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Best NBA Parlays Today: Picks, Predictions for Monday's Game

Jon Metler

Last Updated: March 6, 2023 9:20 PM EST • 3 min 34 sec read.

We explore Damian Lillard's next team picks, odds and predictions.
Damian Lillard of the Portland Trail Blazers drives against Khris Middleton of the Milwaukee Bucks at Moda Center on Feb. 06, 2023 in Portland, Oregon. Photo by Alika Jenner/Getty Images via AFP.

Can Brandon Ingram lead the New Orleans Pelicans to victory in Sacramento? Jon Metler shares four of his favorite NBA same-game parlays for Monday's games using the latest NBA odds. 

With Lillard averaging 42.2 points per game since the All-Star break, the market has responded to his exceptional level of play. The point total for Lillard is now trading at 37.5 on Monday, which is one of the highest I've ever seen. 

The real question is, will we bet Over or Under Lillard's total of 37.5 points on FanDuel?

Here are our NBA SGP picks for Monday (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook).

Monday's NBA SGP picks

GamePropsCombined Odds
Trail Blazers-PistonsLillard Under 37.5 points/Over 7.5 assists +276
Hawks-HeatYoung Over 23.5 points, Murray Over 5.5 assists +266
Raptors-NuggetsVanVleet Under 20.5 points, Porter Jr. Over 16.5 points+226
Pelicans-KingsIngram Over 27.5 points, McCollum Over 5.5 assists +217

Check out our parlay calculator here!

Pelicans vs. Kings odds

Check out our complete list of NBA odds here!

NBA SGP predictions: Hawks vs. Heat

Damian Lillard Under 37.5 points vs. Pistons (-118)

If Lillard had been projected to go Over this total, I would be all over it because I've never seen a 37.5 – but I think Lillard has been steamed too high here. Lillard opened at Under 35.5 (-108) at FanDuel and is now available at Under 37.5 (-118). The projections for Lillard have him scoring 34.9 points, which was very close to the original total of 35.5 but well below the now adjusted total of 37.5 points. 

Damian Lillard Over 7.5 assists vs. Pistons (+108)

I don't think Lillard will have a bad game even though I'm playing Under his points total.

His usage rate will still be sky high. The Trail Blazers ask Lillard to carry their offense night in and night out, and against a bad Pistons team, I think he will try to set up his teammates. Lillard is projected to have 8.1 assists against the Pistons, so we can price the Over 7.5 assists at -120. 

NBA SGP predictions: Hawks vs. Heat

Trae Young Over 23.5 points vs. Heat (-118)

Young scored a season-low eight points last time out against the Heat, and I'm going to use that performance to my advantage. The natural reaction would be to take the Under on Young here, but the narrative gives us value on the Over. With Young projected to score 25.4 points, we can price the Over 23.5 points at -135, so at -118, we see a nice edge. 

Dejounte Murray Over 5.5 assists vs. Heat (+114)

FanDuel's price on Murray's assist prop is far from the most competitive, and I highly suggest placing a straight bet at +125 via DraftKings. Shop around and make this parlay at whatever sportsbook has the highest odds on Murray's prop.

The first place I recommend checking is DraftKings, followed by BetMGM. Murray is projected to drop 6.4 dimes against the Heat, so the Over 5.5 should trade at -155. This bet has a positive expected value of 30% at +114, which is a great edge, but you'll want to maximize the value and find the highest possible odds for Murray Over 5.5. 

NBA SGP predictions: Raptors vs. Nuggets

Fred VanVleet Under 20.5 points vs. Nuggets (-115)

FanDuel is offering the best price on the market for this prop, but I don't anticipate it remaining available for long. The Under 20.5 points is currently trading at -133 on Caesars and -120 on DraftKings, and I believe you'll continue to see this momentum towards the Under throughout the day. It would be surprising if this prop didn't drop to 19.5 points. As VanVleet is projected to score 18.7 points against the Nuggets, the Under 20.5 points should trade closer to -165 than -115. 

Michael Porter Jr. Over 16.5 points vs. Raptors (-125)

Porter Jr. is running hot right now, and his points prop has not been adjusted appropriately to account for this. PointsBet has moved its line on Porter from Over 16.5 (-120) to Over 17.5 (-105), which means it now values the Over 16.5 at -135 while we can scoop a -125 at FanDuel. Besides the favorable price point we're seeing at FanDuel, the projections also show Porter going over his points total with 18.1 points. 

NBA SGP predictions: Pelicans vs. Kings

Brandon Ingram Over 27.5 points vs. Kings (-106)

When it comes to his scoring, Ingram exhibits extreme "spurtability", as he can score 17 points one game and 40 the next. I expect Ingram to stuff the stat sheet against the Kings on Monday. With Ingram projected to score 29.2 points against the Kings, we can price this prop at -125. 

C.J. McCollum Over 5.5 assists vs. Kings (-148)

If our numbers indicate that Ingram will be scoring all the baskets, it only makes sense that we may also be seeing some value in McCollum recording over 5.5 assists. I also favor the Under on McCollum's points prop, however, I prefer the Over on assists slightly more. We're laying some steep juice here at -148, but it's justified as McCollum is projected to record 6.5 assists, which means that my price on the Over 5.5 is -165.

NBA player prop picks made 03/06/2023 at 9:30 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Jon Metler
Jon Metler is a Sports Betting Analyst at SportsbookReview.com. Having played, coached, and officiated basketball, he immediately turned his attention to the NBA and College Basketball when he entered the sports betting space. Sports betting has been a part of his life for over 13 years, and he specializes in futures markets and player props, particularly in the NBA. In pursuit of value, he keeps a close eye on movements in the betting markets. He believes strongly in analytics and staying ahead of the curve; let the numbers do the talking. A graduate of the University of Windsor with a degree in Sports Studies, Jon enjoys spending time with his dogs when he isn't watching basketball.