NFL Over/Under Picks, Predictions Week 15: Jets' Sturdy Defense To Slow Lions' Attack
We dive into the Week 15 NFL slate to find value in the Over/Under markets after the bye weeks have been completed.
This week we're taking a look at whether to follow or fade recent trends for several notable teams. While the Detroit Lions' offense has been lightning it up, the New York Jets could present a matchup problem. Plus, why the Miami Dolphins-Buffalo Bills rematch should clear the total-even in a snowstorm.
Here are our best NFL Week 15 Over/Under picks (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook and BetMGM; pick confidence based on a 1-5 star scale).
Top Over/Under Week 15 Picks
- Dolphins-Bills Over 42 (-110 via DraftKings, BetMGM) ★★★★
- Lions-Jets Under 44.5 (-110 via BetMGM) ★★★★
- Titans-Chargers Over 47.5 (-105 via FanDuel) ★★★
Top Over/Under NFL Week 15 Predictions
Dolphins-Bills Over 42 (-110) ★★★★
While the Dolphins and Bills still enjoy occasional blow-up games following their early-season defensive struggle, the betting market apparently saw enough lackluster meetings from each side to be cautious about Saturday’s rematch.
After opening at 48 points, the total is down significantly to 42 (-110) at DraftKings and FanDuel. Buffalo had two straight games fall short of 40 points while Miami scored just 17 points in consecutive weeks. Still, the market overcorrected slightly with its six-point swing.
Miami still saw five of its last six games clear this total, while Buffalo had only three matchups all year fall short of 40 total points. Though forecasted snow could complicate matters, these offenses are good enough to make this line movement look foolish. FanDuel has a less favorable number (42.5) but juicier odds (-105o) if you feel strongly about this game being a shootout.
Lions-Jets Under 44.5 (-110) ★★★★
The Jets had just one of six home games clear this total in 2022. The Lions looked like an offensive force in recent weeks, but this game environment resembles one where the Jared Goff-led group could regress.
Here are the road opponents Detroit faced this season, with their respective Defense DVOA rankings: Minnesota (22nd), New England (3rd), Dallas (1st), Chicago (32nd), New York Giants (29th). In the three games against lowly defensive units, the Lions averaged a robust 30 points per game. But in two road matchups against elite Ds, Detroit compiled a grand total of six points.
These splits could matter as the Lions visit a Jets team that ranks an NFL sixth in Defense DVOA. New York’s 20.3 points per game scoring average combined with the Lions’ struggles against quality road defenses could lead to a sub-40-point affair Sunday. DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM all offer the total at 44.5, but the standard -110 Under odds at BetMGM take the cake over the offerings at DraftKings (-115) and FanDuel (-114).
Titans-Chargers Over 47.5 (-110) ★★★
Tennessee ranks an NFL 28th in Pass Defense DVOA this season. Going against L.A. Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert with his full complement of weapons could spell trouble for a Titans team that just allowed 36 points to Jacksonville Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence.
The Chargers haven’t had that explosive game where the passing offense truly ascends, but they’ve been getting closer and haven’t been held below 20 points in any of their last four contests. On the other side, the Derrick Henry-led Titans’ run game could be in for a strong week considering the Chargers rank 25th in Run Defense DVOA.
L.A. had eight games reach 47 or more points this season, with many of those outings featuring wide receiver attrition. DraftKings and BetMGM feature the 47.5-point total with -110 odds. FanDuel is a better value as it offers reduced -105 odds on Over 47.5.
Where to Bet on NFL Week 15 Over/Under Picks
Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:
NFL Week 15 Over/Under picks made 12/14/2022 at 4:19 p.m. ET.
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