Be careful if you're taking Texas tonight over Houston

Big Bear · 03-31-13, 03:34 PM

i got a feeling EVERY $50 Joe is going to be on Texas tonight.

I was looking at Texas line-up and it actually looks weak compared to the last 3 seasons.

SteelRain · 03-31-13, 03:37 PM

ya norris is very underrated at home i lost $1300 fading him last year against the phillies

MagicDiceFlow · 03-31-13, 03:43 PM

Originally posted by Big Bear

i got a feeling EVERY $50 Joe is going to be on Texas tonight.

I was looking at Texas line-up and it actually looks weak compared to the last 3 seasons.

Agreed....also the addition of the aging duo of Berkman and Pierzynski can't make up for the loss of Hamilton and Young anchoring the lineup last year. Not saying that Texas won't win because Astros offense is still questionable but it won't be an easy win as most will think.

MagicDiceFlow · 03-31-13, 03:45 PM

Originally posted by SteelRain

ya norris is very underrated at home i lost $1300 fading him last year against the phillies

Every time Norris pitches at home it was lights out. He gets killed on the road but there's a night and day transformation at Minute Maid.

Big Bear · 03-31-13, 03:45 PM

Lance Berkman was awesome for the Cardinals 2 seasons ago but he is a big question mark going into the season bc he was injured almost all of last year.

MagicDiceFlow · 03-31-13, 03:49 PM

Berkman is on the decline. Nowhere near the bat speed from years ago. Bat speed is difficult to regain from aging players. He'll be lucky to bat .270 and twenty homers this year.

Colin Kaepernick · 03-31-13, 03:54 PM

Dont overthink too much boys... They play this game 10 times Texas wins 7.5 out of 10 every time.

MagicDiceFlow · 03-31-13, 03:59 PM

Originally posted by Colin Kaepernick

Dont overthink too much boys... They play this game 10 times Texas wins 7.5 out of 10 every time.

Who cares about the other times they play, just this specific game. No doubt that the Astros will most likely stink it up this year and I'll be fading them a lot in other games. However with Norris on the mound at home, I don't see much value on Texas tonight.

Colin Kaepernick · 03-31-13, 04:01 PM

Originally posted by MagicDiceFlow

Who cares about the other times they play, just this specific game. No doubt that the Astros will most likely stink it up this year and I'll be fading them a lot in other games. However with Norris on the mound at home, I don't see much value on Texas tonight.

The value is that Texas is the better team and its only a matter of time until they break through with a rally and I don't think Houston will do much damage against Harrison.

MagicDiceFlow · 03-31-13, 08:23 PM

Originally posted by Colin Kaepernick

The value is that Texas is the better team and its only a matter of time until they break through with a rally and I don't think Houston will do much damage against Harrison.

Told you fellas...Norris is lights out at home.....shutout after 4 innings.......every square was on Texas tonight. Sharp bettors knew whats up with that line tonight.

Colin Kaepernick · 03-31-13, 08:27 PM

LOL

This is funny on a few levels...

1) You are acting like the game is over. A bloop and a blast and we are tied.

2) Even if Houston wins, this does not necessarily mean that "sharp bettors" were on Houston for a couple reasons. You are being results oriented on a miniscule sample size.

Goodfella0226 · 03-31-13, 08:29 PM

This might be one of the few games the Astros win all year!!

MagicDiceFlow · 03-31-13, 08:31 PM

Originally posted by Colin Kaepernick

LOL

This is funny on a few levels...

1) You are acting like the game is over. A bloop and a blast and we are tied.

2) Even if Houston wins, this does not necessarily mean that "sharp bettors" were on Houston for a couple reasons. You are being results oriented on a miniscule sample size.

Your statement right there is contradictory.....lol.

Colin Kaepernick · 03-31-13, 08:33 PM

Originally posted by MagicDiceFlow

Your statement right there is contradictory.....lol.

No it isnt. In the following sentence I explained why it makes perfect sense.

MagicDiceFlow · 03-31-13, 08:38 PM

The two main reasons why Texas was a square bet is because Norris is lights out at home and Texas offense is not the same this year exactly how I mentioned above......and both reasons are spot on so far.

Much better than your reasoning of taking Texas because "Texas is the better team and its only a matter of time until they break through with a rally" .........pretty sharp reasoning right there....LOL.

TxBulldog · 03-31-13, 08:44 PM

Actually, Texas is a VERY poor value tonight and will be for most every game Darvish is not on the mound for the first month or so. John Q. Public does not realize how weak their attack is this year. The pitching staff is OK, but not great. The price tonight for this pitching matchup AT HOUSTON was a joke.

The sharp bettors I know NEVER lay -160 on a FAV, no matter the pitchers. +150 (or more) was a real gift on this game....even if it loses. And it still can! The line should have been more like TX -110, -120 MAX!

Colin Kaepernick · 03-31-13, 08:49 PM

How much money are those "sharp bettors" ahead in the last 3 years?

MagicDiceFlow · 03-31-13, 08:49 PM

Originally posted by TxBulldog

Actually, Texas is a VERY poor value tonight and will be for most every game Darvish is not on the mound for the first month or so. John Q. Public does not realize how weak their attack is this year. The pitching staff is OK, but not great. The price tonight for this pitching matchup AT HOUSTON was a joke.

The sharp bettors I know NEVER lay -160 on a FAV, no matter the pitchers. +150 (or more) was a real gift on this game....even if it loses. And it still can! The line should have been more like TX -110, -120 MAX!

Correct ......how can you lay -160 on a Rangers team with a gigantic hole missing in the middle of that lineup AND against one of the best home pitchers in baseball the last two years. Savvy bettors reeled in on that 1.71 ERA for Norris over 70+ innings at home. That's a glaring stat that I just cannot ignore.

Colin Kaepernick · 03-31-13, 08:51 PM

Norris getting tired. Leadoff walk. This could be the inning.

Smutbucket · 03-31-13, 09:11 PM

I agree with diceflow in this entire thread.

MagicDiceFlow · 03-31-13, 09:51 PM

Ballgame Astros .......Rangers aren't coming back from 5 runs, not with this year's offense.

Colin Kaepernick · 03-31-13, 09:53 PM

Congrats Houston Backers... MLB is a marathon and you guys are certainly off to a good start.