NCAA Baseball Picks: Road to Omaha

[EaglesPhan36]

Really interesting for Game 2 Illinois v. Vanderbilt, the Illini are starting closer Tyler Jay unless they change their minds overnight. Vandy with the luxury to counter with Pfeifer and hold Buehler for a Game 3 if needed.

Obviously Illinois in a win or go home is desperate, but likely burning your closer for Game 3 if you make it. They have a lot of depth. Seems more prudent to go with one of your regular guys and if you have to hit the panic button early because they get lit up, then go to Jay. Does not seem like the delay will change their minds. I thought they would play two on Monday, but if Illinois forces Game 3 then they play Tuesday. So I would doubt Illinois rethinks this. Jay is their guy in this spot.

Would lean to the Under 9.5, but again too juicy at -145. Jay has elite power stuff, so it might be intriguing to try Illinois at around +170. Obviously plenty of risk since Jay has started just one game. The big question will probably be how many pitches they let him toss because in the back of their minds if they have a decent lead, they may be thinking about getting him out so they would have him for an inning on Tuesday. If the game is close though and he is pitching well, you have to leave him in right?

Very interesting plot on Tuesday for that game.

Of the other two games, TCU of course interests me the most. Thinking TCU @ -140. Aggies probably would have gone to Vinson to start this 3rd game, but he got crushed in Game 1 in 2.1 IP. Aggies may go with Stubblefield again who pitched well against Cal in returning from a knee injury. TCU has options galore with Traver or Young or a combo of both ready to pitch + a deep, versatile bullpen available.fully available after a gem by Preston Morrison.

Will look for more info on the Aggies starter early tomorrow because I think TCU will get the money push in this one if there is one due to their pitching depth. Hopefully there's one more game of magic for the Frogs!

[Rbyrne]

with Illinois starting their best pitcher, I lean under 9.5, anymore info on vandys starter?

[EaglesPhan36]

Pfeiffer is pretty solid, not elite, but solid. Has good K stuff when he's on, but his ERA just over 4 shows that he can be hit a little bit. He gave up four to Radford in the Regionals in his last start, but had a CG against Alabama I think in the SEC tourney, giving up just one run.

Just not gonna pay -145 for an under. Still considering Illinois ML.

TCU has not announced if its Young or Traver yet, but no matter. Stubblefield is a go for A&M. Gonna look around a little bit more before making any picks.

[Vinnie Paz]

Can't take unders. These games are so sloppy. Wild pitches and errors galore, guys getting hit by pitches. Forget it

[SteveKerrsJunk]

Illinois game 2, Vandy game 3. Going with the Fresh Connor Seabold for CSF against the Ville and of course the Aggies get it done. Great thread Eagles. Gl all!

[EaglesPhan36]

F the Aggies.

[EaglesPhan36]

Monday (June 8th)
TCU @ -135
Illinois @ +165

[Rbyrne]

Totals for the late games are both 7.5, I also lean tcu

[EaglesPhan36]

Not sure how many times this weekend a team I have backed has had the bases loaded and settled for one run or none. My kingdom for that one bit ass hit to put up a crooked number.

[EaglesPhan36]

Pretty sure if Illinois isn't ahead when Jay goes out, Vanderbilt wins.

[EaglesPhan36]

That will probably pretty much sink Illinois.

I go back to that 1st inning again. Bases loaded one out and then get one run. A key hit there probably gets them at least two, maybe more to keep the inning churning and they might be tied or ahead. Instead trailing by one late.

[EaglesPhan36]

Well go TCU, at least end this round on a high note after a pretty crappy weekend on these picks. Gotta refocus for the CWS and do better.

Give Vandy credit, they've got it all and Illinois' best couldn't stop them.

[Rbyrne]

Just cashed the under 9.5 (-135), wasn't easy, Illinois left runners on base all game they couldn't get the big hit, I leaned Illinois ml but couldn't pull the trigger vs vandy whose team is so good all around so pulled the trigger on the under thinking Illinois starter would keep vandys bats in check. The final score was 4-2 vandy. I like tcu ml next

[Rbyrne]

Arizona just drafted Dansby Swanson first overall, he could carry vandy to the college World Series this year, any more info on the pitching match up for tcu and a@m?

[EaglesPhan36]

Par for the course for me picking these this weekend. Illinois loaded them up twice with one out each time and gets a total of one run. Just could not find the big hit all weekend on any picks when they were needed. Hopefully TCU doesn't follow suit. Gotta get the Omafrogs back to the CWS!

[Vegas39]

figure TCU with late inning magic wins it

GL EP

[EaglesPhan36]

Arizona just drafted Dansby Swanson first overall, he could carry vandy to the college World Series this year, any more info on the pitching match up for tcu and a@m?

Stubblefied for A&M. TCU still hasn't tipped their hand whether it's Young or Traver from what I have found. I think Traver. Young has struggled some in the postseason. Regardless, TCU has no shortage of arms who can go into the game if whomever starts struggles early. Stubblefield is a bit of a mystery because he's been out most of the year with a knee injury. Like I said earlier, he pitched well under pressure in a start against Cal in the Regionals, so he likely won't be overmatched here although this is a huge stage for a guy who has a low amount of experience. But he is good from all accounts.

And unfortunately I have a feeling that my stomach will be churning late in this one. TCU never does things easy like winning a blowout. There is bound to be some drama tonight.

[Rbyrne]

Tcu is -155 at my book

[Rbyrne]

Total is 7.5 with the over juiced -130

[EaglesPhan36]

Alex Young for TCU.

[EaglesPhan36]

Masterful job by Young escaping trouble outside of the HR. Can't keep putting himself in trouble though. Very fortunate to be down 1-0. Would not be shocked to see him lifted in the next couple innings depending on how it goes.

[EaglesPhan36]

Bats getting shut down by a lefty again so far. Ugh.

[EaglesPhan36]

Finally some runs! Go Frogs!

[EaglesPhan36]

Gotta give Young lots of credit. He stuck in there and its rolling now.

[Rbyrne]

Terrible start for tcu but they minimized the damage to only one run and finally started to get a few hits in the 5th and 6th after being shut down the first 4 innings, looks like we're on our way to cashing tcu ml, they have a great home crowd tonight

[EaglesPhan36]

I will of course be blaming you for the current state of this game.

[EaglesPhan36]

Endless orgasms & moonshine. Kid runs through a stop sign and somehow they finally get the luck that eluded them for six innings. OMAFROGS!

[Vegas39]

Congrats EP

[EaglesPhan36]

Regionals Record: 16-14 [+4.38]
Regionals Futures: 1-1 [+1.10]
Super Regionals: 5-7 [-1.50]
Well not a great round, but ended on a high note with my Frogs winning again in crazy ass fashion. Still up for the tournament. This might be one of the best CWS fields I have seen in a while. No easy outs anywhere. Will be looking over futures prices this week as they usually present a good investment at this stage. Would say on 1st glance that Miami or Florida would seem to have a great shot on their side with a bit weaker field. The other bracket is just f-ing nuts with talent. LSU. TCU. Vanderbilt. Fullerton State. Any one of those teams could get to the Championship series.

For anyone who doesn't know, the CWS is broken into two four team brackets and continues double elimination style. Last team standing from each bracket then plays in a best of three Championship Series.

Will have to find my thread from last year, but remember since they moved this tournament from the old Rosenblatt Stadium to TD Ameritrade, the CWS has been pretty under friendly. Will post up some of the research numbers during the week. First games are Saturday.

Virginia-Arkansas
Miami-Florida
----------
LSU-TCU
Vanderbilt-Fullerton State

[Rbyrne]

Tigers will crush tcu

[EaglesPhan36]

Crush I assume is at least four runs? Gimme +4 for whatever amount of money you want.

[Rbyrne]

cashed tcu ml last night and a parlay I had them with under 7 in the white sox/Astros game. crazy end to the game, tcu wins on an error by a@ms third baseman, had the runner dead at home after running the stop sign and threw it in the dirt and catcher couldn't pick it. I couldn't believe he tried going home on that play, a good throw and he's easily out at home

[Rbyrne]

Lucky to cash tcu after their epic meltdown in the 9th inning, up 4-2 they were lucky to get out of that inning with the game tied.

[EaglesPhan36]

DSI offering CWS futures props.


Hopefully they are branching all the way out with totals too instead of just MLs

[EaglesPhan36]

TD Ameritrade TOTALS Stats
Only 20 of 45 games over the four College World Series held at TD Ameritrade have hit for nine or more runs. Only 12 have hit for DOUBLE DIGITS in all. Last year though there were none and of the three double digit games, two came in the 2nd round & the other in the Championship Series. So when you see a double digit total, do you due diligence, but this is very much a pitcher's park still.

Your first two totals of this year's CWS are 9 for UVA-Arkansas and 10.5 for FLA-Miami. Connor Jones v. Trey Killian in the 1st one, Logan Shore v. Andrew Suarez in the 2nd. UVA has played to totals of nine or under in 4/5 NCAA games. Arkansas had three big scoring games in double digits and three low scoring games in their six NCAA games.

Florida has been so explosive on offense that 4/5 games have gone into double digits in the NCAAs. Miami had three double digit games out of six so far in the NCAAs. Be back with some picks a bit later, including futures. These get started tomorrow in Omaha!