🏈 NFL Draft Prediction Markets: Live Odds & Projections for Top 10 Picks
The 2026 NFL Draft kicks off Thursday night with the No. 1 pick, and the Las Vegas Raiders are a lock to take Indiana's Fernando Mendoza with the first pick. But what about the rest of the top 10? Below, I break down the latest NFL draft prediction markets with live odds from prediction market apps and my projections for every top-10 pick ahead of Thursday's first round starting at 8 p.m. ET live on ABC, ESPN, and NFL Network.
1️⃣ Who will be the No. 1 pick?
Prediction market via Kalshi. You can use our Kalshi promo code for a $10 bonus by signing up today. Market subject to change.
The projected first overall pick and favorite to be drafted by the Raiders is Indiana quarterback and Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza, currently sitting at an overwhelming 99%. This is the one selection I believe is essentially locked in for the 2026 NFL Draft. Mendoza has separated himself from the rest of the field with consistent production, strong decision-making, and elite physical tools. Barring a shocking last-minute development, it would take a massive surprise to see any other name called first on draft night.
Prediction: Fernando Mendoza to be the No. 1 pick (99%)
2️⃣ Who will be the No. 2 pick?
We now move on to the New York Jets, and this is where the draft really begins. There are two players who I believe are the only realistic options for this selection: Texas Tech's David Bailey (56%) and Ohio State's Arvell Reese (45%). Both players are EDGE rushers, and the decision comes down to which one projects as the superior pass rusher at the NFL level. The odds on the Jets’ pick have flip-flopped consistently over the past week. At the time of writing, Bailey has jumped to the favorite, despite the Jets canceling his top-30 visit.
My prediction is that the second pick in Thursday’s NFL Draft will be Bailey. He is the better player and the safer option for the Jets at this stage of both players’ careers. I have a +250 ticket on Bailey and am riding it into Thursday night’s draft.
Prediction: David Bailey to be the No. 2 pick (56%)
3️⃣ Who will be the No. 3 pick?
The Arizona Cardinals have the third pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, and I believe they will select whichever player is not taken by the Jets with the second overall pick. One thing I always advise is that draft week is full of smoke and often unreliable reporting that shouldn’t be taken at face value. Rumors have been circulating that Jeremiyah Love (24%) is becoming a favorite in the Cardinals’ draft room, but I simply don’t buy into those reports.
My prediction is that Ohio State's Arvell Reese (31%) will be the third selection on Thursday night by the Cardinals.
Prediction: Arvell Reese to be the No. 3 pick (31%)
4️⃣ Who will be the No. 4 pick?
The Tennessee Titans are next on the clock at the No. 4 pick. Notre Dame's Jeremiyah Love (38%) has been the steady favorite for several weeks, and I do believe he is the right pick for the Titans and second year QB Cam Ward. He would give Tennessee's offense the dual threat offensive game plan it's missed since losing Derrick Henry.
My prediction is that the experts are correct with their predictions here, and the Titans will be selecting Jeremiyah Love (38%) as the No. 4 pick in the 2026 NFL draft.
Prediction: Jeremiyah Love to be the No. 4 pick (38%)
5️⃣ Who will be the No. 5 pick?
With the No. 5 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, the New York Giants will be selecting … Ohio State safety Caleb Downs (17%). Now, let me start by saying that I am a Giants fan, and this is who I want the team to select - but I also believe he is the perfect fit for several reasons. Head coach John Harbaugh has a fantastic track record with this position group (just look at Ed Reed and Kyle Hamilton). The Giants’ secondary is one of the lowest-rated units in football, and adding a playmaker like Downs would be a major boost.
If the Giants do not select Downs, I believe they will turn to his teammate, middle linebacker Sonny Styles (32%). Styles is a game-breaking linebacker, and while the position isn’t considered premium (neither is safety), I still expect one of the two Ohio State defensive standouts to be a Giant at No. 5.
Prediction: Caleb Downs to be the No. 5 pick (17%)
6️⃣ Who will be the No. 6 pick?
On the clock with the No. 6 pick are the Cleveland Browns, and this team has more holes than a cheese shop. I believe there are two players in the running for this pick: offensive tackle Spencer Fano (30%) and wide receiver Carnell Tate (22%). I am not a massive fan of Tate, especially as a top-10 pick. He has all the makings of a fantastic WR2, but he is not an elite WR1. If you are the Browns, you need to solidify the trenches and beef up your offensive line, and Fano is the right man for that job.
It is never the sexy pick to take a lineman in the top 10, but sometimes the non-sexy pick is the right pick. That's why Fano is my pick for the Browns at No. 6.
Prediction: Spencer Fano to be the No. 6 pick (30%)
7️⃣ Who will be the No. 7 pick?
With the No. 7 pick in the 2026 draft, the Washington Commanders are on the clock. This is a pick I feel pretty confident about, and that selection is going to be Carnell Tate (29%). Washington does not need a true WR1, as it still has Pro Bowl wideout Terry McLaurin, and the Commanders desperately need to provide Jayden Daniels with a WR2. This is the only team in the top 10 that I believe is a good fit for Tate.
My prediction is that Carnell Tate (29%) will be a Commander, and this is one of the more confident picks I have in the top 10.
Prediction: Carnell Tate to be the No. 7 pick (29%)
8️⃣ Who will be the No. 8 pick?
We have our first real "long shot" with the No. 8 pick in the NFL Draft, which belongs to the New Orleans Saints. This is a prime trade-out spot for the Saints, as I do believe they would take Tate if the Commanders didn’t select him with the No. 7 pick. Historically, when a team misses out on its top target, it does one of two things: either trade out or take the best player available. Since this is a non-trade mock, I am backing the best-player-available approach for the Saints, and that is, by far, Sonny Styles in this spot.
The Ohio State linebacker is the only true game-wrecker left at this point in the mock, and the Saints need to add talent to a roster that has a real lack of cornerstone players.
Prediction: Sonny Styles to be the No. 8 pick (5%)
9️⃣ Who will be the No. 9 pick?
We move on to the No. 9 pick, which is held by the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs have several holes to fill, but with star quarterback Patrick Mahomes in the midst of his prime, this team needs to retool quickly on both sides of the ball. They do not have time for a full rebuild. Kansas City lost two key defensive backs in the offseason in Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson. That has left this team with a massive hole there, and I believe Mansoor Delane (19%) is the clear pick at this spot. The Chiefs have not adequately filled the void left by those departures, and adding a player like Mansoor Delane would help address it.
Delane is by far the best corner in this class and provides much-needed stability to a defense that was torched through the air last season.
Prediction: Mansoor Delane to be the No. 9 pick (19%)
🔟 Who will be the No. 10 pick?
The Giants are back on the clock at No. 10 after trading Dexter Lawrence to the Bengals for this spot. The Giants have a tremendous number of holes on this roster as it currently stands, but the top priority is protecting Jaxson Dart. Miami's Francis Mauigoa can slot into the right guard position immediately and become a staple on Big Blue’s offensive line. The Giants need to get back to prioritizing the trenches, and this pick would do just that while giving them a cornerstone for the foreseeable future.
My official prediction is Mauigoa (12%), and this would be the perfect pick for this team.
Prediction: Francis Mauigoa to be the No. 10 pick (12%)
📊 Which players will be drafted in the top 10?
Additional top-10 wagers I am placing are listed below. Both Caleb Downs and Spencer Fano I have going to specific teams in the top 10, and with Olaivavega Ioane, I can see him being selected 10th by the Giants if Mauigoa is gone by then. All three of these players have value at their current price. Spencer Fano should be around 90%, Downs at 90%, and Ioane closer to 75%. Because I feel these are mispriced, we are taking a shot on each of these plays as well.
Best values to be drafted in the top 10
- Caleb Downs, SAF, Ohio State (70%)
- Spencer Fano, T/G, Utah (76%)
- Olaivavega Ioane, T/G, Penn State (49%)
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