3 Current MLB Players Who Could Join the 3,000 Hit Club

Scott Cullen

Last Updated: April 23, 2022 9:51 AM EDT • 4 minute read

In the aftermath of Detroit Tigers’ Miguel Cabrera reaching 3,000 career hits Saturday afternoon vs. the Colorado Rockies, it should be understood that this is a rare milestone that is only going to be more rare as time goes on.

RELATED: Cabrera Joins 3,000 Hit Club

What is required to get to 3,000 hits? Longevity and productivity.

There are some great hitters in Major League Baseball but age comes for everyone and once players are into their mid-30s and beyond, production is really rare.

Aside from Cabrera, St. Louis Cardinals legend Albert Pujols is the only other active player with 3,000 hits.

Consider that Cabrera had 2,519 hits at the end of his age 33 season, 2016. That means it has taken more than five years for him to get the next 481 hits. There was an injury-shortened season and a COVID-shortened season in there, so this milestone might have been achieved by age 37, but it has been several years since Miguel Cabrera was a valuable hitter and this is a player who was one of the premier hitters of his generation at his peak.

Robinson Cano is at 2,630 and, at age 39, is probably not getting there. Before PED suspensions and a COVID-shortened season he might have had a shot.

The modern approach of hitters in Major League Baseball is not even geared towards getting hits. The three-true-outcome approach of home runs, walks, and strikeouts dominates play, so it is going to be difficult for others to reach that milestone.

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Here are the 3 active candidates who one day might be able to join the 3,000 hit club:

Juan Soto

The Washington Nationals right fielder has been a star since arriving in the major leagues as a 19-year-old. He has a .300 career batting average and is currently has 500 career hits already in his age 23 season. The one potential hang-up for Soto is that, as an elite hitter, he is not afraid to take a walk. He led MLB with 145 walks last season and has 16 walks in 16 games this season. That said, if you are looking for the best bet to average 150 hits over 20 seasons, Soto is the guy. Soto is the current favorite to take home NL MVP at DraftKings with +400 odds.

https://twitter.com/SlangsOnSports/status/1460681779640078340?s=20&t=7zlMdO35nOZd0aBDmEGAEQ

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Although Guerrero Jr. brings more power to the plate, leading MLB with 48 home runs last season, he is also aggressive enough at the plate that he has a chance to accumulate a lot of hits. As it is, the 23-year-old Blue Jays first baseman has 388 hits and is one of the most feared sluggers in the game. The challenge for young players like Soto and Guerrero Jr. is taking the outstanding starts to their careers and carrying it forward for another 15 seasons. The durability, consistency, and talent required for such a long time weeds out a lot of great players. Guerrero currently has AL MVP odds of +350 at DraftKings.

https://twitter.com/SportsCenter/status/1514397693568696321?s=20&t=7zlMdO35nOZd0aBDmEGAEQ

Mike Trout

The Angels outfielder is older than Soto and Guerrero Jr. but Trout reached the majors as a 19-year-old and that early start is frequently necessary to accumulate so many hits. Now 30, Trout has 1,428 hits so it is going to take another decade, but the concern for Trout might be that he is starting to run into injuries. He was extremely durable early in his career, started to miss some time between 2017 and 2019, 2020 was a COVID-shortened season and then he was limited to just 36 games in 2021. If he can stay healthy, Trout may have a shot at 3,000 hits, but that is a risky proposition at this stage of his career. Currently. Trout, who's has missed a few games already in 2022 due to injury, has odds of +1200 to win AL MVP.

https://twitter.com/MLB/status/1514759153826344963?s=20&t=7zlMdO35nOZd0aBDmEGAEQ

If that milestone is risky for someone with the pedigree of Mike Trout, the best hitter of the past decade, what chance will others have?

Others

Houston Astros second baseman Jose Altuve (1,763 career hits) and Los Angeles Dodgers first baseman Freddie Freeman (1,722 career hits) have both been very productive, but they are in their thirties and have fewer than 1,800 hits. Could they go for eight more seasons at 150-plus hits per season?

There are a number of players in their late twenties that have more than 1,000 hits – Bryce Harper, Xander Bogaerts, Mookie Betts, Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez – but it is a long way from 1,000 or 1,200 to get all the way to 3,000, especially when considering how aging curves are going to lead to diminished production.

Among players in their mid-twenties, the top candidates might be Atlanta Braves second baseman Ozzie Albies, who has 627 hits at age 25 and Boston Red Sox third baseman Rafael Devers, who has 615 hits at age 25.

When projecting out so far in the future, the risk needs to be acknowledged. For any of these players to reach 3,000 hits a lot will have to go right in their careers. Good health and production over such a long period of time is extremely rare, which is why Miguel Cabrera deserves to be celebrated for his accomplishment.

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Written by:
Scott Cullen

Scott Cullen is SportsbookReview.com's Sports Betting Analyst and is one of the most well-known sports betting writers on the web. He wrote about fantasy sports for TSN for many years, and he has also written for The Athletic, NHL.com, The Hockey News, Monkey Knife Fight, and McKeen's Hockey. Born in Kitchener, Ontario, Canada, Cullen was an Economics major at Wilfrid Laurier University in Waterloo, Ontario and played for the Laurier Golden Hawks hockey team.