2026 NFL Draft Odds: Ty Simpson Jumps Fernando Mendoza as Favorite to Go No. 1
After several of the projected top QBs in college football stumbled out of the gate, chief among them being Texas' Arch Manning, Alabama's Ty Simpson is the new favorite by the 2026 NFL Draft odds to be the No. 1 pick in April.
Simpson, a first-year starter, has +250 odds to be the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft and recently overtook Indiana's Fernando Mendoza (+300) as the favorite. Simpson and Mendoza are the two biggest Heisman Trophy odds favorites.
However, there's still plenty of time for the board to change with the 2026 NFL Draft in Pittsburgh set for April 23 to 25. It might be worth waiting until the NFL draft order becomes clearer before making your NFL picks for who will go No. 1.
📊 Live 2026 NFL Draft odds
Our 2026 NFL Draft odds update in real time based on the odds from our top NFL betting sites.
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🔢 Opening odds for No. 1 pick of 2026 NFL Draft
Odds via DraftKings.
- Arch Manning (+200)
- Drew Allar (+225)
- Garrett Nussmeier (+450)
- Cade Klubnik (+1800)
- T.J. Parker (+2500)
- Keldric Faulk (+2500)
- Caleb Downs (+2500)
- LaNorris Sellers (+3000)
- Carson Beck (+3000)
- Jayden Maiava (+3500)
- Dante Moore (+3500)
- Spencer Fano (+4000)
- Miller Moss (+4000)
- Harold Perkins Jr. (+4000)
💰 NFL draft odds history
| Year | Pick | Position | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Cam Ward | QB | +1500 |
| 2024 | Caleb Williams | QB | -1000 |
| 2023 | Bryce Young | QB | -1000 |
| 2022 | Travon Walker | DE | +140 |
| 2021 | Trevor Lawrence | QB | -1000 |
| 2020 | Joe Burrow | QB | OFF |
| 2019 | Kyler Murray | QB | -400 |
| 2018 | Baker Mayfield | QB | -175 |
| 2017 | Myles Garrett | DE | -400 |
| 2016 | Jared Goff | QB | -850 |
| 2015 | Jameis Winston | QB | -1500 |
| 2014 | Jadeveon Clowney | DE | -400 |
❓2026 NFL Draft FAQs
Who is favored to be the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft?
Alabama QB Ty Simpson is the early favorite to be the No. 1 pick, according to the 2026 NFL Draft odds. His odds of +250 imply a 28.57% probability he'll go No. 1 in April, according to our odds converter.
Who has the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft?
We won't know who holds the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft until the end of the regular season. The New Orleans Saints, New York Jets, and Tennessee Titans are expected to be among the contenders for the No. 1 pick.
Who was the first overall pick last year?
The Tennessee Titans selected Miami QB Cam Ward with the No. 1 pick in the past NFL draft.
When is the 2026 NFL Draft?
The 2026 NFL Draft will be held from April 23-25. The first round of the draft will begin at 8 p.m. ET on Thursday, April 23.
Where is the 2026 NFL Draft?
The 2026 NFL Draft will be held in Pittsburgh.
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