Crystal Palace vs. Manchester City Prediction: Picks & Odds for Friday's Premier League Match
Manchester City squeaked out a victory against Bournemouth in the waning minutes of their season opener, while Crystal Palace came up empty away at Everton despite probably being the most deserving side. My Crystal Palace vs Manchester City prediction looks at whether Palace can actually make a game of this at home, or whether City will get right after an opener that saw them chasing for most of the night.
Play from Selhurst Park in London gets underway at 3 p.m. ET on Friday, airing on USA Network. City is a -167 moneyline betting favorite on the three-way line, with the draw listed at +300 and Crystal Palace at +400.
⚽ Crystal Palace vs. Manchester City predictions & best bets
See our experts' soccer picks.
| 💰 Best bets | 📊 Best odds | ⚖️ Wager (units) |
|---|---|---|
| Manchester City Over 16.5 shots | -120 via bet365 | 0.5 units to profit 0.42 units |
| Crystal Palace +1 asian handicap | -125 via bet365 | 0.25 units to profit 0.2 units |
| Erling Haaland to record 5+ shots | +125 via bet365 | 0.25 units to profit 0.31 units |
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💰 Crystal Palace vs. Manchester City best bet
Check out all of our soccer betting analysis and expert predictions this season.
Manchester City Over 16.5 shots (-120)
City came up short of this number in their opener, but I don't think there's cause to believe they won't get there this week. City looked much more alive with Rayan Cherki in the lineup last week, and I'm expecting he should be in the starting XI on Friday.
Palace's back line will face constant pressure from Haaland, Cherki, Foden, and Semenyo. Chadi Riad was stretchered off in Palace's opener, and the club has had to pick up Axel Disasi on a season-long loan from Chelsea. That back line showed its vulnerabilities against Everton in the opening, conceding 35 touches in their box and leading to 11 shots. City will top those numbers.
🆚 SBR Edge: Territorial Control
City owned the ball for 66% of their tilt against Bournemouth - that's a one game sample size, I get it. But, under Pep last year the Citizens logged a 60.5% Premier League-leading mark. Sure, midfield changes, but there's no reason to believe the drop-off will be severe.
Palace will have to defend deep again this side, they'll concede possession regularly, and give up attacking sequences to the visitors.
🔥 More Crystal Palace vs. Manchester City expert picks
Crystal Palace +1 asian handicap (-125)
Yep, just went over a bunch of reasons that Manchester should dominate this game and get plenty of shots, but there is still value to be had on the Palace +1 asian handicap. For those not well-versed in asian handicaps, this would produce a win with a Palace victory, a win on a draw, and a push on City winning by exactly one.
I'm not here to say that City is bad under Maresco, or that Palace is good. Matchweek 1 showed us that City is not a finished product under Maresca, City takes to the road and Palace has the home advantage which is always helpful, and Palace wasn't some toothless squad against the Toffees.
Palace was just short of 2 xG despite being held off the scoresheet, they produced four big chances and they struck the woodwork twice. All in all, they were probably a little hard-done-by not to grab a single point.
Score prediction: City 2, Palace 1
Erling Haaland to record 5+ shots (+125)
This is a play on the price more than anything, because we're asking for Haaland to have a game with a higher output than he usually does. He cleared this mark in 40% of his Premier League games last season, and while there's a new man in charge, the general offensive principle of City should remain largely unchanged: get Haaland the ball.
I explained above why I thought that City Over 17.5 is my favorite play for the game, and as the central part of that attack, this number is reasonable. He reached it in the opener, but failed to score. He'll be looking to get his Golden Boot campaign opened this week, to make up for lost ground.
⚖️ Crystal Palace vs. Manchester City key stats
| Crystal Palace | Manchester City | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-0-1 | 1-0-0 |
| Home/Away Record | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
| Recent form (all comps) | L | W |
| Goals for | 0 | 2 |
| xGA | 1.96 | 2.25 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 1 |
| xGA | 1.12 | 0.65 |
| Average possession | 58.1% | 66% |
📊 Crystal Palace vs. Manchester City odds
🆚 Crystal Palace vs. Manchester City projected lineups
Here are the projected lineups for Crystal Palace vs. Manchester City; subject to change:
| Crystal Palace (3-4-3) | Manchester City (4-2-3-1) |
|---|---|
| D. Henderson (GK) | Donnarumma (GK) |
| J. Canvot | M. Nunes |
| C. Richards | M. Guehi |
| T. Tomiyasu | R. Dias |
| A. Khalaili | J. Gvardiol |
| D. Kamada | E. Anderson |
| A. Wharton | N. O'Reilly |
| T. Mitchell | R. Cherki |
| Y. Pinot | P. Foden |
| E. Nketiah | A. Semenyo |
| J. Mateta | E. Haaland |
📺 How to watch Crystal Palace vs. Manchester City
- Date: Friday, Aug. 28
- Kickoff: 3 p.m. ET
- Location: Selhurst Park (London)
- TV/Streaming: USA Network
