The College Football Playoff National Championship will be a rematch of the SEC Championship Game, pitting Alabama against Georgia. Will the Bulldogs make the necessary adjustments to knock off their conference rivals? Read on for our Georgia-Alabama picks.
A highly anticipated all-SEC matchup between Alabama and Georgia will serve as the CFP championship for the second time in five years. Georgia is still favored to win the rematch between the two conference foes, but Alabama is getting all of the love in the betting market.
Such a development should have been expected after the Tide handed the Bulldogs their only loss this season, a decisive 41-24 scoreline in the SEC Championship.
Here are my picks and predictions for the National Championship between Georgia and Alabama (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a one-to-five star scale).
Georgia vs. Alabama Game Info
Date/Time: Monday, Jan. 10, 8 p.m. ET
Location: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
Georgia vs. Alabama Odds Analysis
The spread has fluctuated all week between -2.5 and -3 in favour of Georgia. It currently sits at -2.5 and such sportsbooks as Caesars, Circa, and Pinnacle, while DraftKings still has it at -3.
While the Bulldogs remain the favorites to win their first championship in 41 years, 80% of the sharp money and 70% of the public money is riding the Tide.
At BetMGM, the betting money is even more in favor of Alabama.
The total has held steady at 52 points for two of the highest-scoring teams in the country.
The O/U for the SEC Championship was set at 48.5 and both teams nearly cleared that mark by halftime. The final score saw a healthy 65 points.
Georgia Betting Preview
Record: 13-1 S/U, 9-5 ATS, 6-8 O/U
Key Players: QB Stetson Bennett, RB Zamir White, RB James Cook, TE Brock Bowers, LB Nakobe Dean
Notable Trend: Georgia coach Kirby Smart is 0-4 facing Alabama coach and former boss Nick Saban
Bowl History: 34-21-3 all-time record; 2020: Defeated Cincinnati 24-21 in Peach Bowl
Georgia reminded the general public just how dominant a season it's been for the Bulldogs as they thrashed Michigan 34-11 in the CFP semifinals. The game was over by halftime when Georgia carried a 27-3 lead. Quarterback Stetson Bennett finished with 313 passing yards and three touchdowns and the Bulldogs' second-ranked defense held the Wolverines' vaunted running game to just 91 yards.
It was nothing out of the ordinary for this season's edition of the Bulldogs, as each of their wins — except the season opener — have been by a margin of at least 17 points.
Now they get the chance to avenge their only loss of the season to Alabama in the SEC Championship.
SEE ALSO: Georgia vs. Alabama Trends to Know
Alabama Betting Preview
Record: 13-1, 8-6 ATS, 7-7 O/U
Key Players: QB Bryce Young, RB Brian Robinson Jr., WR Jameson Williams, LB Will Anderson Jr., LB Henry To'oTo'o
Notable Trend: The Over is 4-0-1 in Alabama's last five National Championship appearances
Bowl History: 45-26-3 all-time record; 2020: Defeated Notre Dame 31-14 in Rose Bowl, Defeated Ohio State 52-24 in National Championship
The Tide are looking to become back-to-back champions for the first time since 2011-2012.
Despite some scares from Florida, Arkansas, and Auburn, Alabama has rounded back into title-winning form. The perennial powers easily dispatched Group of Five entrant Cincinnati in the Cotton Bowl behind Brian Robinson's 204-yard rushing day.
Georgia vs. Alabama Picks
Alabama (+125) ★★★★
Under 52.5 (-115) ★★★
Georgia team total Under 26.5 (+102) ★★★★
Slade Bolden anytime TD (+190) ★★
Alabama +2.5 & Under 52.5 (+270) ★★★
SEE ALSO: Bold Predictions for Georgia vs. Alabama
Georgia vs. Alabama Predictions
Like the betting public, we like the Tide to continue to have the upper hand on their rival and are betting on an Alabama outright victory.
Georgia coach Kirby Smart has struggled in his head-to-head matchups with Alabama legend Nick Saban. Smart is 0-4 against his mentor and we have little faith that he's made the necessary adjustments in five weeks' time to reverse what was a 17-point loss in their December meeting.
We relish the opportunity to take the Tide as a betting underdog in a national championship game. Saban is 7-2 in such games and those two defeats came to Deshaun Watson and Trevor Lawrence-led Clemson teams.
Alabama has won its last seven head-to-head meetings with Georgia.
Under 52.5 (-115)
The Over/Under has gone up half a point at FanDuel and we're still willing to bet the Under.
As previously laid out, though both teams have top-10 scoring offenses, the defenses also rank in the top 20 in points allowed.
The SEC Championship was a 65-point shootout, but with even more on the line Monday, expect both veteran coaches to lean on their stout defenses.
The last time Alabama and Georgia met for the national championship in 2018, they played to a 26-23 overtime final.
Georgia team total Under 26.5 (+102)
We still love the odds being provided on this team total prop. The Bulldogs were held to 24 points in the previous matchup and we're expecting the rematch to be more of a slugfest than a shootout.
Alabama has allowed more than 24 points just once in its last eight games and Clemson was the only team to put up that kind of point total on the Tide in a national title game.
Slade Bolden anytime TD (+190)
I hope you got on those initial Brock Bowers anytime touchdown odds. The Georgia tight end opened at +100 to score even though he's reached the end zone six times in the last four games. His current touchdown odds now sit at -130 at FanDuel.
Though we still believe the odds are Bowers will score again against Alabama, as he did in the SEC title game, we'll turn our attention to another option.
With John Metchie III out for the national championship, another Alabama receiver will have to step up to support top target, Jameson Williams. In the Cotton Bowl victory over Cincinnati, Slade Bolden hauled in three grabs and an 8-yard touchdown. He currently owns +190 to find the end zone again, which is worth a stab in the dark.
Alabama +2.5 & Under 52.5 (+270)
FanDuel is offering a parlay on the spread and O/U. Considering Alabama's history in title games and that the team has been able to cover this spread in all but one game this season, this is a parlay we can be confident in.
Anticipating another Tide victory, the parlay provides an even more handsome payout than the moneyline to wrap up our Georgia-Alabama picks.
Georgia-Alabama picks made 1/7/2022 at 4:24 p.m. ET