SMU vs. Florida State Prediction: Week 1 Odds, Picks & Best Bet
It feels like we’re dangerously close to the end of the Mike Norvell era at Florida State, and a bad loss at home to SMU could be the final nail in the coffin. My SMU vs. Florida State prediction wonders if Norvell is simply a dead man walking at this point.
No. 19 SMU is a 3-point betting favorite on the road, with the action kicking off from Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee, Fla., Monday at 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN).
🏈 SMU vs. Florida State picks & predictions
See the latest college football odds and our college football picks.
| Pick | Bet size |
|---|---|
| SMU -3 (-105 via DraftKings) | 1 unit |
| Under 53.5 (-115 via FanDuel) | 1 unit |
Total wagered: 2 units | Max profit: +1.82 units
💰 SMU vs. Florida State prediction & best bet
Want more college football betting advice? Check out all of our college football analysis and expert predictions.
SMU -3 (-105 via DraftKings)
Florida State struggled to pull away from New Mexico State in its Week 0 opener, and I’m not sure the Seminoles are consistent enough across the board to handle what an experienced SMU QB and coaching staff will throw at them.
Returning SMU gunslinger Kevin Jennings will certainly pose more of a threat than the one Florida State endured from NMSU’s Trey Hedden -- yet, Hedden threw for 272 yards on the Seminole secondary.
FSU QB Ashton Daniels has tools, but has never demonstrated consistency in running a high-caliber Power Four offense. He looked pedestrian last week, and his mistakes could be costly against the ballhawking defensive scheme of the Mustangs.
The spread at FanDuel is down to SMU -2.5, but we’re not overly interested in the inflated odds at -122. DraftKings has the line sticking at the key number of -3, with -105 odds. If we get the -2.5 line to odds at -115 or better, we’ll be happy to take that number, but for now, we’re comfortably playing SMU -3 at DraftKings in a game we don’t expect to be close.
This is the line that Philip Wood kicked off his SMU vs. Florida State parlay with, too.
📡 SBR Edge
SMU averaged 2.1 takeaways per game last season, tied for fifth-most in FBS.
Ashton Daniels’ recklessness will be a problem for FSU
Ashton Daniels is turnover prone, with 23 career collegiate interceptions thrown compared to just 25 touchdown passes. Though he didn’t fumble in the opener, he threw one pick and has a history of putting the ball on the turf.
His legs are necessary to propel the Florida State offense forward, but he doesn’t take care of the ball well enough to be trusted as a rushing weapon against SMU’s defense that ranked near the top of the nation in takeaways last season.
Score prediction: SMU 30, Florida State 17
📊 SMU vs. Florida State odds
SMU vs. Florida State opening odds
- Moneyline: SMU -130 | Florida State +110
- Spread: SMU -1.5 (-115) | Florida State +1.5 (-105)
- Over/Under: Over 53.5 (-110) | Under 53.5 (-110)
📺 How to watch SMU vs. Florida State: Week 1
- Date: Monday, Sept. 7
- Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Doak Campbell Stadium (Tallahassee, Fla.)
- TV: ESPN
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