The final Grand Slam of the year begins in New York for the US Open. Read on for our ATP US Open men's tournament picks.
The men’s side of the US Open is as wide-open as it’s been in 20 years. With Novak Djokovic back home in Serbia due to the United States travel laws, top seed and World No. 1 Daniil Medvedev is the odds-on favorite to repeat as champion with Rafael Nadal lurking as well.
Considering Nadal’s barely played in the last two months and with Alexander Zverev still recovering from injury, there is so much value on the board. Let’s get into just who those players are.
Here are my outright picks for the ATP Tour’s US Open Tennis Tournament in Queens, New York (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook).
US Open Tennis Tournament Picks
US Open Tennis Tournament Predictions
There’s not much in the way of Medvedev repeating as US Open champion. The Russian is the best and most in-form player in the draw right now, and one who has a relatively easy draw to work in his favor.
There’s a potential trouble spot in the fourth round when Medvedev is projected to face Nick Kyrgios. Still, even with his losses to Kyrgios at the ATP 500 level, he did defeat him back in January at the Australian Open. That stands to be Medvedev’s toughest test; you’d surely favor him over Carlos Alcaraz and an out-of-form Nadal.
These are very fast courts, which we’ll highlight in a minute, and those are exactly where Medvedev and his pushing style feel right at home. We’ve seen him struggle this season on slower hardcourts, which is to be expected.
So, what if Kyrgios beats Medvedev here? It’s not unfathomable, considering Kyrgios — who was coming off the proverbial couch to play this year’s Australian Open — had break points to take his match with Medvedev five sets. He beat him quite easily in Washington, D.C. this season with a serve-and-volley technique that rattled the World No. 1, who loves to return from deep in the court.
Kyrgios is still, undoubtedly, one of the five best players in the world right now. His serve is one of the three or four biggest on tour and should be untouchable on these very quick hardcourts. He’s hardly put a foot wrong this season, keeping his cool (for the most part) and even proving he has the fitness for best-of-five tennis with his trip to the Wimbledon final.
If Medvedev isn’t going to win this tournament, the winner could very easily be Kyrgios.
Now it’s time for the long shots. Fritz has a much better chance than the odds would indicate here given the type of season he’s had. He’s cemented himself as a top-15 player in the world with his massive serve and forehand, and improved rally tolerance has led him to new heights.
Fritz has a Masters 1000 title under his belt now and really should have gone to the Wimbledon semifinals if not for a heroic performance from Nadal and a rare bout with nerves. The American has flirted with a career-defining win in best-of-five and hasn’t quite gotten there yet, but all the experience in defeat will eventually help him reach new heights.
Berrettini is 21-8 this season. Just about every time people have written him off, he’s come back and proved everyone wrong. He was dealing with what seemed to be a troublesome hand injury earlier this season only to return and win back-to-back grass court tournaments.
Yes, this isn’t grass — but it’s not too far off. Berrettini made a name for himself here at the US Open with a run to the semifinals a few years ago and was a semifinalist in Australia the last time we had a Grand Slam.
He’s been one of the hardest players to take out at Slams in the last three years and has repeatedly gone deep. These odds are disrespectful, and I do think he’s positioned perfectly in the draw with Stefanos Tstisipas’ struggles on fast surfaces sure to haunt him.
Where to Bet on the ATP US Open
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US Open picks made on 8/27/2022 at 2:35 p.m. ET.