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Nevada vs. New Mexico State Week 0 College Football Picks: Wolf Pack and Aggies Kick Off 2022 Season

Philip Wood

Last Updated: August 31, 2022 3:52 PM EDT • 3 min 13 sec read.

J.J Dervil #5 of the New Mexico State Aggies celebrates after intercepting a pass against the Kentucky Wildcats. Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images via AFP.

Both the Nevada Wolf Pack and New Mexico State Aggies are looking at rebuilding years in 2022, but who has the advantage in the opening game of the season? We dive into the Nevada-New Mexico State matchup with our top college football picks for Week 0.

When these two teams met a season ago, Nevada quarterback Carson Strong threw six touchdown passes to help lead the Wolf Pack to the 55-28 victory. Just one season later, the game plan for both teams couldn’t be further from what it was last time. Each with new head coaches, it seems that the approach for both teams will be to run the ball to try to grind out wins in 2022.

The Wolf Pack will look to Nate Cox to take over at QB, while the Aggies will have Diego Pavia under center. Last season, New Mexico went just 2-10, but it did manage to score some points with quarterback Jonah Johnson at the helm. Defensively, however, they were very bad, giving up 40 or more points in five games.

Here are our Nevada-New Mexico State college football picks for Week 0 (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook).

Nevada vs. New Mexico State Game Info

Date/Time: Saturday, Aug. 27, 10 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN2
Location: Aggie Memorial Stadium, Las Cruces, NM
Weather: 68 degrees, 25% chance of precipitation, 7-mph winds

Nevada vs. New Mexico State Odds Analysis

There has been a lot of pregame movement for this one. The Wolf Pack opened as 14-point favorites, but that number has dropped significantly to 9 points at most of our top-rated sportsbooks. Seventy-three percent of the cash is on New Mexico State to cover.

The total now rests around 50 on most major sportsbooks, after it opened at 55. Ninety-two percent of the cash is currently on the Under.

Nevada vs. New Mexico State Picks

Nev Nms 827

Nevada vs. New Mexico State Week 0 Predictions

New Mexico State +9.5 (-110)

The Aggies are the popular pick for Saturday's season-opener, and with good reason. Though the Wolf Pack have dominated the Aggies in recent seasons, they are a different team this year. Nevada lost a lot to the transfer portal, and it will take a week or two for the new-look roster to figure out how to play together. 

Both teams will want to run the ball, and if the Aggies can get something going early, they may be able to tire out a Nevada defense that does not have the depth it had last season. This doesn’t mean the Aggies are going to win, it just means that they should be able to keep this a one-score game for most of it.

If the Wolf Pack had a quarterback like Strong still under center, then the play would absolutely be Nevada, because once a team goes up on New Mexico State this season, it’s going to be hard for the Aggies to come back. But with a question mark at quarterback, the Wolf Pack will struggle to pull away in Week 0.

Nevada vs. New Mexico State O/U Pick

Over 50.5 (-110)

The Over hit seven times in the last 10 head-to-head meetings, with two of the games having no line. The only time the total didn’t go over was in 2010 when the Wolf Pack defeated the Aggies 52-6, and the total was set at 61.5. 

Of course, in past seasons, the Wolf Pack were a pass-happy team, and they were generally in control of what was taking place on the field. This year they will be looking to run the ball, and so will the Aggies. While this will keep the clock moving, it may not actually slow down the production of either offense. 

Both teams will look to wear down defenses that are just getting into shape, which means both teams will be playing with tempo. Three and four-yard runs will not be fun to watch as you root for more than seven touchdowns to be scored, but with some big plays, this game should get into the 50s. Just like nearly every other game between these two teams since 2000.

Nevada vs. New Mexico State Prop

New Mexico State Over 27.5 (+320)

There is very little value in taking Nevada to go Over any reasonable point total. While those who think this game will play to the Under may be jumping all over the Wolf Pack Under 24.5 at +200, there is more value in picking the Aggies to score some points. 

The Nevada front seven looks much different than it did a year ago, which could be exactly what the Aggies need to find success in the trenches and maintain possession. New Mexico State should have no trouble moving the ball, so ultimately, it will come down to whether the Aggies can score touchdowns or settle for field goals.

This number is absolutely within reach for New Mexico State, which makes it's a nice low-risk, high-reward play to better than triple your investment.

Where to Bet on Nevada-New Mexico State Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

FanDuel Sportsbook
Caesars Sportsbook
DraftKings Sportsbook
PointsBet
BetMGM

SEE ALSO: All picks, odds, and sports betting news. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

Nevada vs New Mexico State picks made 8/22/2022 at 4:25 p.m. ET.

Written By:
Philip Wood
Phil is a Sports Betting Analyst for Sportsbook Review and BettingPros.com, specializing in NFL and college football. He previously covered college football and college basketball for CanesInsight.com, where he also hosted the College Football Pick 'Em podcast. Phil is always looking for value, especially on lines that just seem too good to be true. His belief is if a line doesn't make sense, just assume that Vegas knows something you don't. An alumnus of The U, Phil always holds out hope that the next head coach will be the one who turns the football program around. Some would call him a frontrunner for his love of the Yankees and the Celtics, but he's also a diehard Detroit Lions fan and will never forgive the refs for the blown pass interference call against the Cowboys in 2015.