lllinois vs. Iowa State Prediction, Expert Picks & Odds for Sweet 16

The second-seeded Iowa State Cyclones face the third-seeded Illinois Fighting Illini in Thursday's Sweet 16 of the 2024 NCAA Tournament, as we offer our Illinois vs. Iowa State expert picks and player props for Thursday based on the March Madness odds.

The No. 2 seed Iowa State Cyclones (29-7) have looked the part through the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament. They'll face their toughest test yet against the No. 3 seed Illinois Fighting Illini (28-8) in Thursday's Sweet 16 showdown, which tips off at 10:09 p.m. ET (TBS/truTV) from TD Garden in Boston.

Iowa State is a 1.5-point favorite by the Sweet 16 odds and betting lines, largely thanks to its top-ranked defense by adjusted efficiency. Fittingly, Illinois carries the country's best offense into Thursday's clash, setting up one of the best in-game matchups of the entire NCAA Tournament.

To accompany our Sweet 16 expert picks and Sweet 16 player props and best bets, here are our best Illinois vs. Iowa State expert picks (odds via our best March Madness betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Illinois vs. Iowa State game info & odds

• When: Thursday, March 28
• Tip-off: 10:09 p.m. ET
• Where: TD Garden, Boston, Mass.
• How to watch: TBS / truTV
• Favorite: Iowa State -1.5 (-110 via bet365)

Illinois (3) vs. Iowa State (2) expert picks

Iowa State to win ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -110 via Caesars

All of the attention on Thursday's matchup, rightfully so, will focus on the No. 1 rated units on each end of the court. And I can't help but think that favors Iowa State.

Don't get me wrong: Illinois' offense is as impressive as they come with likely NBA lottery pick Terrence Shannon Jr. (23.3 PPG) leading the way. He's one of three players averaging 12-plus points for the Fighting Illini, who scored a ridiculous 1.43 points per possession in their second-round blowout of Duquesne.

Good luck maintaining that pace against the Cyclones, who have held 11 straight opponents to fewer than 1.0 points per possession - a group that features five tournament teams, including No. 1 seed Houston. The key is a disruptive "no-middle" defense that traps ball-handlers and erases passing lanes and open shots, which is a clear way to get any elite offense out of rhythm.

While Shannon is a capable ball-handler, backcourt mates Marcus Domask (16%) and Ty Rodgers (19.2%) both turn it over at a relatively high rate. Similarly, Illinois' bigs could struggle to maintain their typical output against a team that ranks second in forced turnover rate (25.5%) and third in steal rate (15.2%).

There's an argument to be made that this game could ultimately be decided on the other end of the court between Iowa State's 49th-ranked offense and Illinois' 92nd-ranked defense. That, too, favors the Cyclones, though they should have plenty of opportunities to score in transition if they're generating turnovers at a prolific rate.

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Hason Ward Over 6.5 points ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -125 via bet365

While I'm expecting Iowa State's defense to ultimately dictate this matchup, the Cyclones will still need to score points - particularly in the half court - to survive this Sweet 16 duel. That's where Ward comes in.

The 6-foot-9, 230-pound center opened the year as a starter, but an early-season injury sidelined him for nine games and ultimately resigned him to a bench role upon his return. The senior still ranks seventh on the team in minutes per game (16.1) and points per game (6.2), and he's come on strong as of late, clearing this total in four straight games with three double-digit efforts in that stretch.

Illinois is one of the nation's best at preventing shots from the perimeter, funneling the action inside to contend with the eighth-tallest rotation in the country. That isn't an issue for the high-flying Barbados native, who is as much of a lob threat in traditional half-court sets as he is in transition.

He's also arguably the team's best rebounder and interior defender on a per-minute basis, so I wouldn't be surprised if he sees upward of 20 minutes in this game. That should be enough volume for Ward to take advantage of his athleticism inside and support the cause offensively.

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Illinois vs. Iowa State spread & Over/Under analysis

This game features one of the closest point spreads across our best sports betting sites, which have Iowa State priced anywhere from -1 to -2 ahead of Thursday's clash with Illinois. Caesars rarely has the best price on the board, but in this case, it's the clear sportsbook of choice for anyone backing the Cyclones.

The total is between 145.5 and 146 across our best sports betting apps, which is still a full five points lower than the KenPom projection (151) for this game. I'd tend to side with the betting market, as Iowa State should be able to control the pace of this game and disrupt the rhythm of Illinois' elite offense.

Illinois-Iowa State prediction made Thursday at 4:45 p.m. ET.

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