USC vs. California Week 14 Picks: Will Cal Snap its Losing Streak Against Trojans?

The 4-7 Trojans face off against the 4-7 California Bears late Saturday night. The Trojans have won nine of their last 10 meetings with the Bears. Let's dive deep into the betting angles in our USC-California picks.

The biggest storyline around the USC Trojans isn't tied to this game after their shocking hire of Lincoln Riley from Oklahoma. There will be more energy around the program than what we've seen in years. But that won't materialize until 2022.

This Week 14 matchup between two 4-7 teams comes with a fascinating set of trends as the Trojans and Cal Bears battle for pride on championship weekend.

Here are my picks and predictions for the college football USC-California Week 14 matchup (odds via BetMGM, and pick confidence is based on a one-to-five star scale).

USC-California Game Info

Date: December 4, 2021 at 11:00 p.m. ETTV: FS1Location: California Memorial StadiumWeather: Partially cloudy, 61 degrees at kickoff

USC-California Odds Analysis

The line has shifted considerably, with the public continuing to sour on the Trojans. The Bears were originally 1.5-point favorites, but that's swelled to four points. Giving either team that edge appears to be a major mistake based on track records.

The total has moved even more while bouncing from 52.5 to a whopping 58, one of the most significant increases this season. Either the public is horribly wrong, or oddsmakers completely misjudged this line.

USC-California Picks

USC +4 (-110) ????Under 58.5 (-110) ????

SEE ALSO: Week 14 College Football Parlay Picks

USC-California Predictions

USC +4 (-110)

Both teams are below average for a few reasons. USC completely tanked at the end of its season while losing five of six games. Worse, the school suffered a two-score loss in all but one of its defeats this year. The Trojans' offense hasn't been producing much on the ground, and the unit's inability to score is a direct reflection of Kedon Slovis lacking high-end talent.

The program's defense has been a bigger issue while ranking 94th in scoring, 97th against the rush, and giving up the 17th-most yards per play. The undisciplined group hemorrhaged points all season. Even Cal's awful offense may produce a handful of scoring drives against USC.

However, USC maintains a real chance of not only covering but winning due to Cal's own issues finishing on offense. The Bears can't score in the red zone, and they lack impact players throughout the roster. They'll solely rely on their defense to win the field-position battle.

Lean toward USC covering because of the value, and the energy around the program with Riley arriving soon.

Under 58.5 (-110)

Pessimism regarding USC's defense and its ability to slow any team is understandable, but Cal isn't the squad to make the total go Over. Chase Garber will take what USC gives him on short throws, but he can't push the ball downfield. And although the Bears' rushing offense is effective, it will control the clock enough to limit possessions.

Meanwhile, USC will struggle a bit to produce scoring drives. The Trojans are more reliant on big plays, and they won't try to wear down the physical Bears' defense. That will lead to this swelling total going Under.

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USC-California Picks made 11/30/2021 at 12:39 a.m. ET