Football Reviews, Opinions, & Picks

[Giz]

Hey guys,

Keeping it simple, with the domestic leagues returning I can't keep away. New thread to talk about football aka soccer along with some insights to what to wager everybody is welcome. I enjoy gambling the English Premier League.

Different strategy pretty basic 2 unit system 1-3 wagered depending on strength of pick, not going with the 5 units maybe 1 or 2 per month. Everyone can do whatever they want this is just to discuss the wonderful sport.

Odds taken sides, totals, AH from pinnacle, props goalscorers etc Bet365.

[Giz]

Futures
Uefa Champions League Outright 13/14: Barcelona 5.23 Pinnacle 1U
Barclays Premier League 13/14 Relegation: Sunderland 2.00 BET365 2U

At the moment I have these futures I like to put forward I will decide on others.

The Champions League seems one sided this year, with the public backing FC Bayern to retain their crown. This has never been done before, acknowledging the talent the German side possess I still think the value and motivation is with Barcelona. I strongly believe this to be the case especially with Neymar along with Messi who after his good old rest will be back to scoring ways...there former coach has had to battle through cancer Tito Vilanova.

Last season the Catalan's got mauled by the Germans this will be a factor, they won't like it one bit and will avenge if these two sides meet, I was pushing Real Madrid mainly because of Carlo Ancelotti who is an fantastic coach however with Sami Khedira out for most of the season and Alonso's inconsistency with fitness gives me no doubt they will struggle this season, there is no way you can win the Champions League without stability through the middle, Paris Saint Germain excite me with 15.00 odds its worth a punt, Laurent Blanc is an upcoming talented coach who I thought would takeover from Alex Ferguson, They have spent a lot of money on their defence and with Cavani and Zlatan they have the fire power too, however they do not have a world class holding midfielder...only three recognisable Motta, Verratti, Matuidi who are good in there own right but not good enough to win it, definatly worth monitoring and backing them to reach the Semis at least.

Relegation
Sunderland were in disarray earlier in the season, sold one of the best keepers in the league without really replacing him along with selling your main creative spark in Sessegnon, along with there squad its not really the greatest although Poyet has come in and achieved some impressive results they seem a different side at the moment, unfortunately for the Black cats the teams above them are better and I think at 2.00, 2.10 at William hill is a good price.

[edabramov]

I don't have the option to make these type of bets but I could definitely see Sunderland struggling, although they did get into decent form with their new coach lately.. Crystal Palace doesn't seem to be changing.

[Giz]

I don't have the option to make these type of bets but I could definitely see Sunderland struggling, although they did get into decent form with their new coach lately.. Crystal Palace doesn't seem to be changing.

Crystal Palace are down its a shame really, there sorting out which manager will lead them into the championship most likely Tony Pulis, the other Sunderland looks a good shout 3rd team people are saying Fulham but not for me they have too much fire power up front I mean a team with Dimitar Berbatov relegated? Please...I like West Ham 5.5 , Hull 4.0 reason for Hammers aka West Ham is because there really struggling without a striker Andy Carroll is long term and its a good price for a small punt especially if they don't sort out the mess upfront you can't be playing Mohammed Diame up front because you will get relegated despite decent defensive record they can't score.

[Giz]

2 Units
Proposition/Future
Soccer Props
UEFA - Champions League
Futures
Will B. Dortmund advance to the CL knockout stage?
1170. No 1.833

I've been searching through Pinnacle for some decent props they usually make a lot of mistakes for Champions League, this is a really good one 1.83 is great considering Hummels broken foot, Subotic long term, and a few other injuries I think they will struggle to qualify along with Napoli who at the moment look solid, there is talk Rafa Benitez will strengthen more in the winter window we will see but I will definitely be taking this for 2 units.

[Vaughany]

West ham are solid at Upton Park tho, its what saved them last season. They did beat spurs 3-0 away as well so they arent tht bad! Allardyce knows how to keep teams up, and he'll sign at least one striker in Jan

[Giz]

That's a good point, but they desperately need help with scoring I wonder what striker they will get in...can either wait after the window for a small punt to see who they sign. I would favour Hull but only mention West Ham because of there difficulties along with newly promoted teams tend to do well in the first season, Norwich have a top manager along with Cardiff and I have a feeling Wolfswinkel will start scoring soon, Fer looks like one hell of a player and Ruddy could make a strong finish end of the league with Brazil in mind.

[Vaughany]

yeah Norwich like West Ham raise their game at home. Norwich might not be a bad bet tho, they haven't got much depth in their team. Hull are punching above their weight as well at moment, they will start to drop off sooner or later

[plekz]

Futures
Uefa Champions League Outright 13/14: Barcelona 5.23 Pinnacle 1U
Barclays Premier League 13/14 Relegation: Sunderland 2.00 BET365 2U

At the moment I have these futures I like to put forward I will decide on others.

The Champions League seems one sided this year, with the public backing FC Bayern to retain their crown. This has never been done before, acknowledging the talent the German side possess I still think the value and motivation is with Barcelona. I strongly believe this to be the case especially with Neymar along with Messi who after his good old rest will be back to scoring ways...there former coach has had to battle through cancer Tito Vilanova.

Last season the Catalan's got mauled by the Germans this will be a factor, they won't like it one bit and will avenge if these two sides meet, I was pushing Real Madrid mainly because of Carlo Ancelotti who is an fantastic coach however with Sami Khedira out for most of the season and Alonso's inconsistency with fitness gives me no doubt they will struggle this season, there is no way you can win the Champions League without stability through the middle, Paris Saint Germain excite me with 15.00 odds its worth a punt, Laurent Blanc is an upcoming talented coach who I thought would takeover from Alex Ferguson, They have spent a lot of money on their defence and with Cavani and Zlatan they have the fire power too, however they do not have a world class holding midfielder...only three recognisable Motta, Verratti, Matuidi who are good in there own right but not good enough to win it, definatly worth monitoring and backing them to reach the Semis at least.

Messi, Xavi, Fabregas, Valdes, Piqué, Alba, Tello, Dos Santos,Affelay & Alves that's Barcelona's current injury list.

And why you are a JOKE talking about stability when half their team is on injury call, moron.

[Giz]

yeah Norwich like West Ham raise their game at home. Norwich might not be a bad bet tho, they haven't got much depth in their team. Hull are punching above their weight as well at moment, they will start to drop off sooner or later

Yeah Hull could start to dip in form squads decent and usually when newly promoted teams start well they stay up, but I do like Hull to get relegated, Stoke is another one but Mark Hughes won't let that happen he doesn't want that on his C.V, hard to figure out how Stoke would go down with Begovic in net also.

[Giz]

Messi, Xavi, Fabregas, Valdes, Piqué, Alba, Tello, Dos Santos,Affelay & Alves that's Barcelona's current injury list.

And why you are a JOKE talking about stability when half their team is on injury call, moron.

You've clearly ignored to realise Barcelona have near enough qualified and knockout stages start in over 4 months, knowing this the injuries you've mentioned are irrelevant, more importance would be placed on potential injuries...Messi, Xavi, Fabregas, Valdes, Pique will be back for the Champions League that's all that matters.

Another point, there's no reason to curse. Thread title outlines views & opinions you clearly didn't like mine which is fine debates are welcome along with free speech and acceptance of one another's opinion.

[plekz]

What you however don't seem to get is that this is Messi's second injury so far this season alone, at this point everything rests upon Neymaar to carry them through La Liga and he'll be playing every single game until Messi is back because they can't afford to lose any league games since Real Madrid and Atletico are extremely strong this season aswell.

Meaning that as it is all those on injury call are pushing themselves to make it back as fast as possible, meaning likelyhood of them reinjuring themselves is not that unlikely. With 10 people on injury call currently Barcelona is far from any 'stable' team.

[BigBurk]

Man, this forum can't keep a decent discussion for a whole page before people start trippin and call each other morons out of the blue.

It's sad, seriously.

[plekz]

No harm in calling a spade a spade, when the logic takes a giant leap into outerspace before you are even through a paragraph. Especially when the same kid has taken bath's repeatedly and should really just take a back seat at this point and observe for a while.

[Giz]

What you however don't seem to get is that this is Messi's second injury so far this season alone, at this point everything rests upon Neymaar to carry them through La Liga and he'll be playing every single game until Messi is back because they can't afford to lose any league games since Real Madrid and Atletico are extremely strong this season aswell.

Meaning that as it is all those on injury call are pushing themselves to make it back as fast as possible, meaning likelyhood of them reinjuring themselves is not that unlikely. With 10 people on injury call currently Barcelona is far from any 'stable' team.

Hey you can say the same thing about Real Madrid then whos left? Bayern are favourites but you really see them winning back to back Champions league for the first time ever? 3.5 is not good value either, who else to win what is your opinion?

[plekz]

In the finals against Bayern? Juventus doesn't seem that unlikely depending on if they keep current form going, they had some trouble finding their footing early on both domesticly and in CL but seem to have gotten plenty of ground under their feet now and are off to the races.

Think PSG could reach the semi stages, Chelsea thus far have been very strong in CL but a bit allover the shop domesticly, Real Madrid will be undone by their defense.

As jokers in the deck i'll pick Atletico & Man City, Kompany should be back for them just before x-mas and he's really the only reason they are slumpin it a bit domesticly, Silva should be back before x-mas aswell.

[Vaughany]

Sadly there is no way Juve are winning. We will be lucky to reach the quarters. Atletico are a seriously solid outsider to reach the final. Sometimes you do get a couple of surprises like when Porto met Monaco in Final.

[plekz]

What do you think will undo your chances Vaugh?

[Giz]

I agree with Juventus to a certain extent, if and if only they qualify through the group stages I like them as an outsider to be honest if they reach the quarters no one wants to play them over two legs, they are a well organised team that can play all kind of different strategies which past winners have had this ability.

[Vaughany]

What do you think will undo your chances Vaugh?

A combination of a few things really. There is nothing major, like I cant say it's because our defence is shitty, or our Coach is shitty or anything. But all the small things added up make me feel that I'd be very surprised if we reach the Semis.

Firstly, our away record in CL hasnt been good enough for ages...we've only won 4 out of last 17 away games, and two of those wins were against Celtic and Maccabi Haifa. The only impressive one was a 2-0 win at Real Madrid back in 2008. Over past 7 years or so whilst on travels we've only got draws against sides like Copenhagen, Nordsjaelland, BATE, Petrzalka, and Zenit, and lost away games to Werder Bremen and Bordeaux. We've never beaten a British team away from home - losing 7 and drawing just 1 so we are always doomed when we get an English side like Chelsea, Arsenal, or Man U! On the plus side, we have created a fortress at the new Juve Arena so if we can scrape draws away and score a goal then we may have a chance.

Limited options up front and occasional erratic defending is another concern. Chiellini has been immense over last couple seasons and been a critical player, but this season he has been poor at times and cost us in a couple of games. Maybe he can get his form back but it's not easy in CL where refs are different to in Serie A and where you are encountering different styles of play. There is a lot of reliance on Tevez up front...Llorente, Giovinco, Quagliarella are all decent players who I like but they aren't world class and not game changers. We also lack quality wingers, Pepe hasnt even played a game yet due to injury, and we dont have a Robben or Ribery that can dominate teams down a flank.

It's also not easy fighting for the League Title (going for a third straight which is a big deal) and competing for CL at same time - you need depth in quality and we don't quite have that yet. Only have to see how we have struggled at times without Lichsteiner at RWB. Teams like PSG and Bayern (to a certain extent given Dortmund's injury issues and recent bad results) can take more chances in league with resting players as they dont have likes of Inter, Roma, Napoli, Fiorentina challenging them for the title. Likes of Monaco, Lille, Marseille, and Lyon are not near the level of PSG - PSG will probably have a 10+ point advantage by Feb so could rest key players as the quarters/semis come around in CL. And Bayern could also have a big lead by then.

The only significant aspect this year that may give teams like Juve a chance of winning (and level the playing field to a certain extent) is that I dont believe that any side is particularly solid defensively. Real Madrid's defense is a joke at times, Barca's isnt much better, Bayern aren't looking as strong defensively as last season - players like Dante, Boateng, Van Buyten were IMO playing above themselves last season - momentum played a big part - and this season it's become apparent at times that they aren't that robust (particularly referring to home game against Hertha and away at Freiburg). Dortmund have got big problems with injuries at the back and hadn't been keeping many clean-sheets anyway. Man Utd's defence is not what it once was - Rio, Evra and Vidic are aging, and likes of Smalling, Rafael, Evans, and Jones are not top class players. We've seen Man City's frailities at the back on countless occasions this season, especially away from home, and somewhat injury prone Kompany is absolutely vital for them. It's another reason why I wouldnt be surprised to see a side like Atletico get far as I dont think they are that inferior defensively in comparison to the other BIG sides this season.

[vasilli07]

Fulham could be another team in the mix for relegation. Their defence is very poor, just can't keep a clean sheet to save their lives. Martin Jol has been on brink of sacking for some time.

Another fav will be Stoke. Change of manager didn't change too much in their style of play, still 1 of the most boring team in the league beside my beloved Spurs. The lack of creative players in their team certainly don't help. I'm not too sure they have enough goals in this team.

[Giz]

Chaps, what's your thoughts on the games tomorrow?

[Giz]

2 Units
England - Premier League, Soccer
Draw(Newcastle United vs Norwich City) 23-November-2013 7:00 AM PST
1X2 for Game 3.860

Stoke City vs Sunderland: Marko Arnautovic to Score Anytime 3.60 2 Units

Going ahead and putting these two forward for tomorrow, I like Norwich to hold there own away to Newcastle should be a very open game with a few goals, Norwich with 1 goal is most likely maybe a late leveller 2-2, I hate playing obvious draws I tend to opt for "the extra value" when playing draws, Ruddy is an excellent keeper and Chris Hughton has a nice set up in defense, Newcastle will obvious get a goal or 2 just hoping Norwich can snatch a point here.

Taking a risk with the goalscorer prop with Marko playing 80mins vs the U.S earlier in the week, I really like this guy and I've noticed Sunderland's fragility in the fullback areas, this guy can get into some good positions and also hits a mean freekick worth the 2 units with Stoke at home against a mediocre Sunderland team, would of been even more confident in this if Marko was rested for Austria.

[Mase of Base]

Good stuff Giz nice write ups (yours also Vaughany great insight into Juve), this thread looks like it could have some potential.

Simeone has Atleti ticking along brilliantly this season, he's made them incredibly tough to break down and replaced Falcao well. Would be epic to see them win La Liga but in reality that should be a step too far. I can also see them go deep in the champions league they're set up perfectly for cup competition with that sturdy defense and decent enough goal threat. They've already qualified top of their group and although that doesn't mean as much as it used to with the quality sides in the comp now they should avoid the big boys in the round of 16.

Really looking forward to the Merseyside derby tonight both Everton and Liverpool both looking pretty good this season. That Arsenal/Saints match could be a decent battle, under looks decent at a good price (was hoping it might be a touch higher because it's Arsenal at the Emirates after all!).

[Giz]

I agree Atletico Madrid are set up perfectly for cup competition the only stumbling block I see for them is the lack of experience in the latter stages of the Champions League, however winning the Europa League they know how to win so I suppose they are a good punt, I disagree with them not challenging the league I believe they have a chance especially with Koke he looks awesome.

Arsenal and Southampton under sounds about right both have amazing defense's this year and should shut each other out, the Newcastle draw gone down to 3.81 if that means anything, seems Everton have got all 3 points in the Merseyside derby!

[Giz]

2 Units
England - Premier League, Soccer
Draw(Newcastle United vs Norwich City) 23-November-2013 7:00 AM PST
1X2 for Game 3.860

Stoke City vs Sunderland: Marko Arnautovic to Score Anytime 3.60 2 Units

How did he miss that? Marko 10 men and couldn't score, draw looks toast not my day. 0-0-2 -4.00

[Giz]

What a weekend, ain't we thrilled to see domestic football back? Man City demolished Spurs...Man Utd yet again failed to hold a 1 goal lead, Arsenal keep winning, West Ham playing horrible football, and Crystal Palace won!! YES AWAY they really did!

Check back soon English Premier League coming to a theater near you

[Giz]

West Brom vs Aston Villa, tight midlands rivalry.. under the play? I am liking Benteke to come back in scoring ways...will definitely give my review and pick on this later, game is tomorrow evening in England.

Many people favoring Steve Clarkes side at home and why not? Are we not seeing something else here? Its the English Premier League is the value with Aston Villa away? Derbies have shown us anything can happen.

[Vaughany]

1-1 draw I reckon

[Giz]

2 Unit
West Brom 1x2 2.15
West/Villa O2.5 2.01

1 Unit
Morgan Amalfitano to Score Anytime 4.33

Taking these for tonight's game, both teams have solid defense, expect high tempo fast paced midlands battle. West Brom are the better team with better players I edged towards the home win because of Benteke's lack of goals hes not on it at the moment and Villa aren't a threat without him.

Amilfitano gets into good goalscoring position's and with Villa's defense focusing more on West Brom's attacking players I expect him to score worth a punt 1 unit play only.

[Giz]

2-0

[Giz]

2 Unit
West Brom 1x2 2.15
West/Villa O2.5 2.01

1 Unit
Morgan Amalfitano to Score Anytime 4.33

Taking these for tonight's game, both teams have solid defense, expect high tempo fast paced midlands battle. West Brom are the better team with better players I edged towards the home win because of Benteke's lack of goals hes not on it at the moment and Villa aren't a threat without him.

Amilfitano gets into good goalscoring position's and with Villa's defense focusing more on West Brom's attacking players I expect him to score worth a punt 1 unit play only.

1-0-4 -4.98 20%

Really West Brom? 2 goals in 9 mins blew a 2 goal lead.

[Giz]

UEFA - CHAMPIONS LEAGUE SOCCER - TUE 11/26
GAME				HANDICAP	1X2	TOTAL	MORE
Tue 11/26		Zenit St. Petersburg		-0.5 2.000	1.990	Over 2 and 2.5 1.980
09:00 AM		Atletico Madrid		+0.5 1.943	4.280	Under 2 and 2.5 1.943
		Draw			3.510
Tue 11/26		Basel		+0.5 2.030	4.700	Over 2.5 2.050
11:45 AM		Chelsea		-0.5 1.909	1.901	Under 2.5 1.870
		Draw			3.550
Tue 11/26		Arsenal		-1.5 and -2 1.943	1.228	Over 3 2.050
11:45 AM		Marseille		+1.5 and +2 2.000	17.370	Under 3 1.870
		Draw			6.760
Tue 11/26		Borussia Dortmund		-1 2.030	1.613	Over 3 1.980
11:45 AM		Napoli		+1 1.909	5.950	Under 3 1.943
		Draw			4.320
Tue 11/26		Ajax		+1 1.909	6.800	Over 2.5 and 3 1.917
11:45 AM		Barcelona		-1 2.030	1.575	Under 2.5 and 3 2.000
		Draw			4.200
Tue 11/26		Celtic FC		0 and +0.5 1.826	3.110	Over 2 and 2.5 1.943
11:45 AM		AC Milan		0 and -0.5 2.130	2.490	Under 2 and 2.5 1.980
		Draw			3.370
Tue 11/26		Porto		-2 1.917	1.161	Over 3 1.847
11:45 AM		Austria Wien		+2 2.020	23.500	Under 3 2.080
		Draw			8.550
Tue 11/26		Steaua Bucuresti		+0.5 1.909	3.960	Over 2.5 1.971
11:45 AM		FC Schalke 04		-0.5 2.030	2.030	Under 2.5 1.952
		Draw			3.630
Tue 11/26		Home Teams (Tuesday 8 Matches)		-2.5 1.870		Over 22 1.847
09:00 AM		Away Teams (Tuesday 8 Matches)		+2.5 2.080		Under 22 2.080

UEFA - CHAMPIONS LEAGUE SOCCER - WED 11/27
GAME				HANDICAP	1X2	TOTAL	MORE
Wed 11/27		CSKA Moscow		+1 and +1.5 1.901	8.190	Over 2.5 and 3 1.847
09:00 AM		Bayern Munchen		-1 and -1.5 2.040	1.450	Under 2.5 and 3 2.080
		Draw			4.790
Wed 11/27		Anderlecht		+0.5 1.862	3.990	Over 2 and 2.5 1.870
11:45 AM		Benfica		-0.5 2.080	2.080	Under 2 and 2.5 2.050
		Draw			3.460
Wed 11/27		Bayer Leverkusen		0 and -0.5 2.080	2.430	Over 2.5 2.000
11:45 AM		Manchester United		0 and +0.5 1.862	3.180	Under 2.5 1.917
		Draw			3.400
Wed 11/27		Juventus		-2 and -2.5 1.943	1.137	Over 3 1.826
11:45 AM		FC Copenhagen		+2 and +2.5 2.000	28.000	Under 3 2.100
		Draw			9.500
Wed 11/27		Manchester City		-2 1.847	1.167	Over 3 and 3.5 1.917
11:45 AM		Viktoria Plzen		+2 2.100	21.500	Under 3 and 3.5 2.000
		Draw			8.550
Wed 11/27		Paris Saint Germain		-1 and -1.5 1.943	1.394	Over 2.5 and 3 1.962
11:45 AM		Olympiacos		+1 and +1.5 2.000	10.070	Under 2.5 and 3 1.962
		Draw			4.930
Wed 11/27		Real Madrid		-1.5 1.917	1.313	Over 3 and 3.5 1.943
11:45 AM		Galatasaray		+1.5 2.020	11.060	Under 3 and 3.5 1.980
		Draw			5.940
Wed 11/27		Shakhtar Donetsk		-1 2.120	1.641	Over 2.5 1.870
11:45 AM		Real Sociedad		+1 1.833	5.920	Under 2.5 2.050
		Draw			4.130
Wed 11/27		Home Teams (Wednesday 8 Matches)		-6.5 1.833		Over 23.5 1.833
09:00 AM		Away Teams (Wednesday 8 Matches)		+6.5 2.120		Under 23.5 2.090

Champions League tomorrow, current lines above...have the Dortmund not to qualify prop pending, share your thoughts, opinions, even picks for the games tomorrow & Wednesday, will post my reviews later.

[Vaughany]

1-1 draw I reckon

Ah well got the draw right! Only bet betpoints on it tho!

[Giz]

Ah well got the draw right! Only bet betpoints on it tho!

Ya should of live bet draw at half time