🏀 Warriors vs. Rockets Player Props: Kevin Durant Best Bet & NBA Picks (March 5)
Houston Rockets forward Kevin Durant won two NBA championships with the Golden State Warriors in 2017 and 2018, and heβll face his former team for the first time as a member of the Rockets tonight. Tipoff from Toyota Center in Houston is set for 7:30 p.m. ET (streaming on Prime Video), with the Rockets listed as a 8.5-point betting favorite over the Warriors.
Durant missed the first meeting between these teams this season on Nov. 26 due to a personal matter. My Warriors vs. Rockets player props today account for that absence and also include bets on Rockets guard Reed Sheppard and Warriors guard De'Anthony Melton.
π Best Warriors vs. Rockets player props today: NBA picks for March 5
See all of our experts' NBA picks based on the latest NBA odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.
| Player | Prop bet | Units | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Durant, F, Rockets | Under 25.5 points (-110 via BetMGM) | 1.65u -> 1.5u | βββββ |
| Reed Sheppard, G, Rockets | Over 2.5 three-pointers made (-127 via DraftKings) | 1.27u -> 1u | ββββ |
| De'Anthony Melton, G, Warriors | Under 15.5 points (-115 via BetMGM) | 1.15u -> 1u | ββββ |
Total wagered: 4.07 units | Max profit: 3.5 units
π° Best Warriors vs. Rockets prop bet
Follow all of our NBA analysis and expert predictions this season.
Kevin Durant Under 25.5 points (-110)
You might assume that Durant would go out of his way to score more against his former team, but that hasn't been the case. Durant has scored 24 or fewer points in eight of his ten games against the Warriors since leaving for the Brooklyn Nets.
If this were the first meeting of the season in San Francisco, I could see him taking it more seriously, but in Houston, this shouldn't mean much for Durant. BetMGM has Durant Under 25.5 points at -110, but I would still play it at any of the best sports betting sites up to -130.
π₯ More Warriors vs. Rockets prop picks
The Rockets have the eighth-shortest odds to win the NBA Finals.
Reed Sheppard Over 2.5 three-pointers made (-127)
Sheppard has made four or more 3-pointers in five straight games. Not only are his makes impressive, but the fact that he's attempted nine or more 3-pointers in four of his last five games is a good sign moving forward for Over bettors.
With several key players on the Rockets' injury report today, there's a strong chance that Sheppard has the same number of touches - or more - against the Warriors. DraftKings lists Sheppard Over 2.5 three-pointers made at -127, but this bet is good up to -140.
De'Anthony Melton Under 15.5 points (-115)
Melton is getting his fair share of touches, but he's overwhelmed as a primary option on the Warriors. He made just 3 of 14 attempts against the LA Clippers on Monday and 3 of 12 against the Los Angeles Lakers on Saturday.
He has scored 10 or fewer points in back-to-back games, and I could see his minutes start to get cut if he continues to shoot so poorly. Melton Under 15.5 points is -115 at BetMGM, but I would still play it up to -125 at any of the best NBA betting sites.
🏀 More NBA player props tonight!
Our senior analyst, Dustin Saracini, has more picks in his NBA player props tonight, including a 3-point prop on Los Angeles Lakers guard Luka Doncic.
π De'Anthony Melton prop trends
I feature plays for the nightcap of today's Prime Video doubleheader in my Lakers vs. Nuggets player props.
| Bet | Best odds | Last 10 games | Last 10 vs. Rockets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 15.5 points | -106 via FanDuel | 5-5 β | 2-8 β |
| Over 2.5 rebounds | -178 via DraftKings | 7-3 β | 7-3 β |
| Over 2.5 assists | -118 via Caesars | 4-6 β | 4-6 β |
| Over 1.5 three-pointers made | -152 via BetRivers | 6-4 β | 4-6 β |
π€ Warriors vs. Rockets betting splits
| Bet type | % of bets ποΈ | % of handle π° |
|---|---|---|
| Warriors ML (+275) | 66% | 48% |
| Rockets ML (-350) | 34% | 52% |
| Warriors +8.5 | 51% | 37% |
| Rockets -8.5 | 49% | 63% |
| Over 214.5 | 54% | 18% |
| Under 214.5 | 46% | 82% |
The betting splits indicate that the sharp money is on the Rockets tonight for both the spread and moneyline. I already have a wager placed on the Rockets spread, and this makes me confident in my play. -L.J. Blut
π‘ How I'm betting Warriors vs. Rockets
For my bankroll strategy, I treat 1 unit as 1% of the money Iβve set aside exclusively for sports betting. Iβve allocated 4.07 units for this game - slightly more than Iβd typically wager on three player props - because Iβm confident Durantβs points line is too high at BetMGM.
Iβm expecting a tight, low-scoring affair today, as the Warriors have scored just 101 points in each of their last two games. Meanwhile, the Rockets have seven players listed as out or questionable on their injury report.
💸 Looking for an ATS pick?
LJ Blut is looking to go 10-1 in the NBA with his video play of the day.
π Warriors vs. Rockets injuries
πΊ How to watch Warriors vs. Rockets
- Date: Thursday March 5
- Tipoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Toyota Center (Houston)
- TV: Streaming on Prime Video
π My win/loss record: Updated March 5
All NBA picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since Feb. 10.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Parlays | 1-8 | -1.34 units β | -49.68% β |
| Player props | 34-27-3 | +4.43 units β | 5.7% β |
| Overall | 35-35-3 | +3.09 units β | 3.9% β |
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