 or game 7 lines). If you do think there is a mispricing, then you should intend to hedge and make a bet on the game as both lines are off.

Now that's some damn fine coaching! Excellent post Ex. #bigbangtheory #is that you sheldon