Chargers vs. Chiefs Picks, Predictions NFL Week 2: L.A. Hangs in Battle for Division
The top two favorites in a loaded AFC West meet Thursday night as the Kansas City Chiefs host the Los Angeles Chargers. Read on for our Chargers-Chiefs picks.
Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is 5-2 in his career against the Chargers. Kansas City is also 13-3 in its last 16 meetings with Los Angeles; however, the Chargers won two of the previous three meetings and both victories came at Arrowhead Stadium. Mahomes and many other Chiefs starters rested in their Week 17 matchup in 2020.
The Chiefs have won six straight home openers, and whoever wins this matchup will own sole possession of first place as the only undefeated AFC West team after two weeks.
Here are our Chargers-Chiefs NFL picks for Week 2 (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook, PointsBet, and BetMGM; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Chargers vs. Chiefs Game Info
Date: Thursday, Sept. 15, 8:15 p.m. ET
TV: Prime Video
Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Weather: 87 degrees, 1% chance of precipitation, 14 mph S wind
Chargers vs. Chiefs Odds Analysis
Kansas City’s point spread has risen from an opening number of -3.5 to either -4 or -4.5. The Chiefs are popular favorites, attracting 64% of the bets and 75% of the handle.
The movement on the total has been similar to the point spread, increasing from 53 to 54.5. The largest wagers have backed the Under, with 18% of the tickets accounting for 26% of the cash.
Chargers vs. Chiefs Picks
Chargers vs. Chiefs ATS Pick
Chargers +4.5 (-112) ★★
Kansas City looked impressive in Week 1, racking up 488 total yards and 33 first downs in a 44-21 road dismantling of the Arizona Cardinals. It was also Mahomes’ sixth career game with five passing touchdowns, tying him for fourth-most all-time. But the Cardinals have also proven to be a team you cannot depend on without a healthy DeAndre Hopkins, and this line feels a touch inflated based on an overreaction to an opening-week victory.
Los Angeles will miss five-time Pro Bowl receiver Keenan Allen, who suffered a hamstring injury last week. Still, Kansas City has injury concerns of its own, as Mahomes has a sore left wrist after landing on it after a touchdown pass, and kicker Harrison Butker is out due to a sprained left ankle.
Chargers QB Justin Herbert has plenty of weapons on this offense without Allen, as Mike Williams becomes the go-to receiver. He also established an instant connection with tight end Gerald Everett, who had 54 yards receiving and a touchdown in Week 1. The Chargers are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four trips to Arrowhead, so they know what it takes to compete with their division rivals.
We are most comfortable making this wager at FanDuel, as it is one of the lone sportsbooks offering +4.5 with the least amount of juice.
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Chargers vs. Chiefs O/U Pick
Under 54.5 (-110) ★★★★
The Chargers' defense made key acquisitions in the offseason, some of whom paid immediate dividends in their season opener. Khalil Mack had three sacks (second-most in his career), and the team confused the Las Vegas Raiders with multiple defensive looks, never giving the same look twice.
Los Angeles recorded six sacks, three interceptions, and forced three fumbles in Week 1. In the process, L.A. became the first team in the last 30 seasons to reach all of those marks in a season opener.
L.A.’s Week 1 defensive performance was more than encouraging and was the 10th time cashing the Under in its last 11 September games.
Chargers vs. Chiefs Prop Pick
Mahomes Under 296.5 passing yards (-105) ★★
When Mahomes was blitzed by the Cardinals last week, he had a QBR of 99, completed 15 of 21 passes, and threw for 135 yards and five touchdowns. That tied the mark for most passing touchdowns when blitzed since 2006.
While Arizona blitzed on 21 of 41 dropbacks (51% blitz rate was the highest Mahomes faced in his career), the Chargers will likely throw a much different look at him, as they have two of the best pass rushers (Joey Bosa and Mack) to get home without blitzing.
We are making this wager at DraftKings, as FanDuel’s O/U for Mahomes’ passing yards is 295.5.
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Chargers-Chiefs picks made 9/15/2022 at 6:05 a.m. ET
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