Bengals vs. Broncos Week 15 Picks: AFC Wild Card Contenders Square Up

The battle for the playoffs is on. The Cincinnati Bengals and Denver Broncos enter Week 15 with 7-6 records. This matchup could prove pivotal in propelling one team to the playoffs. We look at who has the upper hand in our Bengals-Broncos NFL picks.

The Bengals started off the season with so much promise at 5-2 before things took a turn. The last six games have brought four losses, and Cincinnati can only hang its hat on wins over the Las Vegas Raiders and Pittsburgh Steelers — two teams it was expected to beat as the favorite.

Denver is somehow still in this thing after starting 3-0 and flaming out with a four-game losing skid from Week 4-7. However, the Broncos are 4-2 against the spread over their last six games. They won outright in each cover and twice cashed on the moneyline as underdogs. Coming off a 38-10 win over the Detroit Lions, the Broncos look dangerous in the AFC playoff race.

Here are my picks and predictions for the NFL Week 15 matchup between the Bengals and Broncos (odds via PointsBet; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Bengals vs. Broncos Week 15 Game Info

Date/Time: Sunday, Dec. 19, 4:05 p.m. ETTV: CBSLocation: Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, COWeather: 58 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, 8 mph winds

Bengals vs. Broncos Odds Analysis

Cincinnati opened as a short 1-point underdog in Denver before the money poured in on the Broncos. The Bengals are now three-point underdogs at some books despite fetching a heavy share of the handle. A line of 2.5 is available at most books.

The total has not moved from the open of 44 points at most books.

Bengals vs. Broncos Picks

Bengals +3 (-110) ???Under 44 (-110) ?????

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Bengals vs. Broncos Predictions

Bengals +3 (-110) 

On paper, the Bengals are a far superior team. They rank eighth in scoring offense, though that’s likely inflated considering they have had the easiest schedule to this point according to Football Outsiders.

That may cease to be the truth against Denver, which ranks second in opponent points per game and seventh in yards per game allowed. With that said, the Broncos have allowed 5.4 yards per play, which ranks 11th in the league, and they're 19th by weighted DVOA.

This Bengals team loves to run the ball, and that’s been one of the reasons the efficiency numbers haven’t really respected them to this point. However, the Broncos rank 25th in DVOA against the run and 22nd in yards per carry, which should open things up for running back Joe Mixon and the rest of this Cincinnati ground attack.

Considering the Bengals run it 43.4% of the time and play excellent defense against the run, you have to love this spot against a Broncos team that has been run through on defense and which has also run the ball a lot — 42.94% of the time. The last few weeks have been awful concerning for this defense, and that should continue.

Under 44 (-110)

The Under is the easy call on the total. I discussed above how both of these teams love to run the ball, and the script should fit a low-scoring, grind-it-out game. Cincinnati will have no reason to abandon the run after establishing an early lead, and Denver will struggle to move the ball through the air with a weak passing attack that’s been unfruitful this year.

Both of these teams rank in the bottom five of the league in pace, with the Bengals checking in 31st at 29.81 seconds per play, and Denver coming in 28th, running one every 29.43 seconds. Things get even slower for both sides in the second half, and even when Denver has trailed by seven or more points it still has ranked 26th in pace.

This makes for a pretty slow, boring game. I’ll take the Under with great pleasure.

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Bengals-Broncos picks made 12/16/2021 at 8:55 p.m. ET.