mlb chase 2013

[Stifler]

16.06.2013

S3

(C Bet) Cubs fade: NY Mets 1,787 1,27u | NY Mets 1,826 2,748u | NY Mets 1,943 5,338u

P3

(A Bet) J.Lester fade: Baltimore 1,943 1,06u


________________________________________ _____________________________________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3

[Stifler]

Hi Stiff,
Long time follower and fan. System did great last year and ... obviously not as strong this year. hopefully it turns around.

That said, I've always been a bit of a critic of risking 20 units to win 1 unit. I've always though, heck if you are throwing 20 units at a game to make 1 unit profit, why not throw 21 units at the game and make 2 units profit. 2 units profit is 100% more profit.
And should you lose, well you lost 21 units instead of 20.

I mean the thought is that the odds are less likely of a C or D loss, so why don't we cater to that. Obviously, to increase the bet sizes extremely will not be beneficial. but i think a certain balance might be efficient at Increasing profit.

Let me explain:
[ATTACH]57712[/ATTACH]
[ATTACH]57714[/ATTACH]

So basically we are talking about labbying. Probably something to make more money out of a chase system. Still im not going to play it, not yet. I do like the idea of playing the D bet for 2 units or even 3 units, cause it really doesnt matter playing the D bet for 1-3 units more. I think im going to think about it when the next D bet comes up.

How do u increase ur winning units from A-D bets? If im seeing this right its A=1 / B=1,5 / C=2 / D=3 units.
How do u come up with those numbers?

[Grinder12000]

Gotta laugh at 5Dimes - they really change their philosophy on weekends. Their lines suck Friday to Sunday if you are playing favorites but are decent during the week.

[DocZ]

Hey Stifler, I think you missed adding your "1 unit to win" on the Cubs fade.

[Stifler]

Hey Stifler, I think you missed adding your "1 unit to win" on the Cubs fade.

thx, edited.

[illisdre]

So basically we are talking about labbying. Probably something to make more money out of a chase system. Still im not going to play it, not yet. I do like the idea of playing the D bet for 2 units or even 3 units, cause it really doesnt matter playing the D bet for 1-3 units more. I think im going to think about it when the next D bet comes up.

How do u increase ur winning units from A-D bets? If im seeing this right its A=1 / B=1,5 / C=2 / D=3 units.
How do u come up with those numbers?

In the example I showed, it was just a simple multiplication. The B stake was x1.25, C x1.40, D x1.50

This can also be done with exponents. And, for your sake, it can be auto-calculated through excel.

Do you use excel when you are tracking and posting odds? I'm going to work on a spreadsheet to automaticly multiply the stake to give a constant win amount for B, C, D bets.
Let me know if you want a copy, i'll post here when I get to it.

[knugen]

haha are you kiddin me.. a 3 run HR bottom 9th and a win for mets

[Stifler]

In the example I showed, it was just a simple multiplication. The B stake was x1.25, C x1.40, D x1.50

This can also be done with exponents. And, for your sake, it can be auto-calculated through excel.

Do you use excel when you are tracking and posting odds? I'm going to work on a spreadsheet to automaticly multiply the stake to give a constant win amount for B, C, D bets.
Let me know if you want a copy, i'll post here when I get to it.

Im listing all plays on paper (book). All backtested numbers are listed in excel. Nothing more i need...

[Stifler]

16.06.2013

S3

(C Bet) Cubs fade: NY Mets 1,787 1,27u | NY Mets 1,826 2,748u | NY Mets 1,943 5,338u

P3

(A Bet) J.Lester fade: Baltimore 1,943 1,06u

records:
S1: W 21 | L 0 (+21,00 units)
S2: W 17 | L 2 (-9,639 units)
S3: W 108 | L 4 (-13,102 units)
P1: W 13 | L 1 (+4,971 units)
P2: W 18 | L 1 (+5,676 units)
P3: W 23 | L 0 (+23,00 units)


pending:
- P2 J.Guthrie, B Bet on next start
- P3 G.Gonzalez, C Bet on next start on the road
- P3 M.Bumgarner fade, C Bet on next start on the road
- P2 CJ Wilson fade, B Bet on next start
- P3 J.Saunders fade, B Bet on next start on the road
- S2 Phil fade, D Bet on 17.06.2013
- S1 Col fade, B Bet on 17.06.2013
- S2 Cle fade, B Bet on 24.06.2013

________________________________________ _____________________________________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3

[Stifler]

17.06.2013

S1

(B Bet) Col fade: Cincinnati 1,521 1,92u | Toronto 1,719 4,061u
(A Bet) Pit fade: Cincinnati 1,855 1,17u

S2

(D Bet) Phil fade: Mia 2,78 0,562u | Mia 2,66 0,941u | Mia 2,83 1,368u | Washington - waiting on lm

S3

(A Bet) Balti fade: Detroit - no line up atm
(A Bet) Det: Detroit - no line up atm
(A Bet) SF: San Francisco 1,714 1,40u
(A Bet) Pit fade: Cincinnati 1,855 1,17u
(A Bet) Tor: Toronto 1,719 1,39u

P1

(A Bet) D.Haren fade: Phillies -1,5 2,90 0,526u

P2

(A Bet) D.Haren fade: Phillies 1,971 1,03u


potential plays:
- S3 Oak fade, if line +100 or more

________________________________________ _____________________________________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3

[Stifler]

- Detroit line added.

17.06.2013

S1

(B Bet) Col fade: Cincinnati 1,521 1,92u | Toronto 1,719 4,061u
(A Bet) Pit fade: Cincinnati 1,855 1,17u

S2

(D Bet) Phil fade: Mia 2,78 0,562u | Mia 2,66 0,941u | Mia 2,83 1,368u | Washington - waiting on lm

S3

(A Bet) Balti fade: Detroit 1,526 1,90u
(A Bet) Det: Detroit 1,526 1,90u
(A Bet) SF: San Francisco 1,714 1,40u
(A Bet) Pit fade: Cincinnati 1,855 1,17u
(A Bet) Tor: Toronto 1,719 1,39u

P1

(A Bet) D.Haren fade: Phillies -1,5 2,90 0,526u

P2

(A Bet) D.Haren fade: Phillies 1,971 1,03u


potential plays:
- S3 Oak fade, if line +100 or more


________________________________________ _____________________________________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3

[Stifler]

- Washington line & S3 Oak fade series added.

17.06.2013

S1

(B Bet) Col fade: Cincinnati 1,521 1,92u | Toronto 1,719 4,061u
(A Bet) Pit fade: Cincinnati 1,855 1,17u

S2

(D Bet) Phil fade: Mia 2,78 0,562u | Mia 2,66 0,941u | Mia 2,83 1,368u | Washington 1,862 4,491u

S3

(A Bet) Balti fade: Detroit 1,526 1,90u
(A Bet) Det: Detroit 1,526 1,90u
(A Bet) SF: San Francisco 1,714 1,40u
(A Bet) Pit fade: Cincinnati 1,855 1,17u
(A Bet) Tor: Toronto 1,719 1,39u
(A Bet) Oak fade: Texas 1,877 1,14u

P1

(A Bet) D.Haren fade: Phillies -1,5 2,90 0,526u

P2

(A Bet) D.Haren fade: Phillies 1,971 1,03u



________________________________________ _____________________________________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3

[Stifler]

17.06.2013

S1

(B Bet) Col fade: Cincinnati 1,521 1,92u | Toronto 1,719 4,061u
(A Bet) Pit fade: Cincinnati 1,855 1,17u

S2

(D Bet) Phil fade: Mia 2,78 0,562u | Mia 2,66 0,941u | Mia 2,83 1,368u | Washington 1,862 4,491u

S3

(A Bet) Balti fade: Detroit 1,526 1,90u
(A Bet) Det: Detroit 1,526 1,90u
(A Bet) SF: San Francisco 1,714 1,40u
(A Bet) Pit fade: Cincinnati 1,855 1,17u
(A Bet) Tor: Toronto 1,719 1,39u
(A Bet) Oak fade: Texas 1,877 1,14u

P1

(A Bet) D.Haren fade: Phillies -1,5 2,90 0,526u

P2

(A Bet) D.Haren fade: Phillies 1,971 1,03u

- S2 Phil fade series lost = -7,362 units

records:
S1: W 23 | L 0 (+23,00 units)
S2: W 17 | L 3 (-17,001 units)
S3: W 113 | L 4 (-8,102 units)
P1: W 13 | L 1 (+4,971 units)
P2: W 19 | L 1 (+6,676 units)
P3: W 23 | L 0 (+23,00 units)


pending:
- P2 J.Guthrie, B Bet on next start
- P3 G.Gonzalez, C Bet on next start on the road
- P3 M.Bumgarner fade, C Bet on next start on the road
- P2 CJ Wilson fade, B Bet on next start
- P3 J.Saunders fade, B Bet on next start on the road
- P1 D.Haren fade, B Bet on next start
- S2 Cle fade, B Bet on 24.06.2013
- S3 SF, B Bet on 18.06.2013

________________________________________ _____________________________________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3

[Stifler]

18.06.2013

S3

(B Bet) SF: San Francisco 1,714 1,40u | San Francisco 1,68 3,529u
(A Bet) NYY: NY Yankees 1,943 1,06u
(A Bet) TB fade: Boston 1,855 1,17u (game1)


________________________________________ _____________________________________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3

[jesramos]

Stifler,
For the Tampa Bay fade, are you fading both games ?

[chound]

Stifler,
For the Tampa Bay fade, are you fading both games ?

If Tampa wins the 1st you'll fade them the 2nd as well....Chase over if Boston wins game 1

[jesramos]

Thanks ! 👍

[Stifler]

18.06.2013

S3

(B Bet) SF: San Francisco 1,714 1,40u | San Francisco 1,68 3,529u
(A Bet) NYY: NY Yankees 1,943 1,06u - ppd
(A Bet) TB fade: Boston 1,855 1,17u (game1)

records:
S1: W 23 | L 0 (+23,00 units)
S2: W 17 | L 3 (-17,001 units)
S3: W 115 | L 4 (-6,102 units)
P1: W 13 | L 1 (+4,971 units)
P2: W 19 | L 1 (+6,676 units)
P3: W 23 | L 0 (+23,00 units)


pending:
- P2 J.Guthrie, B Bet on next start
- P3 G.Gonzalez, C Bet on next start on the road
- P3 M.Bumgarner fade, C Bet on next start on the road
- P2 CJ Wilson fade, B Bet on next start
- P3 J.Saunders fade, B Bet on next start on the road
- P1 D.Haren fade, B Bet on next start
- S2 Cle fade, B Bet on 24.06.2013

________________________________________ _____________________________________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3

[Stifler]

19.06.2013

S2
(A Bet) Ari fade: Miami 2,56 0,641u

S3

(A Bet) NYY: Yankees - no line up atm (game 1)

P2

(B Bet) CJ Wilson fade: NY Yankees 2,30 0,769u | Seattle 3,08 0,851u

P3

(C Bet) G.Gonzalez: Wash 2,26 0,794u | Wash 2,25 1,435u | Washington 1,901 3,584u
(B Bet) J.Saunders fade: Oakland 1,503 1,988u | LA Angels 1,439 6,806u


________________________________________ _____________________________________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3

[vigster]

Yanks line up

[Stifler]

- NYY line added.

19.06.2013

S2

(A Bet) Ari fade: Miami 2,56 0,641u

S3

(A Bet) NYY: Yankees 1,741 1,35u

P2

(B Bet) CJ Wilson fade: NY Yankees 2,30 0,769u | Seattle 3,08 0,851u

P3

(C Bet) G.Gonzalez: Wash 2,26 0,794u | Wash 2,25 1,435u | Washington 1,901 3,584u
(B Bet) J.Saunders fade: Oakland 1,503 1,988u | LA Angels 1,439 6,806u


________________________________________ _____________________________________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3

[hj443]

nice... although both were very close games, we won some $$$. Thanks a lot Stifler.

[Stifler]

19.06.2013

S2

(A Bet) Ari fade: Miami 2,56 0,641u

S3

(A Bet) NYY: Yankees 1,741 1,35u

P2

(B Bet) CJ Wilson fade: NY Yankees 2,30 0,769u | Seattle 3,08 0,851u

P3

(C Bet) G.Gonzalez: Wash 2,26 0,794u | Wash 2,25 1,435u | Washington 1,901 3,584u
(B Bet) J.Saunders fade: Oakland 1,503 1,988u | LA Angels 1,439 6,806u

records:
S1: W 23 | L 0 (+23,00 units)
S2: W 17 | L 3 (-17,001 units)
S3: W 116 | L 4 (-5,102 units)
P1: W 13 | L 1 (+4,971 units)
P2: W 19 | L 1 (+6,676 units)
P3: W 25 | L 0 (+25,00 units)


pending:
- P2 J.Guthrie, B Bet on next start
- P3 M.Bumgarner fade, C Bet on next start on the road
- P2 CJ Wilson fade, C Bet on next start
- P1 D.Haren fade, B Bet on next start
- S2 Cle fade, B Bet on 24.06.2013
- S2 Ari fade, B Bet on 21.06.2013

________________________________________ _____________________________________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3

[Grinder12000]

Lots of early games today. Just a heads up.

[Stifler]

20.06.2013

S3

(A Bet) Bos fade: Detroit 1,813 1,23u


________________________________________ _____________________________________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3

[Lakey]

St. Louis last 5 home games have been: L-W-W-L-WLos Angeles last 5 home games: W-W-L-W-L-WI'm not sure how these qualify as system 1/2 plays?

[skyscrapers]

For the P2 CJ Wilson fade yesterday, Seattle lost 1-0 to the Angels so shouldn't it be graded as a loss instead of a win??

[Stifler]

St. Louis last 5 home games have been: L-W-W-L-WLos Angeles last 5 home games: W-W-L-W-L-WI'm not sure how these qualify as system 1/2 plays?

yeah, covers somehow showed it wrong when i was looking at it earlier today, there were a few mistakes showing results from may. S1 Stl is not a system play. I already placed the bet and probably will go for a 4 game chase.

S2 LAA also isnt a system play, covers did also put wrong data from may in here when i backtested it. Will have a look at the full card again...

For the P2 CJ Wilson fade yesterday, Seattle lost 1-0 to the Angels so shouldn't it be graded as a loss instead of a win??

wrong color...fixed.

[Stifler]

- todays plays updated. S3 SD series added.

20.06.2013

S3

(A Bet) Bos fade: Detroit 1,813 1,23u
(A Bet) SD: San Diego 1,758 1,32u



________________________________________ _____________________________________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3

[Stifler]

20.06.2013

S3

(A Bet) Bos fade: Detroit 1,813 1,23u
(A Bet) SD: San Diego 1,758 1,32u

records:
S1: W 23 | L 0 (+23,00 units)
S2: W 17 | L 3 (-17,001 units)
S3: W 118 | L 4 (-3,102 units)
P1: W 13 | L 1 (+4,971 units)
P2: W 19 | L 1 (+6,676 units)
P3: W 25 | L 0 (+25,00 units)


pending:
- P2 J.Guthrie, B Bet on next start
- P3 M.Bumgarner fade, C Bet on next start on the road
- P2 CJ Wilson fade, C Bet on next start
- P1 D.Haren fade, B Bet on next start
- S2 Cle fade, B Bet on 24.06.2013
- S2 Ari fade, B Bet on 21.06.2013

________________________________________ _____________________________________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3

[Stifler]

If u played LAA and Stl like i mistakenly did, u have 2 extra winners.

[Stifler]

21.06.2013

S2

(B Bet) Ari fade: Miami 2,56 0,641u | Cincinnati 1,813 2,018u
(A Bet) Phil: Phillies 1,602 1,66u

P2

(B Bet) J.Guthrie:Kansas City 2,52 0,658u | Kansas City 1,758 2,187u


________________________________________ _____________________________________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3

[Grinder12000]

If u played LAA and Stl like i mistakenly did, u have 2 extra winners.

People will only remember mistakes that lose!!

[knugen]

People will only remember mistakes that lose!!

im afraid youre right. im one of them that bet on LAA and STL sp thx stiff

[Stifler]

21.06.2013

S2

(B Bet) Ari fade: Miami 2,56 0,641u | Cincinnati 1,813 2,018u
(A Bet) Phil: Phillies 1,602 1,66u

P2

(B Bet) J.Guthrie:Kansas City 2,52 0,658u | Kansas City 1,758 2,187u

records:
S1: W 23 | L 0 (+23,00 units)
S2: W 17 | L 3 (-17,001 units)
S3: W 118 | L 4 (-3,102 units)
P1: W 13 | L 1 (+4,971 units)
P2: W 19 | L 1 (+6,676 units)
P3: W 25 | L 0 (+25,00 units)


pending:
- P2 J.Guthrie, C Bet on next start
- P3 M.Bumgarner fade, C Bet on next start on the road
- P2 CJ Wilson fade, C Bet on next start
- P1 D.Haren fade, B Bet on next start
- S2 Cle fade, B Bet on 24.06.2013
- S2 Ari fade, C Bet on 22.06.2013
- S2 Phil, B Bet on 22.06.2013

________________________________________ _____________________________________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3