[on3]

just wanted to get an early thread going for the season. last year we finished at:

final tally:

system record: 17-1
mod system record: 7-1
units: +8.5


the system kicks in week 4 at the earliest. the middle strategy can be played from week 1. i have also been dabbling in the middle strategy during preseason and so far it has been profitable. middle strategy is simple:

if the posted spread or total can be middled at halftime by 10 or more points, fade the middle.

[on3]

example for the middle system:

week 1: GB @ SEA, o/u 44.5, SEA -5.5
hypothetical halftime score: GB 20 SEA 14
hypothetical 2h line: o/u 21.5, SEA -1

this brings the full game's new line to: o/u 55.5, GB -5
total calc: 55.5 - 44.5 = 11 point middle
spread calc: +5.5 + 5 = 10.5 middle
bets would be: play OVER 21.5 and GB +1 -- you are betting that the game will not be middled

[analyzer]

Checking in on3 - looking forward to it!

[Want2Win]

example for the middle system:

week 1: GB @ SEA, o/u 44.5, SEA -5.5
hypothetical halftime score: GB 20 SEA 14
hypothetical 2h line: o/u 21.5, SEA -1

this brings the full game's new line to: o/u 55.5, GB -5
total calc: 55.5 - 44.5 = 11 point middle
spread calc: +5.5 + 5 = 10.5 middle
bets would be: play OVER 21.5 and GB +1 -- you are betting that the game will not be middled

Maybe I am dense On3, but I don't understand your middle. How did you get the games new line of GB -5 if Seattle started off as -5.5? And I don't understand how you got the new total.

If you get the time, please explain.

thanks for everything!

[on3]

Maybe I am dense On3, but I don't understand your middle. How did you get the games new line of GB -5 if Seattle started off as -5.5? And I don't understand how you got the new total.

If you get the time, please explain.

thanks for everything!

in the hypothetical situation, GB started off the game at +5.5 and is now winning by 6. the hypothetical 2h line is SEA -1, which makes GB expected to win by 5. +5.5 to start, now -5 to win...thats a 10.5 point middle.

[hagball52]

Here for now.

[swngus44]

Very interesting threaf.

[tompson]

Thanks On3 sadly I will be asleep in the UK for most of the half times but might look at this on the early k.o.

[Want2Win]

Thanks On3!

[BigdaddyQH]

Interesting, but way off. First, if Seattle is -5 1/2, then they will be somewheres between -2 or -3 on the 2nd half. The first half score rarely affects the 2nd half number. Also, the entire logic behind this theory is totally flawed. The fact that he claims that his system finished at 17-1 for a total unit win of 8.5 says it all. I have seen this theory before, and basically it is a bunch of double talk that simply is not possible.

[on3]

Interesting, but way off. First, if Seattle is -5 1/2, then they will be somewheres between -2 or -3 on the 2nd half. The first half score rarely affects the 2nd half number. Also, the entire logic behind this theory is totally flawed. The fact that he claims that his system finished at 17-1 for a total unit win of 8.5 says it all. I have seen this theory before, and basically it is a bunch of double talk that simply is not possible.

apparently the word 'hypothetical' doesnt mean what you think it means. next, the 17-1 record is the record for the system, not the halftime betting strategy. also, 17 wins at -110 = +17 units, 1 loss on a 3 chase at -110 = -8.26 units. +17 - 8.26 = +8.74 units. so i guess you caught me there, under reporting unit totals.

good troll though.

[jfunk2800]

for those that are fans of 'no capping' systems, here is one that yields +EV year after year and went 64-32 last year. when only playing home teams, the ROI is over 10%:

round robin 2-team tease any and all teams that fall within +1.5 to +2.5 dogs or -7.5 to -8.5 faves. for example, week 1 plays would be PHI (-7.5), DET (-.7.5), KC (+2), TB (+2), ARI (+2.5), OAK (+1.5). for week 1, that is 15 bets total when you round robin 2-team them.

A B C D

Through 3 & 7	889-316-7	53.8	2.71%
Home and through 3 & 7	500-152-5	57.9	10.57%

**the records are for individual teams, you must square the win percentage to get the success rate shown in column C.

I found this in a thread from a few years ago (2012). Did you use this method at all last year? If so, what were the results?

[BigdaddyQH]

apparently the word 'hypothetical' doesnt mean what you think it means. next, the 17-1 record is the record for the system, not the halftime betting strategy. also, 17 wins at -110 = +17 units, 1 loss on a 3 chase at -110 = -8.26 units. +17 - 8.26 = +8.74 units. so i guess you caught me there, under reporting unit totals.

good troll though.

Troll this. Your system is a total fake. You do not even wager this way. This is just another way that you dumb arses in here who cannot pick a winner to save your life try to save face. You have tried posting this in other forums and got laughed out of them. Why try here? If you idiots would spend half of the time that you waste on this phony system trying to figure out which team has the best chance of winning, you would be much better off. Your math is flawed and a lie. What you conviently forget to mention is the fact that you would not have any money left after a loss. Don't mess with me boy. I have forgotten more of these B.S. systems than you will ever know.

[on3]

I found this in a thread from a few years ago (2012). Did you use this method at all last year? If so, what were the results?

i did not track the results last year for the teasers.

[on3]

Troll this. Your system is a total fake. You do not even wager this way. This is just another way that you dumb arses in here who cannot pick a winner to save your life try to save face. You have tried posting this in other forums and got laughed out of them. Why try here? If you idiots would spend half of the time that you waste on this phony system trying to figure out which team has the best chance of winning, you would be much better off. Your math is flawed and a lie. What you conviently forget to mention is the fact that you would not have any money left after a loss. Don't mess with me boy. I have forgotten more of these B.S. systems than you will ever know.

i look forward to hearing from you throughout the season. BOL.

[ken23lau]

Troll this. Your system is a total fake. You do not even wager this way. This is just another way that you dumb arses in here who cannot pick a winner to save your life try to save face. You have tried posting this in other forums and got laughed out of them. Why try here? If you idiots would spend half of the time that you waste on this phony system trying to figure out which team has the best chance of winning, you would be much better off. Your math is flawed and a lie. What you conviently forget to mention is the fact that you would not have any money left after a loss. Don't mess with me boy. I have forgotten more of these B.S. systems than you will ever know.

The tone here makes me believe that he has recently lost his entire bankroll

[on3]

using tonight as an example:
Game line: PHI -4, o/u 48
Halftime PHI 17 PIT 0
Halftime line PIT -.5, o/u 20.5
Adjusted line PHI -16.5, o/u 37.5
If this was the regular season, we would play PHI +.5 and the UNDER 20.5.

[on3]

FYI, the JM system he's emailing about for the first week of the season is:

Chase the opponent of the reigning superbowl champs ATS for the first three games. So week 1 would be GB +6.

[imotiv8]

Nice!

[md3324]

I still don't understand the halftime middling system. Does anyone know of there's a bet to make tonight?

[on3]

no 2h plays tonight, back on sunday

[reddevils64]

Can anyone tell me where I can find the JM NFL system?

[analyzer]

Hope you're having a great time in Vegas on3! Looking for to 2H plays today.

[on3]

So far buffalo +5

[on3]

Sorry, buf +6

[on3]

Min pk

[on3]

Min now +1.5

[on3]

Kc under 21.5

[on3]

Pit pk

[on3]

Cin +1.5

[on3]

Jax +7.5

[on3]

no play for the NYG/Det game

[delbiand]

WEEK_2

SD +5

[on3]

^^ correct, (B) bet on SD +5 on the 'fade the previous champ system'

[on3]

i wont be around for halftimes today, but seeing how the season is off to a slow start that might not be a bad thing