2026 NFL Draft Odds: Nussmeier Favorite to Go No. 1; Arch Manning Slides With Rumors of Return
Despite all the buzz being about Texas QB Arch Manning's pro potential, it's LSU's Garrett Nussmeier who's the favorite by the 2026 NFL Draft odds to be the No. 1 pick in April.
However, that's because many believe Manning, the Heisman Trophy odds favorite, will return for another season with the Longhorns. But with several talented QBs leading college football championship odds contenders this season, the race to be the No. 1 pick is wide-open.
The 2026 NFL Draft will be held in Pittsburgh from April 23-25, and broadcasted on ABC, ESPN, and NFL Network.
📊 Live 2026 NFL Draft odds
Our 2026 NFL Draft odds update in real time based on the odds from our top NFL betting sites.
🏆 My NFL draft prediction & best bet to go No. 1
🐔 LaNorris Sellers
📊 Best odds: +950 via DraftKings ($10 to win $95)
🔢 Implied probability: 9.52%
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It's too early to have any idea which of these quarterbacks will separate themselves from the pack, including Manning. There's as many as seven QBs getting first-round buzz at this point, and it's unrealistic to believe any non-QB will be the top pick in a class loaded with passers; nine of the last 11 No. 1 picks have been QBs.
It's sort of surprising to see that Nussmeier's odds are already so short when it's such a toss-up with how these QBs stack up. Given the NFL's propensity for falling in love with well-built passers who have rocket arms, Sellers looks like the best bet to go No. 1 right now. It doesn't hurt that he's an elite running QB, too, as the game continues to evolve toward favoring more athletic QBs.
The 20-year-old redshirt sophomore is coming off a flashy freshman campaign in which he threw for over 2,500 yards, ran for over 600 yards, and accounted for 25 touchdowns. Sellers also racked up 16 big-time throws and forced the sixth-most missed tackles in the country among QBs (47).
If he takes another leap this season for South Carolina, it's hard to imagine him not being in contention to be the No. 1 pick with his physical tools.
🔢 Opening odds for No. 1 pick of 2026 NFL Draft
Odds via DraftKings.
- Arch Manning (+200)
- Drew Allar (+225)
- Garrett Nussmeier (+450)
- Cade Klubnik (+1800)
- T.J. Parker (+2500)
- Keldric Faulk (+2500)
- Caleb Downs (+2500)
- LaNorris Sellers (+3000)
- Carson Beck (+3000)
- Jayden Maiava (+3500)
- Dante Moore (+3500)
- Spencer Fano (+4000)
- Miller Moss (+4000)
- Harold Perkins Jr. (+4000)
💰 NFL draft odds history
| Year | Pick | Position | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Cam Ward | QB | +1500 |
| 2024 | Caleb Williams | QB | -1000 |
| 2023 | Bryce Young | QB | -1000 |
| 2022 | Travon Walker | DE | +140 |
| 2021 | Trevor Lawrence | QB | -1000 |
| 2020 | Joe Burrow | QB | OFF |
| 2019 | Kyler Murray | QB | -400 |
| 2018 | Baker Mayfield | QB | -175 |
| 2017 | Myles Garrett | DE | -400 |
| 2016 | Jared Goff | QB | -850 |
| 2015 | Jameis Winston | QB | -1500 |
| 2014 | Jadeveon Clowney | DE | -400 |
❓2026 NFL Draft FAQs
Who is favored to be the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft?
LSU QB Garrett Nussmeier is the early favorite to be the No. 1 pick according to the 2026 NFL Draft odds. His odds of +375 represent an implied win probability of 21.05%, according to our odds converter.
Who has the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft?
We won't know who holds the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft until the end of the regular season. The Cleveland Browns, Tennessee Titans, and New Orleans Saints are expected to be among the contenders for the No. 1 pick.
Who was the first overall pick last year?
The Tennessee Titans selected Miami QB Cam Ward with the No. 1 pick of the past NFL draft.
When is the 2026 NFL Draft?
The 2026 NFL Draft will be held from April 23-25. The first round of the draft will begin at 8 p.m. ET on Thursday, April 23.
Where is the 2026 NFL Draft?
The 2026 NFL Draft will be held in Pittsburgh.
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