Scott's "Fade the Public" MLB Betting System - 15% ROI, +128 units since 2006 so far

[liqidzen]

Hello all,

I thought I'd post this system up for you all to have a look at/try that I have been having much success with over the last few years. Essentially what this system does is take advantage of the bookies desire to balance their books on heavily-favored games. We will be betting on underdogs with 30% or less of the public money to win. There are some filters which boost our ROI also.

I have back-tested it from 2006 till present, resulting in a return on investment of 15.8% and +128 units won.
The win rate isn't too flash hot, at 375-437 (46.2%) but we will be betting on the underdogs at +120 odds or better so it pays for itself.

If anyone wants to join me I will be researching and hopefully posting plays in this thread. I am relatively new to baseball betting and don't know much about the sport itself so would appreciate any comments/feedback or game commentaries from anyone who wants to bet along with me.

Here are the rules:

• games are played during the regular MLB season

• the team must be the underdog with a moneyline between +120 and +200

(Technically this should be the closing moneyline but I like to get my bets in early and will be betting usually around 7-8 am EST)

• the over/under is 8.5 or higher. We want high-run games that are unpredictable

• - the opponent's winning percentage is 60% or greater ( http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/rpi/_/sort/winPct )

• - lastly and most crucial, the public betting average must be 30% or less (check http://www.thespread.com/mlb-basebal...-betting-chart )

While I wasn't able to statistically test this, I have had past success using a 3 game chase (A, B, C bets) for games which are played in a 3 game series. Usually once I have an A or B bet win I stop the series. I am also sometimes a bit lenient with some of the filters, for example if the over is +8, or if the public % 32 I might still play it if I feel good about the game. Would love to hear your feedback about this particular strategy.

Best of luck to anyone who would like to join us!

[liqidzen]

OK first bet of tonight: with 14% of the public, Philadelphia @ +132
I usually go through the public betting % first to select relevant plays, then knock them off using the filters.

Cincinatti is technically a play but I already won with them last night (A B C chase) so won't be playing them.

[newguy]

Just checking - this is the first year your actually betting it? I have learned to stay away from chases - have had much bigger losses then wins but 3 game underdog does limit your losses which is good. That said, everyone loves a good chase thread. Will keep eye on thread.

Only feedback is, you may want to distinguish which plays fall slightly outside system (you said you are lenient w some filters). Were you lenient w back testing? If so it may have caused you to cherry pick winners and leave out losers. So my feedback would just be to identify which games fall just outside the rules but you are going with anyway. That way people know which ones your going with your gut on vs pure stat analysis.

[newguy]

Also this looks to be similar theory just non chase? http://www.sportsbookreview.com/foru...lb-system.html

[liqidzen]

Thanks very much for that, I might see if we can work together rather than doubling up on a nearly-identical system.