TechnicalTrader's NBA O/U Thread

[TechnicalTrader]

I've remodeled a "remodeled MLB 1st inning unders system" which is currently successful in the NHL, for the NBA.

This is the NHL thread I just started http://www.sportsbookreview.com/foru...-u-thread.html and for those interested, this is the MLB thread http://www.sportsbookreview.com/foru...ing-plays.html

Rather than focusing on first quarters, I will be playing the entire game O/U and WILL ONLY play this system in January and February. Don't ask why...

Here are some past results.

2012 to date:
January: 109-64-6 63%
February: 53-27 66.2%
Jan 1st TD: 22-12

The system is up around 7.8 units so far and I expect another 12-18 units. I will not be betting in unit size and as usual will be wagering a set bankroll %. My BR will be recalculated every morning and %'s will be calculated in real time. For thsoe who would like to tail, just convert % in to units. My max BR% per bet will me around 6% of BR.

In order to backtest and select picks,m I use SDQL. So I will post lines shortly after killersports updates the current lines.

Here are the YTD UNDER results:

Date	Team	Opp	Site	Final	Line	Total	o/U
Jan 01, 2017	Heat	Pistons	home	98-107	6.5	198.5	O
Jan 02, 2017	Nets	Jazz	home	89-101	6.5	204	U
Jan 04, 2017	Cavaliers	Bulls	home	94-106	-3	203.5	U
Jan 04, 2017	Clippers	Grizzlies	home	115-106	-1	198.5	O
Jan 04, 2017	Kings	Heat	home	102-107	-7.5	203	O
Jan 05, 2017	Pelicans	Hawks	home	94-99	-2	207.5	U
Jan 05, 2017	Raptors	Jazz	home	101-93	-6	198	U
Jan 07, 2017	Mavericks	Hawks	home	82-97	2.5	197	U
Jan 07, 2017	Timberwolves	Jazz	home	92-94	3	194	U
Jan 08, 2017	Grizzlies	Jazz	home	88-79	-3	187	U
Jan 09, 2017	Bulls	Thunder	home	94-109	1	208	U
Jan 10, 2017	Spurs	Bucks	home	107-109	-9.5	203.5	O
Jan 10, 2017	Wizards	Bulls	home	101-99	-10.5	203.5	U
Jan 11, 2017	Thunder	Grizzlies	home	103-95	-5	202	U
Jan 12, 2017	Knicks	Bulls	home	104-89	-3.5	207	U
Jan 13, 2017	Jazz	Pistons	home	110-77	-11	192	U
Jan 13, 2017	Timberwolves	Thunder	home	96-86	2	208	U
Jan 14, 2017	Wizards	Seventysixers	home	109-93	-10	208	U
Jan 15, 2017	Grizzlies	Bulls	home	104-108	-8	193.5	O
Jan 15, 2017	Hawks	Bucks	home	111-98	-4	207	O
Jan 15, 2017	Mavericks	Timberwolves	home	98-87	-1	196.5	U
Jan 16, 2017	Suns	Jazz	home	101-106	6	204	O
Jan 17, 2017	Spurs	Timberwolves	home	122-114	-11.5	202	O
Jan 18, 2017	Pistons	Hawks	home	118-95	1.5	202	O
Jan 19, 2017	Clippers	Timberwolves	home	101-104	1	205.5	U
Jan 19, 2017	Heat	Mavericks	home	99-95	-2.5	198	U
Jan 20, 2017	Grizzlies	Kings	home	107-91	-8	199.5	U
Jan 20, 2017	Mavericks	Jazz	home	107-112	5.5	188	O
Jan 20, 2017	Seventysixers	Trailblazers	home	93-92	1.5	208	U
Jan 24, 2017	Magic	Bulls	home	92-100	3	204.5	U
Jan 24, 2017	Raptors	Spurs	home	106-108	0	207.5	O
Jan 25, 2017	Mavericks	Knicks	home	103-95	-3.5	201	U
Jan 26, 2017	Jazz	Lakers	home	96-88	-13	202	U
Jan 26, 2017	Thunder	Mavericks	home	109-98	-9	198	O

As you can see, I will expect about 1-3 plays a day.

Bankroll day 1: $1000.00
Record: 0-0
Total Profit: 00.00%
Bankroll day 1: $1000.00

Hit rate: 00.00%

[juicername]

Excellent news! Can't wait for the first round of plays.

[TechnicalTrader]

Only looking at unders today, risking 1.5% per bet:

	1/27/17 10:41am	$15.00	$14.29	Pending	1/27/17 8:05pm Reduced Basketball 867 San Antonio Spurs/New Orleans Pelicans Under 210 -105*
	1/27/17 10:40am	$15.00	$14.71	Pending	1/27/17 7:35pm Reduced Basketball 859 Orlando Magic/Boston Celtics Under 214 -102*
	1/27/17 10:37am	$15.00	$14.56	Pending	1/27/17 7:35pm Reduced Basketball 857 Brooklyn Nets/Cleveland Cavaliers Under 225½ -103*
	1/27/17 10:37am	$15.00	$14.71	Pending	1/27/17 10:05pm Reduced Basketball 869 Memphis Grizzlies/Portland Trail Blazers Under 207 -102*

[TechnicalTrader]

Adding a second Memphis/Portland under bet. Total wager there is 3%

1/27/17 10:43am

$15.00

$14.71

Pending

1/27/17 10:05pm Reduced Basketball 869 Memphis Grizzlies/Portland Trail Blazers Under 207 -102*

The signals I am getting are too strong for me to resist.

[juicername]

Let's do it! Thanks TT.

[TechnicalTrader]

Not the best possible start but will bounce back soon. Today's picks:

	1/28/17 1:25pm	$18.50	$15.81	Pending	1/28/17 7:05pm NBA Basketball 501 Sacramento Kings/Charlotte Hornets Under 206½ -117*
	1/28/17 1:25pm	$37.00	$35.24	Pending	1/28/17 9:05pm Reduced Basketball 513 Memphis Grizzlies/Utah Jazz Under 188½ -105*
	1/28/17 1:24pm	$18.50	$14.80	Pending	1/28/17 8:35pm NBA Basketball 507 Los Angeles Clippers/Golden State Warriors Under 223 -125*

[TechnicalTrader]

Wow, getting hit hard... Bounce back time... here we go! Will update stats tomorrow:

1/29/17 11:43am

$16.85

$14.28

Pending

1/29/17 6:05pm NBA Basketball 837 Orlando Magic/Toronto Raptors Under 210 -118*

1/29/17 11:42am

$16.85

$16.05

Pending

1/29/17 3:05pm Reduced Basketball 831 New York Knicks/Atlanta Hawks Under 210 -105*

1/29/17 11:34am

$33.70

$31.20

Pending

1/29/17 7:05pm Reduced Basketball 841 Dallas Mavericks/San Antonio Spurs Under 196½ -108*

	1/29/17 11:32am	$16.85	$15.46	Pending	1/29/17 3:35pm Reduced Basketball 833 Oklahoma City Thunder/Cleveland Cavaliers Under 220 -109*
	1/29/17 11:32am	$16.85	$16.68	Pending	1/29/17 6:05pm Reduced Basketball 835 Washington Wizards/New Orleans Pelicans Under 218½ -101*

[juicername]

NBA so high-scoring this season, tough to hit an under when every single game on the board goes over . Hopefully it equals out today, BOL!

[TechnicalTrader]

The overs are only hitting at a rate of 51.8% in December and January and 52.2% this season but at an extreme 62.2% over the last seven days. A simple mini cycle... it will balance itself at.

[oilcountry99]

5dimes links don't show up on my mobile. Well they show up but I can't scroll over to see the complete selection. Not sure if anyone else has this issue.

[TechnicalTrader]

5dimes links don't show up on my mobile. Well they show up but I can't scroll over to see the complete selection. Not sure if anyone else has this issue.

I have access to NBA and NBA reduced lines on my Samsung. I live overseas, so it might be a North American issue...

[juicername]

I think he means here in the thread. It's a formatting issue on the phone, the sideway scroll does not work as it does on the desktop version so they get cut off instead.

1/29/17 6:05pm NBA Basketball 837 Orlando Magic/Toronto Raptors Under 210 -118*

1/29/17 3:05pm Reduced Basketball 831 New York Knicks/Atlanta Hawks Under 210 -105*

1/29/17 7:05pm Reduced Basketball 841 Dallas Mavericks/San Antonio Spurs Under 196½ -108*

1/29/17 3:35pm Reduced Basketball 833 Oklahoma City Thunder/Cleveland Cavaliers Under 220 -109*

1/29/17 6:05pm Reduced Basketball 835 Washington Wizards/New Orleans Pelicans Under 218½ -101*

That should be visible on the phone too.

[oilcountry99]

Juicer...you got it!

[TechnicalTrader]

I think he means here in the thread. It's a formatting issue on the phone, the sideway scroll does not work as it does on the desktop version so they get cut off instead.

1/29/17 6:05pm NBA Basketball 837 Orlando Magic/Toronto Raptors Under 210 -118*

1/29/17 3:05pm Reduced Basketball 831 New York Knicks/Atlanta Hawks Under 210 -105*

1/29/17 7:05pm Reduced Basketball 841 Dallas Mavericks/San Antonio Spurs Under 196½ -108*

1/29/17 3:35pm Reduced Basketball 833 Oklahoma City Thunder/Cleveland Cavaliers Under 220 -109*

1/29/17 6:05pm Reduced Basketball 835 Washington Wizards/New Orleans Pelicans Under 218½ -101*

That should be visible on the phone too.

Thanks!

[juicername]

Juicer...you got it!

No prob, what you can do if you come across the issue again here at SBR is switch over to the desktop version temporarily, there's a link in the footer of every page. Then you can switch back just as easily again.

[oilcountry99]

Thanks juicer

[TechnicalTrader]

Slightly down again. Man, the system is taking a beating but I am extremely confident that it will turn it around. todays unders, might add an over later...

		$17.00	$14.41	Pending	1/30/17 8:05pm NBA Basketball 503 Orlando Magic/Minnesota Timberwolves Under 211 -118*
		$17.00	$16.50	Pending	1/30/17 8:05pm Reduced Basketball 505 Detroit Pistons/Boston Celtics Under 213½ -103*
		$17.00	$15.89	Pending	1/30/17 10:35pm Reduced Basketball 509 Memphis Grizzlies/Phoenix Suns Under 209 -107*

[oilcountry99]

TT...time for a record and BR update? I also thought you would indicate the risk% with each wager...maybe I'm asking to much lol! Time for a turn around

[TechnicalTrader]

TT...time for a record and BR update? I also thought you would indicate the risk% with each wager...maybe I'm asking to much lol! Time for a turn around

Will do, but later. Currently on the road with diarrhea... not a good combo. Lol

[TechnicalTrader]

Bankroll day 1: $1000.00
Record: 4-9
Total Profit: -19.43%
Bankroll day 4: $805.74

Hit rate: 30.76%

Turnaround time. Do not expect me to remain sub 50% for long!

[thekoreanmang]

Wow. Glad to see your application! Good luck, my friend!

[TechnicalTrader]

terrible, terrible, terrible...

Well, gotta stick with it:

	1/31/17 1:15pm	$15.00	$13.89	Pending	1/31/17 7:05pm Reduced Basketball 701 New York Knicks/Washington Wizards Under 217 -108*
	1/31/17 1:15pm	$15.00	$14.56	Pending	1/31/17 10:05pm Reduced Basketball 709 Charlotte Hornets/Portland Trail Blazers Under 214½ -103*

[JKEGS81]

hope you're feeling better and we turn this ship around tonight TT

[TechnicalTrader]

1 for 2 last night, break even...

Here we go, finally got some over signals!

2/1/17 2:08pm

$15.00

$12.82

Pending

2/1/17 7:05pm NBA Basketball 501 Minnesota Timberwolves/Cleveland Cavaliers Over 215 -117*

	2/1/17 1:03pm	$15.00	$14.02	Pending	2/1/17 9:05pm Reduced Basketball 519 Los Angeles Clippers/Phoenix Suns Over 220 -107*
	2/1/17 12:49pm	$15.00	$14.71	Pending	2/1/17 7:35pm Reduced Basketball 505 Atlanta Hawks/Miami Heat Under 205 -102*
	2/1/17 12:49pm	$15.00	$14.56	Pending	2/1/17 9:35pm Reduced Basketball 521 Chicago Bulls/Oklahoma City Thunder Under 206½ -103*

[thekoreanmang]

Good luck!

Hopefully you've recovered from your recent bout!

[juicername]

Good luck tonight!

[TechnicalTrader]

Good luck!

Hopefully you've recovered from your recent bout!

Thanks, I tweaked a few things and am looking forward to February. I'm messing around with a model which went 21-5 last February and is 51-32 on the overs in February dating back to February 2013.

[TechnicalTrader]

1 for 2 last night, break even...

Here we go, finally got some over signals!

	2/1/17 1:04pm	$15.00	$13.89	Pending	2/1/17 7:05pm Reduced Basketball 501 Minnesota Timberwolves/Cleveland Cavaliers Under 215 -108*
	2/1/17 1:03pm	$15.00	$14.02	Pending	2/1/17 9:05pm Reduced Basketball 519 Los Angeles Clippers/Phoenix Suns Over 220 -107*
	2/1/17 12:49pm	$15.00	$14.71	Pending	2/1/17 7:35pm Reduced Basketball 505 Atlanta Hawks/Miami Heat Under 205 -102*
	2/1/17 12:49pm	$15.00	$14.56	Pending	2/1/17 9:35pm Reduced Basketball 521 Chicago Bulls/Oklahoma City Thunder Under 206½ -103*

Damn it, that Cav's play is supposed to be an over!!!Changing now!

[TechnicalTrader]

Adding one play:

2/1/17 4:00pm

$15.00

$13.64

Pending

2/1/17 7:35pm NBA Basketball 507 New York Knicks/Brooklyn Nets Over 223½ -110*

Fun fact:

Games where home teams who have less than 15 wins YTD, during February and March have gone over at a rate of about 64% over the last three seasons. Here are the numbers:

2013: 12-6
2014: 20-13
2015: 27-14-1

Another fun fact:

The Nets suck

[TechnicalTrader]

2-3 last night.... This is not fun at all. Grinding.

	2/2/17 2:53pm	$8.00	$7.84	Pending	2/2/17 8:00pm Reduced Basketball 703 Atlanta Hawks/Houston Rockets Over 225½ -102*
	2/2/17 2:53pm	$8.00	$7.62	Pending	2/2/17 10:30pm Reduced Basketball 707 Golden State Warriors/Los Angeles Clippers Over 227½ -105*

[TechnicalTrader]

a few NCAAB picks on top. Same system, different league.

	2/2/17 3:01pm	$8.00	$7.27	Pending	2/2/17 7:00pm College Basketball 727 James Madison/Elon Over 131 -110*
	2/2/17 3:01pm	$8.00	$7.27	Pending	2/2/17 7:00pm College Basketball 731 Florida International/Old Dominion Over 120½ -110*
	2/2/17 3:01pm	$16.00	$14.55	Pending	2/2/17 10:00pm College Basketball 753 Santa Clara/Portland U Over 127 -110*
	2/2/17 3:01pm	$8.00	$6.84	Pending	2/2/17 11:00pm College Basketball 757 Saint Mary's CA/Pacific Over 123 -117*

[TechnicalTrader]

Bankroll day 1: $1000.00
Record: 8-17
Total Profit: -26.42%
Bankroll day 7: $735.76

Hit rate: 32%

[TechnicalTrader]

	2/3/17 10:57am	$22.07	$21.02	Pending	2/3/17 9:05pm Reduced Basketball 863 Milwaukee Bucks/Denver Nuggets Over 221 -105*
	2/3/17 10:56am	$14.72	$14.02	Pending	2/3/17 7:35pm Reduced Basketball 853 Minnesota Timberwolves/Detroit Pistons Over 210½ -105*
	2/3/17 10:56am	$36.79	$35.04	Pending	2/3/17 9:05pm Reduced Basketball 863 Milwaukee Bucks/Denver Nuggets Over 221 -105*
	2/3/17 10:56am	$29.43	$28.85	Pending	2/3/17 10:35pm Reduced Basketball 865 Dallas Mavericks/Portland Trail Blazers Over 206½ -102*

In BR %'s:

Trailblazers	Over	4%
Pistons	Over	2%
Nuggets	Over	5%
Nuggets	Over	3%

[oilcountry99]

8% on Nuggets...a sweep tonight would be nice!

[TechnicalTrader]

In deed

EDIT: The reason I have 8% on DEN is because I am using several systems and getting two very strong over signals.

Well, that was the jinx. Buy the under now. LOL