PSG vs. Barcelona Prediction, Picks & Odds for Tuesday's Champions League Match
There aren't many games bigger than the clash of European giants that we get on Tuesday, and my PSG vs. Barcelona prediction tries to sort though the noise of domestic domination to find the best values.
The Champions League showdown at Parc des Princes in Paris gets started at 3 p.m. ET (Paramount+), with both sides lined evenly at +145, while the draw carries a +333 tag. I'm targeting an Over and an Under in the volume game, one for each team, and honing in on two plus-money player props that could come through.
PSG vs. Barcelona predictions & best bets
See our experts' soccer picks.
| Best bets | Best odds | Wager (units) |
|---|---|---|
| Barcelona Over 14.5 shots | -120 via bet365 | 0.5 units to profit 0.42 units |
| PSG Under 6.5 shots on target | -150 via bet365 | 0.5 units to profit 0.33 units |
| Lucas Digne 2+ fouls committed | +120 via bet365 | 0.25 units to profit 0.3 units |
| Dani Olmo 3+ shots | +150 via bet365 | 0.25 units to profit 0.38 units |
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PSG vs. Barcelona best bet
Check out all of our soccer betting analysis and expert predictions this season.
Barcelona Over 14.5 shots (-120)
Barcelona's attacking volume gives them a path to 15 shots here, even though PSG will be the toughest opponent they've faced this season. The closest they've come to this line in their last five is 18 shots, and they've averaged north of 20 along that stretch (but again, not PSG).
Nuno Mendes' absence is leaving an inviting avenue on the right through Lamine Yamal. His ability to attack the left-back, then cut inside, can create shooting opportunities for himself and his teammates. I'm not banking on Barcelona to enjoy their usual domestic possession numbers; that's not reasonable, but they don't need to get to this level.
An early PSG goal would just increase urgency for the visitors.
🆚 Who will win PSG vs. Barcelona?
PSG should find their chances with Barcelona's defense a little reshuffled, but the visitors have Yamal's right-sided threat that doesn't have to deal with Mendes. No doubt the Parisians have a slight home edge, but I'm not seeing enough between either side to confidently project them to claim three points.
Score prediction: PSG 2, Barcelona 2
More PSG vs. Barcelona expert picks
PSG Under 6.5 shots on target (-150)
Paris can, and will, create plenty of shots and threaten Barcelona's backline throughout the game. That doesn't necessarily mean they'll get seven on target. Their domestic numbers are just over 7.0 and nearly 70% possession, but Barcelona's midfield control will make it much harder to replicate those numbers or sustain pressure.
Competing against Rodri and Pedri's pressure, plus Barcelona's relentless press, will not make it easy for PSG to consistently reach threatening shooting positions. While Dembele and co. will find opportunities, dangerous transitions don't necessarily produce SOT volume. My projections put PSG closer to five shots on target, but I'd prefer the extra buffer on the 6.5 line over the more attractive price on the Under 5.5 (+120).
Lucas Digne 2+ fouls committed (+120)
Digne is about to find out the very definition of having this hands full. His job on Tuesday will include the unenviable task of having to slow down Yamal, and that's where this play is generated from.
Yamal's dribbling is lethal (4.4/90 successful domestically), forcing defenders to make repeated recovery challenges. That dribbling and his ability to change direction on a dime while moving inside onto his left foot force full-backs to choose between ceding territory and making a difficult tackle.
The +120 line here has a breakeven number of 45.5%, and with Yamal being fouled more than 1.5 times per 90, I'll roll the dice on a quarter-unit on Digne.
Dani Olmo 3+ shots (+150)
This is in large part a price play while looking for a path to target Barcelona's midfield. Across 348 minutes in domestic play he's put up 14 shots (3.62/90), so he's not afraid to let them fly.
His playtime has been pretty variable recently, so it's important to get this one at a site that offers "sub on, play on" so you don't lose out if he comes off early. He should occupy the space behind Raphinha, which means he'll be in position to accept at least some of Yamal's crosses. He'll also be primed to take advantage of second-chance balls off blocked shots, crosses, and loose clearances (although I don't expect we'll see much of that from PSG).
I'm only going a quarter-unit here, and I have this projected out to hit a little under half the time. But that's still substantially better than the 40% needed to break-even on this price in the long haul.
PSG vs. Barcelona key stats
All stats below are for the Champions League season unless otherwise noted.
| Paris Saint-Germain | Barcelona | |
|---|---|---|
| Record (Champions League league phase) | 2-0-0 | 2-0-0 |
| Home/Away Record (Champions League) | 1-0-0 home | 1-0-0 away |
| Recent form (all comps) | WWWWWW | WWWWWW |
| Goals for | 10 | 9 |
| xG | 6.40 | 4.83 |
| Goals against | 3 | 2 |
| xGA | 3.39 | 0.95 |
| Average possession | 59.1% | 71.3% |
PSG vs. Barcelona odds
PSG vs. Barcelona projected lineups
Here are the projected lineups for PSG vs. Barcelona; subject to change:
| PSG (4-3-3) | Barcelona (4-2-3-1) |
|---|---|
| Safonov (GK) | Garcia (GK) |
| Hakimi (D) | Cancelo (D) |
| Marquinhos (D) | Cubarsi (D) |
| Pacho (D) | Martin (D) |
| Digne (D) | Espart (D) |
| Neves (M) | Rodri (M) |
| Vitinha (M) | Pedri (M) |
| Ruiz (M) | Lamine Yamal (M) |
| Doue (F) | Olmo (M) |
| Dembele (F) | Gordon (M) |
| Kvaratskhelia (F) | Raphinha (F) |
How to watch PSG vs. Barcelona
- Date: Tuesday, Oct. 20
- Kickoff: 3 p.m. ET
- Location: Parc des Princes (Paris)
- TV/Streaming: Paramount+
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