computer program Spring Training 2013 picks

mhille · 03-08-13, 05:43 PM

Seahawks canceled?.. damn. I had a feeling Russel Wilson was gonna have a big day.

pm4e · 03-08-13, 05:50 PM

haha, my bad. I have the NFL on my mind.. fixed!

Anyway, no plays on the evening games. Will be back tomorrow.

Record:
16-4, +11.56 units (no change in units today)

pm4e · 03-09-13, 11:32 AM

Saturday 3/9/2013:
TOR -120, 1.20 units to win 1.00
PHI -130, 1.30 units to win 1.00
LAA -140, 1.40 units to win 1.00

Might add ATL, which is a 1:00EST game. Also waiting for data on MIL/CIN KC/SF, CLE/CHC, CHW/ARI, and BAL/BOS. No plays on MIN/PIT, HOU/NYM, or SEA/LAD games

pm4e · 03-09-13, 01:15 PM

Saturday 3/9/2013
Adding:
CLE -125, 1.25 units to win 1.00

Just waiting for data on BAL/BOS
Edit: No Play on BAL/BOS

pm4e · 03-09-13, 06:16 PM

Record:
18-6, +10.86 units (dropping 0.70 units today)

back at it tomorrow!

pm4e · 03-10-13, 10:00 AM

Sunday 3/10/2013:
TOR -130, 1.95 units to win 1.50
ATL -155, 1.55 units to win 1.00
PHI -140, 1.40 units to win 1.00

Waiting for 4EST games

pm4e · 03-10-13, 11:19 AM

Out of the rest of the games, I might have a play on SFG or CLE. I'll post if I do.

Edit: No other plays today

Hanger · 03-10-13, 12:03 PM

Originally posted by pm4e

Sunday 3/10/2013:
TOR -130, 1.95 units to win 1.50
ATL -155, 1.55 units to win 1.00
PHI -140, 1.40 units to win 1.00

Waiting for 4EST games

ATL seems pretty heavy chalk for spring game....BOL tho can't criticize winning!!

Yazworm91 · 03-10-13, 01:31 PM

Pm4e is your avatar pic a Vanderbilt logo?

crackerjack · 03-10-13, 02:14 PM

Why pay -155 on basically a toss up game?

vikingfan101 · 03-10-13, 02:51 PM

Looks like I chose the wrong few days to tail.

pm4e · 03-10-13, 04:16 PM

Originally posted by Yazworm91

Pm4e is your avatar pic a Vanderbilt logo?

yessir

Had a negative day today, will look at my numbers and go from there. variance.. it happens.

Record:
19-8, +8.36 units (dropping 2.50 units today)

Roadkill86 · 03-10-13, 09:28 PM

Originally posted by crackerjack

Why pay -155 on basically a toss up game?

I can only assume his numbers saw a huge edge for the Braves, but, yeah, not sure how a Spring Training game could have that big of an edge.

pm4e · 03-10-13, 10:56 PM

Originally posted by Roadkill86

I can only assume his numbers saw a huge edge for the Braves, but, yeah, not sure how a Spring Training game could have that big of an edge.

this.

Believe me I'm always apprehensive about taking the biggest favourite on the board, but the numbers were there. On to tomorrow.

pm4e · 03-11-13, 11:14 AM

large card for me today...

Monday 3/11/2013:
DET -150, 1.50 units to win 1.00 (yes it's the biggest favourite again)
ARI -125, 1.25 units to win 1.00
OAK EV, 1.00 units to win 1.00
STL EV, 1.00 units to win 1.00
CLE -105, 1.05 units to win 1.00
ATL +115, 1.00 units to win 1.15
MIA EV, 1.00 units to win 1.00

Hanger · 03-11-13, 11:40 AM

Originally posted by pm4e

large card for me today...

Monday 3/11/2013:
DET -150, 1.50 units to win 1.00 (yes it's the biggest favourite again)
ARI -125, 1.25 units to win 1.00
OAK EV, 1.00 units to win 1.00
STL EV, 1.00 units to win 1.00
CLE -105, 1.05 units to win 1.00
ATL +115, 1.00 units to win 1.15
MIA EV, 1.00 units to win 1.00

I've just looked at the early games so far, but MIA, STL, ATL all on my card as well....I think for the rest of spring I've gotta toss out the biggest favs of the day. Hasn't worked well for me so far. BOL today pm4e

pm4e · 03-11-13, 12:11 PM

Yeah, I looked back through my spring training last year.. started on March 10th and only had 3 plays at -150 or higher. GL to you as well!

Monday 3/11/2013:
Adding:
TEX -125, 1.25 units to win 1.00

vikingfan101 · 03-11-13, 01:43 PM

Seems like the biggest fav has lost the last few days, doesn't it? Might just try taking the biggest dog ML at this point.

pm4e · 03-12-13, 11:11 AM

I am going to take a close look at the system later this week when I have some free time. Definitely not happy with this latest turn.

Record:
21-13, +4.51 units

pm4e · 03-12-13, 11:17 AM

Tuesday 3/12/2013:
KC -120, 1.20 units to win 1.00
PHI -125, 1.25 units to win 1.00
HOU +105, 1.00 units to win 1.05

pm4e · 03-13-13, 12:53 PM

Friday during the day I should have some free time to go through my program and see where it's going wrong. Right now I feel that I'm "torturing the data" in that it's leading me to pick heavy favorites over value plays. GL to other Spring Training guys in this forum.

High3rEl3m3nt · 03-13-13, 01:43 PM

pm4e, I got to ask, how do you program these games, when pitching rotation, expected number of innings pitched, line-ups, etc., are not defined and are subject to change given the nature of pre-season.

High3rEl3m3nt · 03-13-13, 01:45 PM

It seems that Spring Training would introduce so many extraordinary variables that they would exceed the ability to account for.

EXhoosier10 · 03-13-13, 01:52 PM

Originally posted by High3rEl3m3nt

It seems that Spring Training would introduce so many extraordinary variables that they would exceed the ability to account for.

HE, I capped the first week or two of ST and there were a lot of mispriced games when all SP woudl go 2 and RP would go 1. Now with everyone on different schedules, i have no idea how to cap and i'm sitting it out until i can reason differently. I think you're onto something

High3rEl3m3nt · 03-13-13, 02:36 PM

I think it's so important to go into the regular season with a clear and positive mindset. Outside of maybe betting on some of the worst regular season performing teams in the Spring, who sometimes try to create momentum to carry over into the reg. season, it requires a whole different approach that I am not willing to take on.

For one, a lot of the marquee pitchers are instructed to use their stuff conservatively, they are not going to give it their all...a real emphasis on easing into it. Prospects on the other hand, use Spring Training as their proving grounds. Then, there's limited AB's for top tier players and when all of this is considered, it's way too much work to stay on top of. I don't see how any program could be configured to simulate spring training games.

pm4e · 03-13-13, 07:00 PM

Originally posted by High3rEl3m3nt

pm4e, I got to ask, how do you program these games, when pitching rotation, expected number of innings pitched, line-ups, etc., are not defined and are subject to change given the nature of pre-season.

I follow a bunch of people on twitter and check a few web sites for the batting lineup/order and list of pitchers. I don't factor in expected number of innings pitched or the actual rotation of pitchers. Same for pinch hitters. Last year I cleared over 30 units in Spring Training averaging only 2 plays per day. This year there are more plays and more favorites, so I need to take a closer look to find what's changed.

High3rEl3m3nt · 03-13-13, 07:36 PM

So how do you scramble to include, and often translate, that information into hard data that your program can compute? So much of what you would need is relatively unkown or very little tested. So hard to know what you're measuring and attempting to predict. Pitchers don't even show their best stuff in the Spring, so regular season data and match-ups are not exactly relevant. So many fresh faces with no data...seems you would have to make-up data for unknown players in order for the program to work. Might be best to just focus on the regular season.

pm4e · 03-13-13, 11:18 PM

Yeah it can be a hassle at times. Regular season is a separate program and much less intensive. Spring Training is a whole 'nother ballgame.

pm4e · 03-20-13, 01:38 PM

Sorry for the lack of updates. I'm pretty much resigned to collecting data to work on a system for spring training 2014. Still planning on beginning reg season in the middle of April.