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Brewers vs. Diamondbacks MLB Picks: Arizona Looks to Shake Off Ugly Loss

Sarah Griffin

Last Updated: September 19, 2022 2:36 PM EDT • 3 min 13 sec read.

Merrill Kelly of the Arizona Diamondbacks reacts after the final out of the seventh inning against the San Francisco Giants at Oracle Park.
Merrill Kelly of the Arizona Diamondbacks reacts after the final out of the seventh inning against the San Francisco Giants at Oracle Park. Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images via AFP.

The Milwaukee Brewers and Arizona Diamondbacks open a four-game series at Chase Field Thursday and we break it down with our top MLB picks.

The Brewers took six of seven games against the Diamondbacks last season, including two of the three in Phoenix. On the road this year and especially against teams under .500, things have not been so great for the Brewers. They’ve had multiple chances to gain ground in the wild-card race with recent road series against the Pittsburgh Pirates and Chicago Cubs, both teams under .500, and failed to win either three-game set. Through their first 14 games in August against teams with a losing record, the Brewers went 5-9. 

While the Diamondbacks' wild-card hopes are pretty dim, Arizona did bring itself within 9.5 games of the final wild-card spot thanks to a five-game win streak that was snapped Wednesday in their 18-2 loss to the Philadelphia Phillies. 

The Diamondbacks won six of their last eight games, while the Brewers have lost 10 of their last 13 road games. 

Here are my MLB picks and predictions for Thursday’s game between the Brewers and Diamondbacks (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, and DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 scale).

Brewers vs. Diamondbacks Game Info

Date/Time: Thursday, Sept. 1, 9:40 p.m. ET 
Location: Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ
Weather: Indoors

Brewers vs. Diamondbacks Odds Analysis

The Brewers are the moneyline favorites, ranging from -134 at FanDuel to -135 at DraftKings and BetMGM. Milwaukee has drawn 82% of the betting handle but the underdog Diamondbacks have are backed by 56% of the tickets.

The total is set at 7.5 at all major sportsbooks. The public and sharps disagree again with 75% of the money on the Under but 84% of bet slips on the Over.

Brewers vs. Diamondbacks Projected Pitchers

RHP Brandon Woodruff (9-3, 3.31 ERA, 1.13 WHIP) vs. RHP Merrill Kelly (11-5, 2.97 ERA, 1.13 WHIP)

Woodruff is having another solid season for Milwaukee. While he been credited a decision through five starts in August, the Brewers are 4-1 in those games. In his most recent game against the Cubs, Woodruff tossed six scoreless innings with 10 strikeouts against one walk. Woodruff hasn’t given up more than three earned runs in 14 straight starts. 

Kelly gets the start for the Diamondbacks in what will be his 27th appearance of the year. Kelly hasn’t been charged with a loss since June 24 and has only been getting better of late. In his last 15 games, he’s 7-2 with a 2.55 ERA and 86 strikeouts while allowing just 72 hits, 28 earned runs and 24 walks for a 0.97 WHIP across 98 2/3 innings pitched. Those numbers improve across his last seven outings.

Brewers vs. Diamondbacks Picks

Milar I91

Brewers vs. Diamondbacks ML Pick

Diamondbacks (+115) ★★★

Despite the blowout 18-2 loss to the Phillies last night, the Diamondbacks have been on a bit of a run. They’re 14-9 in their last 23 games and won six of their last eight. Kelly’s been their best and most consistent starter this season and as is reflected in his 11-5 record.

Even more so, the Brewers have been in quite the recent lull and as I said struggle big time against teams under .500. In what should be chances for them to gain ground in the wild-card race, instead they’ve fallen flat. Woodruff’s also his team’s most consistent and best starter this season, but he also hasn’t gotten a decision in his last five starts.

The Brewers offense has also been very quiet aside from a small stretch from Saturday to Monday this past week. They were held to three or fewer runs in 10 of their last 26 games, which doesn’t bode well with Kelly on the mound.

On top of all that, the Brewers haven’t played well on the road lately. Yet again this is chalked up to be a “get right” series for Milwaukee, which is setting standards the Brewers can’t seem to meet. That's why I’m taking the Diamondbacks at +115.

Brewers vs. Diamondbacks O/U Pick

Under 7.5 (-120) ★★

This was a bit of a tossup given the offensive explosions we’ve seen from Arizona lately, whether it’s from their lineup or their opponent. Nine of their last 10 games hit a combined total of at least eight runs, and in four of their last five, one team scored double-digit runs. 

That said, this is likely the best starting pitching matchup we’ll see in this four-game series and given the K/9 rate of both these starters and their abilities to go at least six innings, I’m taking the Under.

Brewers vs. Diamondbacks Prop Pick

Woodruff Over 7 strikeouts (+112) ★★★

Woodruff has a K/9 of 10.9. The Diamondbacks have a collective team average strikeout rate of 21.7%, and Woodruff’s coming off a 10-strikeout game versus the Cubs in just six innings. 

If Woodruff can go at least six frames again, he can top seven strikeouts against this Arizona lineup.

Where to Bet on Brewers-Diamondbacks Picks

FanDuel Sportsbook
Caesars Sportsbook
DraftKings Sportsbook
PointsBet
BetMGM

SEE ALSO: All picks, odds, and sports betting news. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

Brewers-Diamondbacks picks made on 9/1/2022 at 10:59 p.m. ET.

Written By:
Sarah Griffin
Sarah Griffin is a writer for Sportsbook Review, the Premier Lacrosse League, and Lacrosse Flash. She works in digital content for the NHL and has a passion for lacrosse, hockey, and baseball. She’s a lifelong Boston sports fan and the number one Cale Makar stan (self-appointed).