Keel's 2015 NFL Parlay System

[keel44]

I am back again using my money management strategy. I am very happy with what it has done for me. Here is how it will all go down.

All of my parlays will be pay out no less than 2.24 to 1.

Parlay A: Risk 1 to win 2.24
Parlay B: Risk 2.24 to win 5.02
Parlay C: Risk 7.26 to win 16.26 ..... (23.52 to 1) total payout


*Bets start at "A" and if I win, they move along to "B" and "C"
*The WIN amount ONLY from bet "A" goes to bet "B"
*Only the losses from bet "A" gets re-figured into the profit target
*You take the profit target and divide by 23.52 to get your bet "A" risk amount
*A unit is 2% of total bankroll
*I will not be buying points this year
*All of my lines will be from www.sportsbook.ag

The whole idea of this strategy is to fully take advantage of a bettor getting hot. The strategy allows a LOT of time for the bettor to get hot. Bets rise very slowly after losses but rise very quickly after wins. This is a "chase" and a "press" system all in one.

________________________________________ ________
Here are my references/results:

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/baseball-betting/3079321-keels-mlb-parlay-system.html

Keel's NBA Parlay System

Keel's Football Parlay System

Keel's Baseball Action starting on post #252

http://keel44.mysbrforum.com/spreadsheet/

MLB 2014 - 23-78 (22.77%) avg odds 325 +34.79 units
NFL 2014 - 12-28 (30%) avg odds 230 +10 units
NBA 2014/15 - 53-130 (28.96%) avg odds 255 +22.13 units
MLB 2015 - 36-140 (20.45%) avg odds 290 +15.20 units

+82.12 units overall (Exactly 500 plays) ALL documented on this website
* A unit is 2% of a total bankroll

The average risk amount per play is 1.15 units overall in all seasons. Not bad for a "chase" system.

[keel44]

I am gonna go ahead and start right away in the preseason. I will go for a profit target of 10 units

10 divide by 23.25 = 0.42 unit will be the starting wager amount



Preseason week 3

Parlay 01-A: Jaguars -2 with Chiefs -6 (0.42 to win 1.15)

[keel44]

Preseason week 3

Parlay 01-A: Jaguars -2 with Chiefs -6 (0.42 to win 1.15)

How the Jaguars pissed it away, reminds me what can happen when you bet football.

[keel44]

Preseason week 3

Parlay 01-A: Jaguars -2 with Chiefs -6 (0.42 to win 1.15)
Parlay 02-A: Giants 1st H ML with Eagles 1st H -4.5 (0.44 to win 1.07)

0.42 + 10 = 10.42 divide by 23.52 = 0.44 (our next wager amount)

[keel44]

Preseason week 3

Parlay 01-A: Jaguars -2 with Chiefs -6 (0.42 to win 1.15)
Parlay 02-A: Giants 1st H ML with Eagles 1st H -4.5 (0.44 to win 1.07)

[fitguy67]

I will give a bit of a breakdown of this money management strategy:

MLB 2014 - 23-78 (22.77%) avg odds 325 +34.79 units
NFL 2014 - 12-28 (30%) avg odds 230 +10 units
NBA 2014/15 - 53-130 (28.96%) avg odds 255 +22.13 units
MLB 2015 - 36-140 (20.45%) avg odds 290 +15.20 units

+82.12 units overall (Exactly 500 plays) ALL documented on this website
* A unit is 2% of a total bankroll

The average risk amount per play is 1.15 units overall in all seasons. Not bad for a "chase" system.

keel, this is imported from your mlb thread just completed...

a question about the bold-faced sentence...does this average include just the A's or the (A+B+C)'s...I suspect it's just the A's as the cool angle of all of this is that the B&C "plays" are fully pre-financed free-rolls (but one of 'em has to hit, of course, before the 'A' war-chest has been depleted...)
__________
big congrats to you and the system you created ultimately prevailing despite a long character-building drought in MLB

[keel44]

Oh no fitguy67. That is the average for ALL of the plays A-B-C. A bets are usually way less than 1 unit. B bets are few and far between and those are probably 1.5 units on average. C bets are rare and they are way up there, not enough to pull the average.

[fitguy67]

thanks, did seem too high for the A's only...but thought the large B's and monstrous C's might pull avg up more than that (and also reckoned that A's fatten up quite a bit once they get numbered into the 50s and beyond)...

after some of those long MLB droughts and the huge bet-sizes on the Bs and Cs created by them...to have an average risk of just about 1 unit on something with a damn-near guaranteed "happy ending" to those with the cojones to "trust and obey" the sysetm...very impressive indeed

good luck with this year's NFL project

[keel44]

Preseason Week 4

Parlay 03-A: Bucs +3.5 with Rams -2.5 (0.46 to win 1.18)

[keel44]

Preseason Week 4

Parlay 03-A: Bucs +3.5 with Rams -2.5 (0.46 to win 1.18)

I was hoping for a preseason win.....but no

[keel44]

Week 1

Parlay 04-A: Raiders +3.5 with Jaguars +3.5 (0.48 to win 1.23)
Parlay 05-A: Packers UNDER 50 with Eagles OVER 56.5 (0.48 to win 1.25)

[keel44]

That will be all the plays for me this week. Good luck to one and all.

[keel44]

Week 1

Parlay 04-A: Raiders +3.5 with Jaguars +3.5 (0.48 to win 1.23)
Parlay 05-A: Packers UNDER 50 with Eagles OVER 56.5 (0.48 to win 1.25)

[keel44]

Week 2

Parlay 06-A: Dolphins -6.5 with Eagles OVER 55.5 (0.52 to win 1.35)
Parlay 07-A: Redskins +4 with Titans -1.5 (0.52 to win 1.34)

[Dano85]

HEy sent you a couple of PMs if you dont mind answering them thanks

[keel44]

Week 2

Parlay 06-A: Dolphins -6.5 with Eagles OVER 55.5 (0.52 to win 1.35)
Parlay 07-A: Redskins +4 with Titans -1.5 (0.52 to win 1.34)

[keel44]

Week 3

Parlay 08-A: Seahawks -15 with Raiders +3.5 (0.56 to win 1.44)

[keel44]

Good luck to everyone today. I will probably have a play on the night game.

[keel44]

Week 3

Parlay 08-A: Seahawks -15 with Raiders +3.5 (0.56 to win 1.44)
Parlay 09-A: Saints +10 with Broncos -3 (0.56 to win 1.40)



* I just got a -3 for Denver, so I will strike now. I still may be back later for the night game.

[keel44]

Week 4

Parlay 08-B: Ravens -2.5 with Cardinals -6.5 (1.44 to win 3.5)



* I saw these lines and I couldn't pass them up for week 4. I fully expect these lines to move so I will certainly jump all over this now.

[keel44]

Week 3

Parlay 08-A: Seahawks -15 with Raiders +3.5 (0.56 to win 1.44)
Parlay 09-A: Saints +10 with Broncos -3 (0.56 to win 1.40)

[keel44]

Week 4

Parlay 08-B: Ravens -2.5 with Cardinals -6.5 (1.44 to win 3.5)



* I saw these lines and I couldn't pass them up for week 4. I fully expect these lines to move so I will certainly jump all over this now.

[keel44]

I am going to see what happens with that Thursday game. If I lose, then I probably will have another play.

[keel44]

Week 4

Parlay 08-B: Ravens -2.5 with Cardinals -6.5 (1.44 to win 3.5)

[keel44]

Week 5

Parlay 09-B: Redskins +7.5 with Bills -2.5 (1.4 to win 3.6)

[keel44]

Week 5

Parlay 09-B: Redskins +7.5 with Bills -2.5 (1.4 to win 3.6)

Kind of a tough loss here...

[keel44]

Week 6

Parlay 10-A: 49ers ml with Cardinals ml (0.56 to win 1.29)
Parlay 11-A: Vikings ml with Dolphins ml (0.56 to win 1.26)

[SBRMAN23]

Really like both GL

[keel44]

Week 6

Parlay 10-A: 49ers ml with Cardinals ml (0.56 to win 1.29)
Parlay 11-A: Vikings ml with Dolphins ml (0.56 to win 1.26)

[keel44]

Week 7

Parlay 11-B: Jets +9 with Redskins -3.5 (1.26 to win 3.25)

[fitguy67]

good luck on this first of hopefully two successful BC "free throws"...we're due for a relatively quick ABC hit after the very long (aka. "character-building") but ultimately successful MLB campaign we just endured/enjoyed with this method

[oe473034]

4 Game Parlay using spread
BILLS -7
DOLPHINS -4
BUCCANEERS +3
COWBOYS +3


4 Game Parlay using Money line
BILLS
DOLPHINS
BUCCANEERS
COWBOYS

[keel44]

Week 7

Parlay 11-B: Jets +9 with Redskins -3.5 (1.26 to win 3.25)
Parlay 12-A: Panthers -3 with Cardinals -9 (0.59 to win 1.53)

Slow start by the skins ruined me.

* I will be making more plays. I feel more volume might result in a quicker resolution. I maybe forcing a bit here, but I added a play on the prime time games.

[keel44]

Week 7

Parlay 11-B: Jets +9 with Redskins -3.5 (1.26 to win 3.25)
Parlay 12-A: Panthers -3 with Cardinals -9 (0.59 to win 1.53)

Very tough pills to swallow this week....

[keel44]

Here is the link to this year's NBA thread.

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/nba-basketball-betting/3167247-keels-nba-parlay-system-ii.html#post24715987