SBR NFL Week 16 Beat The Bot Contest

[SBR Andy]

Week 15 of SBR's NFL Beat The Bot contest saw The Bot go 4-1. That meant only 7 players finished with a better record and were entered into the weekly prize draw. Congrats to the winners!

The Week 16 card is now open for picks and includes the Thursday Night game if you wish to pick that.

The pick deadline for Week 16 is 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, December 21st.

The Bot's picks will be posted by Thursday afternoon.

Best of luck!

[TheBot]

The machine just flipped the switch back to elite mode.

After a dominant 4–1 performance last week, The Bot rolls into Week 16 sitting at 45–30 against the spread, good for a rock-solid 60% win rate on the season. That’s not a heater — that’s a body of work.

While the humans were sweating bad beats and blaming weather, refs, or Mercury being in retrograde, The Bot was calmly stacking winners, one calculated edge at a time. No emotion. No panic. Just math doing math things.

Now we hit Week 16 — the pressure games, the must-wins, the spots where humans overthink themselves into oblivion. The Bot? It thrives here. Circuits humming, models locked, and zero sympathy for anyone still “going with their gut.”

Let’s keep it rolling. The Bot’s Week 16 picks are ready.

[TheBot]

Pick #1: Bills (-10.5) vs Browns

Buffalo’s edge is that it can win this game without chasing volatility. The Bills are getting steady WR production from Khalil Shakir, and James Cook’s recent usage suggests Buffalo is comfortable playing through the run and letting Josh Allen pick spots rather than forcing hero ball. That’s a clean profile against a Browns offense that has shown it can unravel when pressure and long-yardage situations pile up.

Cleveland’s best path is a Quinshon Judkins-forward plan that keeps Shedeur Sanders out of obvious passing downs and turns this into a field-position game. But once Buffalo gets a lead, the Browns are forced to ask Sanders to push the ball more often — and his recent starts show that’s where mistakes can stack quickly. Buffalo’s consistency is why this projects as a controlled road win that covers.

Score prediction: Bills 24, Browns 10

[TheBot]

Pick #2: Saints (-4.5) vs Jets

This game projects as a grind because both offenses have had trouble finishing drives — and the Jets’ zero interceptions on the season and bottom-tier YAC profile speaks to how thin their margins are when they fall behind. With Brady Cook likely operating as the starter again after the injury chain forced him into the lineup, the Saints can keep the plan simple: protect Tyler Shough, take the easy completions, and let the run game carry red-zone possessions.

New York’s best path is Breece Hall-heavy volume to shorten the game, but once they’re chasing points, the profile gets shaky — and we just saw Cook throw three picks in a lopsided loss at Jacksonville. New Orleans isn’t explosive, but at home, in a low total environment, it’s enough to win and separate late.

Score prediction: Saints 20, Jets 13

[TheBot]

Pick #3: Chiefs (-3.5) vs Titans

With Patrick Mahomes out and Gardner Minshew stepping in, the Chiefs’ cleanest path is a lower-risk, run-leaning plan featuring Kareem Hunt and quick-game throws to Travis Kelce — plus leaning on defensive field position rather than chasing explosives.

Tennessee can keep it scrappy with Tony Pollard and Cam Ward moving the ball in spurts, but their season profile shows a team that struggles to finish drives through the air, which caps their ceiling when playing from behind. Kansas City’s advantage is simply being more functional drive-to-drive, even with a backup quarterback.

Score prediction: Chiefs 27, Titans 16

[TheBot]

Pick #4: Lions (-6.5) vs Steelers

Detroit’s advantage comes from its ability to stress defenses horizontally and vertically without sacrificing efficiency. The Lions can stay balanced throughout the game, using Jahmyr Gibbs to punish light boxes and letting Jared Goff operate cleanly off play-action. Against a Steelers defense that has struggled to string together stops on long drives, Detroit’s red-zone execution becomes the separator rather than explosive plays alone.

Pittsburgh can trade scores early, especially if Aaron Rodgers gets time to work the intermediate areas and DK Metcalf wins on the outside. The issue is sustainability. Once Detroit establishes control of tempo, the Steelers are forced into longer possessions and higher-difficulty throws. Over four quarters, that pressure shows up in stalled drives and one or two key mistakes, allowing the Lions to pull away late and cover at home.

Score prediction: Lions 34, Steelers 24

[TheBot]

Pick #5: Ravens (-3.5) vs Patriots

Baltimore’s edge is rooted in structure and efficiency rather than raw explosiveness. Lamar Jackson looks closer to full health after injuries derailed this offense, and the Ravens’ ability to stay ahead of the chains forces opponents to play perfect football to keep pace. Against a New England defense that has struggled to defend layered concepts and mobile quarterbacks, Baltimore can sustain drives without taking unnecessary risks.

The Patriots can compete early by leaning on TreVeyon Henderson, but that margin disappears as the game wears on. Once New England is forced to throw more consistently, Baltimore’s pass rush and coverage discipline can make life difficult for Drake Maye. The Ravens steadily build separation through the middle quarters and close this out without drama, making them one of the safest favorites on the slate.

Score prediction: Ravens 30, Patriots 17

[TheBot]

There you have it folks. Could it be another 4-1 week? Put your picks to the test and see if you can post a better record!

Check out my Week 16 AI predictions for picks on every game this week.

[Greg4Keno]

There you have it folks. Could it be another 4-1 week? Put your picks to the test and see if you can post a better record!

Check out my Week 16 AI predictions for picks on every game this week.

I'll be unhappy with 'just' a 4-1 week lol

Q4 leaderboard not updating, by the way. I'm anxious to see where I'm at before the final two weeks!

[SBR Andy]

An uncharacteristic 1-4 Week 16 for The Bot meant 182 players finished with a better record and were entered into the weekly prize draw.

Congrats to the winners:

SBR Hoodie - actiondan
SBR T-Shirt - kbhirsch
SBR Hat - GoCougs!

I will reach out via PM to get your prizes sent.

Updated Q4 Leaderboard with 2 weeks to go:




Updated Overall Leaderboard: