NASCAR Cup Series Picks and 2022 Futures Market Preview: Bets to Make Before Daytona 500

The 64th running of The Great American Race will kick off the 2022 NASCAR season. As Kyle Larson begins his defense of the 2021 NASCAR Cup, Daytona International Speedway hosts the Daytona 500. We examine the NASCAR futures market with our top cup picks.

Kyle Larson, who was suspended by Chip Ganassi Racing in 2020, returned to NASCAR in 2021 as a member of Hendrick Motorsports. Larson took the checkered flag in only his fourth start with his new team and won his first race in his new No. 5 car in Las Vegas.

Larson's performance throughout the remainder of the season was truly impressive. He won 10 races in all, and four of the final five in his first year with Hendrick Motorsports en route to winning his first NASCAR Cup.

When it comes to betting on the NASCAR Cup, it is all about creating value for yourself heading into the final race at Phoenix Raceway. NASCAR playoffs work as follows: they begin with 16 and then gradually limit the field to 12, 8, and then a final four.

The final four then participate in one final race at Phoenix Raceway, and the winner is the NASCAR Cup champion. The purpose of taking out futures on the championship race early is to set yourself up with more favorable odds on the favorite than if you had placed your wager just before the final race.

The favorite among the final four usually has odds of around +200 to +250. Last year, Larson was even shorter at around +175, but that's not the norm for the final race.

There are a couple of things to consider when looking for value in the NASCAR futures market. First, will this driver's odds only get shorter? Second, do you believe that this driver has the potential to become the favorite in the final race? Finally, can this driver win a race at Phoenix Raceway?

In advance of the 64th running of the Daytona 500, we examine the early numbers in the NASCAR Cup futures market.

NASCAR Cup Futures Odds

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NASCAR Cup Futures Picks

Joey Logano, #22, Team Penske Ford

I believe Joey Logano is the most attractive longshot on the board for the NASCAR Cup at +1600. He won the title in 2018, so you know he has what it takes to succeed. Even though 2021 was not his finest season, he finished much stronger than he started.

It is also imperative to take into account Logano's success at Phoenix Raceway when backing him. He won there in March 2020, and no driver has led more laps at Phoenix Raceway than Logano's 421.

Logano also checks the box if the intent is to purchase a driver at inflated odds who can reach the final four. He has reached the final four in three of the last six seasons.

I believe Logano possesses all the qualities we seek in a driver this early in the season. Since he already won the Clash at The Coliseum, his +1600 odds are more likely to shorten. His previous success at Phoenix Raceway will shorten his odds in the final race and if he makes it, he will be able to win outright.

In the immediate aftermath of Logano's victory at the Los Angeles Coliseum, I purchased futures tickets for him to win the NASCAR Cup Championship in 2022.

https://twitter.com/TheAthletic/status/1490491281687990273

Recommendation: BuyBest Price: +1600 via Caesars Sportsbook

Denny Hamlin, #11, Joe Gibbs Racing

The price of Denny Hamlin for the NASCAR Cup is almost right at that sweet spot where you might consider buying him. His highest price is at PointsBet where he is +750, and he is someone I am interested in adding to my portfolio.

NASCAR is not a sport of longshots, so you are unlikely to bet on a driver at +5000 and expect him to become the favorite. The +750 is not quite where I want it to be, so I have added Hamlin to my watchlist. If his price rises above +900 early in the season, I would immediately move him into a buy position.

In addition to waiting for a better price on Hamlin, you should keep in mind that he is very strong at Daytona International Speedway. He has won the Daytona 500 three times. Waiting to buy his futures price could mean you are rolling the dice that his number will get shorter, but that is the nature of futures betting.

Adding Hamlin to the portfolio is also a smart move considering he has been to three straight championship races and won a race at Phoenix Raceway during his career.

The recommendation for Hamlin is a watchlist for the moment, but if you are able to find +900, the recommendation changes to a buy.

Recommendation: WatchlistBest Price: +750 via PointsBet

Kyle Larson, #5, Hendrick Motorsports

As the reigning champion, Kyle Larson dominated the 2021 season, but his price point is too short. The longest number on him is provided by DraftKings at +360; however, this number is still too short.

No matter how dominant you are, anything can happen in a race. It is likely that Martin Truex Jr., would have won the championship if it weren't for a late caution in last year's race.

Truex was +350 to win last year's championship race as one of the final four. If you buy Larson right now at +360, what exactly are you gaining?

Larson is a wager we are considering adding to our portfolio eventually, but we will have to wait for a better price before doing so.

Additionally, the +250 posted at Caesars is absurd. There is a very real possibility that Larson will compete in the championship race, and his odds will be at the exact same price right before the final race.

https://twitter.com/TeamHendrick/status/1493745825310195713

Recommendation: SellBest Price: +360 via DraftKings Sportsbook

Where to Bet on the NASCAR Cup

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks for odds boosts:

FanDuel SportsbookCaesars SportsbookDraftKings SportsbookPointsBetBetMGM

SEE ALSO: All picks, odds, and sports betting news. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

Picks made on 2/16/2022 at 2:22 p.m. ET.