Bulldog's MLB Plays

4/3/13 7:05pm Reduced Baseball 923 Boston Red Sox/New York Yankees Over 7½ -102* (C Buchholz - R must Start H Kuroda - R must Start)

4/3/13 10:05pm Reduced Baseball 927 Seattle Mariners/Oakland Athletics Under 7½ -110* (J Saunders - L must Start T Milone - L must Start)

4/3/13 8:10pm Reduced Baseball909 Colorado Rockies/Milwaukee Brewers Over 8½ -118* (J Nicasio - R must Start W Peralta - R must Start)

TxBulldog · 04-01-13, 08:05 AM

Yesterday - Win on Astros
Posted Record
1-0
+1.5u

Mon 4/1

1 unit plays
MIL (Gallardo/Chacin) -145
PHI (Hamels/Hudson) +105
STL (Wainwright/Kennedy) +100
MIL (Gallardo/Chacin) OVER7.5 -125

.5 unit plays
CIN (Weaver/Cueto) OVER7.5 +105
CWS (Shields/Sale) OVER7.5 +110

PLEASE NOTE: ALL my plays are units risk. For instance MIL -145 is risk 100 to win 68.97 and PHI is risk 100 to win 105. I know this is not how most do it, but it is the way I work. I manage my risk via a spreadsheet that I update daily and it is about managing RISK! My record will be kept using this same method.

TxBulldog · 04-02-13, 08:36 AM

Monday Results

2-3
-1.5U

YTD
3-3
Even

Looking at 5 plays for today...will post after I confirm a few things.

TxBulldog · 04-02-13, 09:03 AM

Tuesday

All risking 1 unit:

						4/2/13 7:05pm MLB Baseball 959 Cleveland Indians +171* vs Toronto Blue Jays (J Masterson - R must Start R Dickey - R must Start)

						4/2/13 8:10pm MLB Baseball 952 Milwaukee Brewers -141* vs Colorado Rockies (J De La Rosa - L must Start M Estrada - R must Start)

						4/2/13 10:10pm MLB Baseball 955 San Francisco Giants -102* vs Los Angeles Dodgers (M Bumgarner - L must Start H Ryu - L must Start)

						4/2/13 8:10pm Reduced Baseball 951 Colorado Rockies/Milwaukee Brewers Over 8 -115* (J De La Rosa - L must Start M Estrada - R must Start)

alwayswins9484 · 04-02-13, 09:05 AM

just checking

Originally posted by TxBulldog

Monday Results

2-3
-1.5U

YTD
3-3
Even

Looking at 5 plays for today...will post after I confirm a few things.

Shouldn't it be 2-4, not 2-3?

alwayswins9484 · 04-02-13, 09:10 AM

By the way, I like your betting philosophy especially the idea that there is no such thing as a lock and also that you base your bets on risk rather than the traditional "to win 100 if favorite, to risk 100 if underdog." I think all bets should be created equal no matter if they're a favorite or an underdog. If a bet has value, it has value. I think standardizing all bets allows the bettor to concentrate on his real job: identifying value.

TxBulldog · 04-02-13, 09:29 AM

Originally posted by alwayswins9484

Shouldn't it be 2-4, not 2-3?

Half unit plays are exactly that...hald a game in the record. There will be 1.5 and 2 unit plays after things get going. These count as as 1.5 or 2 games a piese in the record also.

alwayswins9484 · 04-02-13, 09:31 AM

Oh okay, but how are you accounting for the moneyline factor? Unit records don't tell the whole story. A 2-3 unit record on underdog plays is better than a 3-2 record relying on favorite plays.

TxBulldog · 04-02-13, 09:52 AM

At $100 unit size
1-0
+1.5u THIS SHOULD ACTUALLY BE + $152

Mon 4/1

1 unit plays
MIL (Gallardo/Chacin) -145 WIN $69
PHI (Hamels/Hudson) +105 LOSE $100
STL (Wainwright/Kennedy) +100 LOSE $100
MIL (Gallardo/Chacin) OVER7.5 -125 WIN $80

.5 unit plays
CIN (Weaver/Cueto) OVER7.5 +105 LOSE $50
CWS (Shields/Sale) OVER7.5 +110 LOSE $50

This actually nets out to +$1 A little miscalculation earlier, but essentially even. I will keep my record here using $100 units. I may make errors sometimes because I use a variable unit size (I am a modified kelly bettor). Because of my starting BR size and how my sheet works, I am up a LITTLE more, but the units sizes change nearly EVERY day.

I will try to keep this accurate (and apologize for the miscalculation), but quite honestly the posting is low priority behind family, work and keeping my model and BR sheet accurate.

TxBulldog · 04-03-13, 03:13 AM

Tue recap

3-1 for +$256

YTD
6-4 for +$257

looking at first line run now. Might be back with some Wed plays shortly.

TxBulldog · 04-03-13, 03:53 AM

Here are my sides for Wed. I will be back later today with my totals (if any) after I can look at conditions later in the day.

These are all one unit RISKED!

						4/3/13 10:05pm Reduced Baseball 928 Oakland Athletics -139* vs Seattle Mariners (J Saunders - L must Start T Milone - L must Start)

						4/3/13 8:10pm Reduced Baseball 909 Colorado Rockies +119* vs Milwaukee Brewers (J Nicasio - R must Start W Peralta - R must Start)

						4/3/13 7:05pm Reduced Baseball 921 Cleveland Indians +166* vs Toronto Blue Jays (U Jimenez - R must Start B Morrow - R must Start)

						4/3/13 7:05pm Reduced Baseball 924 New York Yankees -112* vs Boston Red Sox (C Buchholz - R must Start H Kuroda - R must Start)

						4/3/13 4:10pm Reduced Baseball 919 Detroit Tigers -151* vs Minnesota Twins (A Sanchez - R must Start K Correia - R must Start)

TxBulldog · 04-03-13, 12:13 PM

Here are my totals plays for the day. This is the first full slate of games and I have my first max card...... 8 units.

TxBulldog · 04-04-13, 06:32 AM

Wed recap

5-3 for + $233

YTD

11-7 for + $490

I will have my sides for Thursday posted in the next 15 minutes

TxBulldog · 04-04-13, 06:43 AM

Here are the sides.

These are all risk one unit each. I will post the totals around 11 AM CDT

						4/4/13 7:10pm Reduced Baseball 957 Philadelphia Phillies +117* vs Atlanta Braves (C Lee - L must Start K Medlen - R must Start)

						4/4/13 7:05pm Reduced Baseball 969 Cleveland Indians +153* vs Toronto Blue Jays (B Myers - R must Start M Buehrle - L must Start)

						4/4/13 2:10pm Reduced Baseball 962 Chicago White Sox -120* vs Kansas City Royals (J Guthrie - R must Start G Floyd - R must Start)

						4/4/13 1:10pm Reduced Baseball 953 San Diego Padres +137* vs New York Mets (E Stults - L must Start D Gee - R must Start)

						4/4/13 12:35pm Reduced Baseball 971 Los Angeles Angels +115* vs Cincinnati Reds (J Blanton - R must Start B Arroyo - R must Start)

TxBulldog · 04-04-13, 11:43 AM

Here are my dayshift totals. I am looking at one more for the night shift. Sorry for the late post if anyone is tailing.

						4/4/13 2:10pm Reduced Baseball 961 Kansas City Royals/Chicago White Sox Over 8 -105* (J Guthrie - R must Start G Floyd - R must Start)

						4/4/13 12:35pm Reduced Baseball 971 Los Angeles Angels/Cincinnati Reds Over 8 +100* (J Blanton - R must Start B Arroyo - R must Start)

TxBulldog · 04-04-13, 05:07 PM

I was looking at one total more for the night shift. However, conditions just aren't worth playing the total. However, the price of backing Pettite has fallen to a point I can't resist backing him.

My final unit of the day will be:

Yankees -115 (Pettite/Dempster)

Have the day off from work, so I have been spending the day watching the action. Great way to spend the afternoon. I go to the evening down a little over a half unit, so it would be nice to win 2 of 3 and get the winning streak up to 3 days. Guess I'll be a good hubby and take the wife out for a date night tonight.

TxBulldog · 04-04-13, 09:48 PM

Thursday finishes with a 4-4 record for + $39 Nice to win money, even if I didn't win units.

YTD is now 15-11 for + $529

That is a 57.7% start at an average winning price of +1.086 Historically I hit about 53-54% at a price of around +104, so this is a pretty good start to the season.

I will be posting late in the morning on Friday since I will be around the house in the AM and I cost myself some money today by playing too early.

Semper Fidelis · 04-04-13, 10:26 PM

Good start to the season buddy! What has been your profit for past seasons, and what is your goal for this season?

figue · 04-04-13, 11:52 PM

TxBulldog · 04-05-13, 09:45 AM

Originally posted by Semper Fidelis

Good start to the season buddy! What has been your profit for past seasons, and what is your goal for this season?

This is my first season 100% my own work. I am unfortunately unable to "tail" my mentor of over a decade any longer. The numbers I quoted above are based on last season when I did my own work for a few months. His results exceed that! My goal is hard to state in "forum" standards since they relate to my spreadsheet that controls everything! I have some goals and they are pretty damn lofty by forum standards. They are likely "unprovable" by forum standards since I know there will periods when I will not be able to post my plays. Suffice it to say that if I hit my goals for this year, my posted record should stand on its own.

As good a start as this has been, it has also included some "mistakes" on my part that have cost me $. It should have been better. Oh well.

Thanks for the kudos guys. I will work hard to keep it going.

TxBulldog · 04-05-13, 12:16 PM

Here is today's card. I REALLY like the O's game over. It is my first two un it of the year. Since my card worked out to only 7 units, I also tied it into a couple half unit parlays with big chalk where I think we have an edge, but refuse to lay the big lumber. (My model has the Tigers -215 and LAD -227) Not good BR managment, but I couldn't resist.

Gonna head to the Horseshoe now for a Afternoon/Evening of Poker.

			.5 UNIT			2 Team Parlay PAYS 1.12 UNITS
						4/5/13 10:10pm MLB Baseball 914 Los Angeles Dodgers -200* vs Pittsburgh Pirates (J Sanchez - L must Start Z Greinke - R must Start)
						4/5/13 3:05pm MLB Baseball 919 Minnesota Twins/Baltimore Orioles Over 9½ +105* (L Hendriks - R must Start J Arrieta - R must Start)

			.5 UNIT			2 Team Parlay PAYS 1.04 UNITS
						4/5/13 1:05pm MLB Baseball 916 Detroit Tigers -173* vs New York Yankees (I Nova - R must Start D Fister - R must Start)
						4/5/13 3:05pm MLB Baseball 919 Minnesota Twins/Baltimore Orioles Over 9½ +105* (L Hendriks - R must Start J Arrieta - R must Start)

			1 UNIT			4/5/13 7:10pm MLB Baseball 906 New York Mets -152* vs Miami Marlins (A Sanabia - R must Start J Hefner - R must Start)

			1 UNIT			4/5/13 4:35pm MLB Baseball 904 San Francisco Giants -118* vs St. Louis Cardinals (J Westbrook - R must Start B Zito - L must Start)

			1 UNIT			4/5/13 4:10pm MLB Baseball 901 San Diego Padres +150* vs Colorado Rockies (J Marquis - R must Start J Francis - L must Start)

			1 UNIT			4/5/13 8:10pm Reduced Baseball 925 Oakland Athletics/Houston Astros Over 8½ -105* (D Straily - R must Start B Peacock - R must Start)

			1 UNIT			4/5/13 4:10pm Reduced Baseball 901 San Diego Padres/Colorado Rockies Over 11 -110* (J Marquis - R must Start J Francis - L must Start)

			TWO UNITS			4/5/13 3:05pm Reduced Baseball 919 Minnesota Twins/Baltimore Orioles Over 9½ +110* (L Hendriks - R must Start J Arrieta - R must Start)

TxBulldog · 04-06-13, 01:58 AM

Just got back in from a very frustrating day of poker....you know how it is...you flop a set, they turn a flush...etc. Oh well, I nearly broke even, so I can't complain too much.

In MLB, I can't complain at all. I just graded my models performance and I have to give it a solid "B" on the day. Sides, I did a pretty poor judge in that I played SD and MIN but passed on ARZ. This was just poor decision making on my part. There were also two winning totals that I "took down" because I judged the weather to be unfavorable. In other words, the model performed very well, I didn't perform so well on my grading.

On the other hand, the Balt Over play was spot on. Still not the best decision I have ever made essentially playing 3 units on it, but it worked out. I will take it! Because of how this run has been going, I had a MONSTER day personally. I declared a hefty dividend today just to keep my unit size from being monstrous on Saturday.

For Friday,

I go 5-3 on units for + $315

YTD is now 20-14 and up $844

Off to bed....I will be back in the morning and will see if we can crack +$1000 in the first week!

TxBulldog · 04-06-13, 02:07 AM

I just input the opening lines for Saturday and noticed two things. I MAY have a 2 unit total again. We will see after I check weather in the AM. The second thing is I LOVE the line on Sea - Hernandez!

Already placed 1 unit SEA -133 (Henandez/Axelrod). I see this line climbing!

TxBulldog · 04-06-13, 11:52 AM

Slept late this AM. Here are the early games. I list ALL pitchers!

SEA -133 (posted last night, would still take at current price)

BOS/TOR Over 9 -110

BOS +129

All 1 unit each. I will be back after I review the rest of the card.

nbafanatic2012 · 04-06-13, 12:00 PM

all your plays are heavy public favorites

figue · 04-06-13, 12:27 PM

Originally posted by TxBulldog

Slept late this AM. Here are the early games. I list ALL pitchers!

SEA -133 (posted last night, would still take at current price)

BOS/TOR Over 9 -110

BOS +129

All 1 unit each. I will be back after I review the rest of the card.

TxBulldog · 04-06-13, 12:39 PM

all your plays are heavy public favorites......HUH?

TxBulldog · 04-06-13, 01:46 PM

Originally posted by TxBulldog

Slept late this AM. Here are the early games. I list ALL pitchers!

SEA -133 (posted last night, would still take at current price)

BOS/TOR Over 9 -110

BOS +129

All 1 unit each. I will be back after I review the rest of the card.

Here is the rest of today's card. Early games not not looking great so far.

These are all 1 units

Cubs +159
SDP +129
SFG Un 7 -115
ARI -105
PHI -115

Not the strongest card and the weather did not cooperate at all today!

TxBulldog · 04-07-13, 11:15 AM

A pretty poor showing on Saturday results in a setback. These days happen and I am at it again today.

Saturday 2-6, - $418

YTD 22-20, +$426

YTD now 52.4% at +110

Working the model now....back shortly

TxBulldog · 04-07-13, 11:53 AM

Here are my early plays. Still working on later games.

1 unit each

						4/7/13 1:35pm Reduced Baseball 919 Minnesota Twins/Baltimore Orioles Over 9 -109* (P Hernandez - R must Start J Hammel - R must Start)

						4/7/13 1:10pm Reduced Baseball 901 Miami Marlins/New York Mets Over 7½ -110* (J Fernandez - R must Start A Laffey - L must Start)

						4/7/13 1:10pm MLB Baseball 903 Washington Nationals +100* vs Cincinnati Reds (S Strasburg - R must Start J Cueto - R must Start)

						4/7/13 1:05pm MLB Baseball 916 Detroit Tigers -1 -145* vs New York Yankees (C Sabathia - L must Start J Verlander - R must Start

TxBulldog · 04-07-13, 12:19 PM

Here is the balance of the Sunday card. You will notice I am now using the -1 RL where there is value is good, but the price is over -155. I don't believe in laying the -1.5.

All one unit plays.

						4/7/13 2:10pm MLB Baseball 924 Chicago White Sox -1 -116* vs Seattle Mariners (H Iwakuma - R must Start C Sale - L must Start)

						4/7/13 4:05pm MLB Baseball 910 San Francisco Giants -126* vs St Louis Cardinals (A Wainwright - R must Start M Cain - R must Start)

						4/7/13 2:10pm MLB Baseball 908 Milwaukee Brewers +100* vs Arizona Diamondbacks (I Kennedy - R must Start Y Gallardo - R must Start)

						4/7/13 1:35pm MLB Baseball 920 Baltimore Orioles -1 -135* vs Minnesota Twins (P Hernandez - R must Start J Hammel - R must Start)