NBA Best Bets, Odds Today: Matchups, Picks, Predictions for Wednesday
Wednesday in the NBA features a loaded 10-game slate with several premier matchups on tap. We have highlighted the odds and our NBA best bets.
Wednesday night in the NBA sees heavyweights Atlanta and Boston squaring off in an Eastern Conference clash before star-studded Western Conference foes, Golden State and Phoenix do battle in the nightcap.
Who prevails in the nationally-televised doubleheader? Here are our best bets for Wednesday’s NBA slate (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Wednesday’s NBA Schedule and Odds
(odds via DraftKings)
- Miami Heat (-120) vs. Toronto Raptors (+100)
- Boston Celtics (-140) vs. Atlanta Hawks (+120)
- Minnesota Timberwolves (-250) vs. Orlando Magic (+210)
- Indiana Pacers (+115) vs. Charlotte Hornets (-135)
- Golden State Warriors (-115) vs. Phoenix Suns (-105)
- New York Knicks (+140) vs. Denver Nuggets (-165)
Wednesday’s NBA Best Bets
- Moneyline: Warriors vs. Suns (-104 via FanDuel)
- Spread: Celtics -2.5 (-115 via DraftKings) vs. Hawks
- Total: Knicks-Nuggets Over 226 (-110 via DraftKings)
- Upset: Heat vs. Raptors (+102 via FanDuel)
- Prop bet: LaMelo Ball Under 22.5 Points (-120 via FanDuel)
Wednesday's NBA Top Picks
Moneyline: Suns (-104) ★★★★
The marquee matchup in the NBA on Wednesday takes place out west between the Warriors and Suns. Though both sides have arguably underperformed in the early stages of the season, Golden State has been more prominently troublesome, opening with a 6-8 record and sitting in 11th in the Western Conference standings.
The struggles of the Warriors have come primarily on the defensive end this year. Though the Warriors have averaged 117.4 PPG (3rd in NBA) this season, their defensive efficiency ranks 23rd in the league. Allowing gaudy point totals to mediocre offensive opponents like Orlando and Sacramento has landed the Dubs several unexpected losses.
That style of shootout basketball simply won’t succeed against a team as disciplined defensively as the Suns. The Suns have an elite offensive efficiency rating and allow just 103.8 PPG at home. They defeated the Warriors 134-105 in Phoenix in the only other meeting between the sides this season.
Spread: Celtics -2.5 (-115) ★★★
The Celtics have rattled off seven consecutive wins and have covered this 2.5-point margin in each game of that streak. Boston has scored an average of 123.8 points across the seven wins, with Jayson Tatum leading the way.
Tatum has not scored fewer than 26 points in any game this month, and he’s cleared 30+ points five times in November. Boston has the top offensive efficiency in the NBA this season, and it will need adept scoring ability on Wednesday against a Hawks team that ranks seventh in the league in defensive efficiency.
Boston’s recent play offensively has been electric, home and on the road. I look for Tatum to lead the charge again Wednesday night. DraftKings offers the preferred line (-2.5, -110) compared to FanDuel (-3, -108) if you’re betting Boston.
Total: Knicks-Nuggets Over 226 (-110) ★★★★
An impressive offensive performance by the Knicks on Tuesday in Utah scored New York a 118-111 win over the Jazz. The Over is 1-0 on the second night of a back-to-back involving the Knicks, and Wednesday night would be a natural moment for New York to have a letdown defensively.
The Nuggets are the No. 2 team in the NBA in offensive efficiency this season and should have little trouble scoring against the tired legs of the Knicks. The Nuggets average the fifth-most points per game in the league this season at 117.1.
The season-long trends don’t align with this pick, as the Over is below .500 in both Denver home games and Knicks road games. But this number feels low, as 9-of-13 Nuggets games and 10-of-14 Knicks games have cleared it this season. A potent Denver offense and a Knicks group shooting well recently should lead to ample scoring opportunities against two defensive efficiencies ranked outside the top 20 in the league this season.
Upset: Raptors (+102) ★★★
This feels like a game in which the Raptors should be favored over the Heat, given the respective home-road trends of the two teams. Toronto has only served as a home underdog once this season and won the game outright. Overall at home, the Raptors are 5-1 outright this year, giving them the seventh-best home winning percentage in the NBA.
Though the Heat enter Wednesday riding a three-game winning streak, those Ws all came at home. Miami has played fewer road games than any other team in the NBA to this point in the season and has fared poorly in those outings at just 1-3 outright. Miami is also 1-3 ATS in away games, including 1-2 as an away favorite.
The odds on the 1.5-point home underdog pulling off the outright win are slightly more worthwhile at FanDuel (+102) than the even-money offering at DraftKings.
Prop bet: Ball Under 22.5 points (-120) ★★★★
Indiana has offered some of the worst defensive play in the league this season (27th in defensive efficiency) and the Pacers could be without point guard Tyrese Haliburton Wednesday due to an ankle sprain. However, I’m not predicting an absent or limited Haliburton leads to an explosive performance from the point guard on the other side.
Hornets’ point guard LaMelo Ball is finally back in action after an injury, but he hasn’t been especially effective in scoring the ball yet. Ball has compiled scoring totals of 15 and 17 in his first two games of the year. Though Ball’s extended absence likely relates to Charlotte’s 29th-ranked offensive efficiency as a team, it’s hard to ignore that this hasn’t been an effective team in scoring.
Clearly, the sportsbooks expect that trend to improve Wednesday, as the Hornets’ team total sits at 117.5, handily higher than Charlotte’s 108.9 PPG scoring average on the season. But Ball still appears a bit rusty after his delayed start to the campaign, so I’m not counting on Wednesday as the night he bursts onto the scene and integrates into the season.
Where to Bet on NBA Best Bets
Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:
Wednesday's NBA best bets from 11/16/2022 at 12:20 p.m. ET.
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