Utah State vs. San Diego State Week 14 Picks: Aztecs Favored to Win Mountain West at Home

For the first time, Utah State and San Diego State will meet in the Mountain West Conference title game Saturday afternoon outside Los Angeles.

San Diego State, ranked No. 19 in the latest AP Poll, is in the conference title game for the third time and won the previous two trips in 2015 and 2016. Utah State is in the game for a second time after losing in 2013.

The championship game will be held in the temporary home of the Aztecs. San Diego State has been playing in a soccer stadium outside Los Angeles while new Aztec Stadium is under construction.

SDSU leads the all-time series with Utah State 13-2 and won the last meeting in the 2020 regular season, 38-7 in Logan, Utah.

Here are my picks and predictions for the Mountain West Championship Game matchup between Utah State and San Diego State (Odds via DraftKings; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 star scale).

Utah State vs. San Diego State Game Info

Date/Time: Saturday, Dec. 4, 3 p.m. ETTV: FOXLocation: Dignity Health Sports Park, Carson, CAWeather: Partly cloudy skies

Utah State vs. San Diego State Odds Analysis

Interestingly, this spread already has risen from Aztecs at -3.5 to -5. At home this season, San Diego State is 4-3 against the spread. Utah State has one of the best road ATS marks in the country at 5-1. That ATS loss was as a 7-point favorite in mid-October at UNLV, in a 28-24 victory.

The total has dropped a half-point from its opening to 50. When the teams last played in 2020, the total was a minuscule 40.5.

Utah State vs. San Diego State Picks

San Diego State -5 (-110) ???Under 50 (-110) ???

SEE ALSO: College Football Week 14 Parlay Picks

Utah State vs. San Diego State Predictions

San Diego State -5 (-110)

Should San Diego State win this game to improve to 12-1, it certainly could make an argument for a New Year's Six Bowl - the lone loss was against a good Fresno State team. But too many other Group of Five schools are ahead of the Aztecs in the College Football Playoff rankings.

Coach Brady Hoke's Aztecs punched their ticket to this game and won the West Division of the Mountain West with a 27-16 victory last Friday over Boise State.

QB Lucas Johnson suffered a knee injury midway through the second quarter and was replaced by Jordon Brookshire (Johnson had replaced a struggling Brookshire as the starter earlier in the season). Brookshire finished 11-for-15 for 192 yards with a TD and a rushing score. I would imagine Brookshire has earned the start here as there has yet to be an update on Johnson's injury.

Utah State won the Mountain Division with a 35-10 victory at New Mexico last Friday. The Aggies and Air Force finished tied at 6-2 in league play but USU won the head-to-head matchup.

San Diego State is 7-3 against the spread in its past 10 as a home favorite. Utah State is 2-5 ATS in its past seven versus teams with a winning record.

Under 50 (-110)

San Diego State is one of the best defensive teams in the country, allowing just 17.3 points per game. After allowing Boise State to roll up 248 yards in the first half, the Broncos were limited to 71 yards over the final two quarters last week. Boise State entered averaging 30.4 points but was held to its lowest point total since the 2019 Las Vegas Bowl. SDSU won its seventh straight game when not committing a turnover and is 9-0 all-time under Hoke when not committing a turnover.

Hoke wants to play ball-control offense with running back Greg Bell ideally the focal point of the offense. The Aztecs have won 12 straight (7-0 this year) when allowing 17 points or less.

Utah State averages 32.2 points per game behind QB Logan Bonner and star receiver Deven Thompkins. Bonner has thrown for 3,242 yards and 32 touchdowns and Thompkins leads the country with 1,543 yards on 87 catches and nine TDs. Bonner tied a school record with five TD throws last week against New Mexico. It was the fifth time this year and seventh time in his career that he has thrown four touchdowns in a game.

Utah State is averaging 457.1 yards per game. The Aggies' eight-game improvement from last season is tied for the second-best turnaround in the nation.

USU is 5-63 all-time against AP-ranked teams. It will be the first time that Utah State is playing a nationally ranked San Diego State team.

In our Utah State versus San Diego State picks, I see the Aztecs controlling the tempo and clock, double-teaming Thompkins all day, and keeping Bonner off the field.

The Under is 5-2 in Utah State's past seven on the road. It's 22-8-1 in San Diego State's past 31 conference games.

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Utah State-San Diego State picks made 11/29/2021 at 6:31 p.m. ET