World Cup Betting Watchdog Flags Suspicious Polymarket Wagers Amid FIFA Dispute

A dispute has broken out over how clean the betting on this summer's FIFA World Cup was, after a sports integrity organization publicly contradicted FIFA's own findings on betting irregularities during the tournament. 

The Group of Copenhagen reviewed all 104 matches and singled out 15 games for closer attention during the final stretch of group play. Using a color-coded scale that runs from green to red based on severity, the group issued seven "yellow" notices this year, a designation reserved for matches where several warning signs line up at once. So far, four of those seven cases have come to light publicly. 

One case centers on South African defender Temba Zwane, who was sent off with a red card during his team's opening match against Mexico. A second involves roughly $4.8 million in wagers placed on Polymarket that Spain would win its group stage matchup against Cape Verde, a game that finished scoreless. Another discrepancy raised was a three-minute VAR delay in Spain’s clash with Saudi Arabia.  

The findings also questioned the creation of a market on Polymarket on July 2, named “Will Folarin Balogun play against Belgium?” The report noted the inconsistency regarding the market, adding that no other market was created for the other 14 players who received red cards. Balogun was also the only player to have his red card suspended.  

Prior to the Group of Copenhagen’s report, FIFA’s Integrity Task Force released its own findings, stating that it had found no evidence of fixing or irregular wagering across the tournament. The Group of Copenhagen has since submitted a formal inquiry to FIFA, requesting an explanation of the circumstances surrounding one of the disputed red card calls. 

The disagreement surfaced as betting activity on platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi climbed to new highs throughout the tournament, intensifying calls for tighter oversight of prediction market apps during major sporting events. 

Sportsbooks say the tournament broke betting records

Prediction markets weren't alone in seeing unprecedented activity. The best sports betting sites licensed in the US also logged some of their strongest numbers ever during the tournament, with totals rivaling or beating out several marquee domestic sporting events. 

According to Caesars, the tournament pulled in more individual bets than the men's and women's NCAA basketball tournaments combined, along with a slightly higher overall handle. Measured against the 2022 World Cup, DraftKings reported a 650% jump in bets placed. 

BetMGM logged a 211% increase, growth that industry figures largely credit to mobile wagering now being legal in most states. 

The final between Argentina and Spain turned into the most wagered soccer match in the history of those sportsbooks, as well. DraftKings said it processed two million bets on the game, while Caesars brought in almost 65% more handle than the previous tournament record.  

Neil Warsh, Senior Vice President at Hard Rock Bet, even described the World Cup as the biggest betting event in US history, equating it to the value of "10 Super Bowls."