Novig Prediction Market Launch Tops Rivals' Debuts

Novig has entered the fray as a newly-launched prediction market operator, and the results from its opening week were resoundingly positive. 

Comparing its trading volume numbers with those of rival prediction market apps, the newest player in the space reportedly topped them all. According to figures reported to CNBC, the first week brought more than $125 million in volume. Parlay (or combination-style) contracts accounted for about one-third of all volume, with baseball leading as the top sport. 

After launching on Aug. 4, the company reported its largest single day as $26.3 million in volume. That's a notably strong amount given where we are in the 2026 sports landscape.

Co-founder and CEO Jacob Fortinsky spoke about the opening numbers in a LinkedIn post: "August is one of the slowest months on the sports calendar. And in our first week, Novig did $125M+ in trading volume. That’s especially meaningful when you consider we’re a 21+ platform, and intentionally not capturing the entire market."

It's a strong start in the battle against established prediction market operators such as Kalshi and Polymarket, but like its rivals, it hasn't been all smooth sailing for the newest player in town.

Lawsuits pile up

Novig launched in 2021 as a peer-to-peer sports betting operator, but that setup required state-by-state gambling licenses and was abandoned three years later. 

In 2024, the company switched to a dual-currency system similar to that offered by sweepstakes casinos. That setup allowed it to operated in all jurisdictions, but still required navigating a state-by-state legal landscape. 

In January of this year the company applied to the CFTC to become a Designated Contract Market (DCM). On June 16, the application was approved and by Aug. 4 the app re-launched nationwide. One day later, the lawsuits started. 

Novig sued New York on Aug. 5, followed by Massachusetts, New Mexico, and Washington on Aug. 6. On Aug. 14, the company added Wisconsin to its crosshairs. 

Those states have taken action against other prediction market operators, suggesting that their contracts are essentially sports betting and that they are operating within state lines despite not having proper licensing.

Novig's lawsuits have been attempts to force states not to impose the same rules on Novig that they impose on other prediction market operators. Wisconsin has already denied a similar lawsuit launched by the CFTC, and New York declined to issue a temporary restraining order.